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73.The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership. "Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them." 10年前，长期汽车租赁在我们Mohilia国家出现，成为对于汽车完全所有权的一种补充，这种租赁业务的受欢迎度也逐渐增加。过去五年的每一年中，租赁新车的人数都超过了买新车的人数。Mohilia的汽车平均使用时间为6年；因此，如果新车租赁在今年又一次超过购买，有可能大多数驾驶员将会开租来的车而不是私人拥有的车。因此，我们应该把业务重点从出售车辆转向租赁车辆。
论据：
1false comparison 租新车的人数超过买新车的人数不能说明租车的人数在增加，应该自己和自己比，到底是不是租车的人一年比一年多，很有可能虽然租新车的人数超过买新车的人数，但这个数字是在逐年下降的。
推断：
2cause-and-effect 租新车的多了，不能说明买新车的就少了。出租者还是要买。这条觉得别扭
汽车的平均使用时间是6年,六年后租车商也要买新车了,这个是卖车人的商业良机啊!~
结论：
3incomplete thoughts – advantage and disadvantage 首先，我们熟悉出租业务吗，这个市场的竞争是否已经白热化了，其次，即使我们可以转行，那么出租的profit是否高于销售的，如果不是，那就没必要转移经营重点了。
86.The following appeared in a memo from a member of the Clark City School Board. "Mason Elementary School is faced with a shortage of classroom space. At the same time, parents in our district are increasingly expressing the desire to see improvements in their children's reading abilities. Therefore, we should reduce the number of physical education classes at Mason Elementary and convert part of the gymnasium to class-room space. The school will gain the additional space for classrooms without the cost of extending the building and can use the time that students would have spent in physical education classes to provide more reading instruction. This plan will lead to improvements in students' reading skills." Mason小学面临着教室空间短缺的问题。同时，我们区的家长对于看到他们的孩子阅读能力提高的愿望越来越强烈。因此，我们应该减少Mason小学体育课的数量，把部分体育场馆改造成教室。学校无需花费资金扩建校舍就可以获得更多的教室空间，并且可以把学生原本花在体育课的时间用于提供更多的阅读课程。这一计划将会带来学生阅读能力的提高。
1Incomplete thoughts—利和弊：
Gymnasium是否够大，将gymnasium 改成教室能否满足教室短缺的需要。是不是最好的方法，其他的方法，改建会议室，改建音乐教室等。
2 cause-and-effect因果关系错
增加阅读课程时间=\=>可以提高阅读水平，还取决于师资力量，教学方法等其他因素。
Even if2可行
3 作者没有考虑取消体育课的后果，在小孩上小学的时候就过分强调学习知识，而不注重体育锻炼，对于他们的将来发展是很不利的。
101.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that makes breakfast cereals. "In a recent study, subjects who ate soybeans at least five times per week had significantly lower cholesterol levels than subjects who ate no soy products. By fortifying our Wheat-O cereal with soy protein, we can increase sales by appealing to additional consumers who are concerned about their health. This new version of Wheat-O should increase company profits and, at the same time, improve the health of our customers." 在最近的一次调查中，那些每周至少吃五次大豆soybeans的调查对象的胆固醇cholesterol值比不吃大豆制品的人低很多。通过在我们的Wheat-O麦片中添加大豆蛋白，我们可以通过吸引更多的关注自身健康的消费者来增加销量。这种新的Wheat-O应该能够增加公司的利润，并且同时促进我们消费者的健康。
论据：
1 false comparison 应该是吃大豆的人自己与自己进行比较，而不是吃与没吃的进行比较，有可能一周吃五次大豆的人身体本来就很好。
推断：
2 无据
没有证据显示消费者很关心健康问题，也没有说有多少人关注。
吃面片的不见得喜欢大豆蛋白,导致消费群减少
关心健康的人不一定喜欢吃麦片,而是直接吃大豆制品
结论：
Even if
即使是如上面所说，那么
3．Cause-and-effect错误 新产品=\=>我们可以增加公司的利润，和消费者的健康
Profit problem 大豆只对身体有好处吗？是否对某些疾病有副作用。(这个太牵强了)
加大豆蛋白增加了原料,成本升高!
首先,涨价?大家都不买了!其次,价钱不变?利润减少,如果销量不加,那利润就不会降低!
104.One kind of brain-scanning device is used by doctors to monitor normal as well as abnormal activity in a patient's brain. The device provides precise measurements of blood flow in the brain, a known indicator of how the brain is working. Unfortunately, the device requires patients to remain completely still with their heads in the scanning machine, which makes a very loud noise. Under these uncomfortable conditions, it is doubtful that doctors can get accurate measurements. A new head-mounted device that measures eye movements rather than blood flow and allows patients to move around will undoubtedly provide better brain measurements. Thus, the new head-mounted device should replace the older device at all hospitals and research institutions. 一种脑扫描装置brain-scanning device被医生用于检测患者脑部的正常和非正常活动。这种装置可以提供对于脑部血流的精确测量，脑部的血流是脑部运作状态的已知标志。然而，这种装置需要患者的头部位于将会产生很大噪声的扫描仪器里面时保持完全静止。在这种不舒适的条件下，医生能否得到准确的测量结果是可疑的。一种新的检测眼球活动而不是血流的头戴式仪器允许患者活动，它无疑将会提供更好的脑部测量。因此，这种新式头戴仪器应该在所有医院和研究机构中代替老式装置。
1 差异概念：有噪声 =\= 影响测量结果
没有证据显示是这样的，也没有报告说因为噪声，导致结果误差，从而导致medical accidents
2 cause-and-effect 错新设备=\=>可以得到更好的测量
作者为提供这样的证据，完全有可能，由于眼镜比较敏感，导致测量结果不那么可信
结论：
3 充分必要
如果新设备非常贵，而且需要进行 brain-scanning 的人很少，那么并不是所有的医院都学要安装这种设备。
109.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Maple City newspaper. "Twenty years ago Pine City established strict laws designed to limit the number of new buildings that could be constructed in the city. Since that time the average housing prices in Pine City have increased considerably. Chestnut City, which is about the same size as Pine City, has over the past twenty years experienced an increase in average housing prices similar to Pine City, but Chestnut City never established any laws that limit new building construction. So it is clear that laws limiting new construction have no effect on average housing prices. So if Maple City were to establish strict laws that limit new building construction, these laws will have no effect on average housing prices." 20年前Pine City建立了严格的法令来限制该市未来建造的高层建筑的数量。从那以后Pine City的平均房价显著上涨。和Pine City差不多同等规模的Chestnut City在过去20年中经历了和Pine City类似的房价上涨，但Chestnut City从未建立任何限制高层建筑的法令。因此限制高层的法令对于平均房价没有影响。所以如果Maple City建立限制新的高层建筑的法令的话，这种法令不会影响平均房价。
这篇由三个城市进行比较不能随便说一个false analogy，与一般的题又不同大家看看一看，提一提建议
1 cause-and-effect Pane city房价上涨就是因为有strict laws 该市可能地处偏远经济不发达，所以市政府制定了措施，来刺激市场，导致房价上涨
(房地产炒作啊!,政府炒房价可能性不大吧?)
2 而Chestnut 的房价一直平稳发展，没有必要进行管制
3 false analogy, 因为这个城市M的具体情况可能与P，C均不同，所以不能说不会影响房价。但是觉得这么说有点空
112.The following proposal was raised at a meeting of the Franklin City Council. "Franklin Airport, which is on a bay, is notorious for flight delays. The airport management wants to build new runways to increase capacity but can only do so by filling in 900 acres of the bay. The Bay Coalition organization objects that filling in the bay will disrupt tidal patterns and harm wildlife. But the airport says that if it is permitted to build its new runways, it will fund the restoration of 1,000 acres of wetlands in areas of the bay that have previously been damaged by industrialization. This plan should be adopted, for it is necessary to reduce the flight delays, and the wetlands restoration part of the plan ensures that the bay's environment will actually be helped rather than hurt." 位于海湾的Franklin机场因其航班的晚点而臭名昭著。机场管理者想建一些新跑道来增加机场容量，但这只能通过填埋900亩海湾来实现。Bay Coalition组织反对说填埋将会扰乱潮汐规律并对生物造称坏。但机场方面声称如果修建新跑道的计划被批准，他们将会出资重整海湾以前因工业化而被破坏的地区的湿地。这一计划应该被采纳，因为减少航班误点是必须的，而且计划中重整湿地wetlands的部分将会保证海湾的环境将会得到改而不是被破坏。
论据：
1 cause-and-effect 增加跑道=\=>改善晚点 晚点可能是因为：管理不善，飞机太少，性能太差
2 差异概念：重整海湾=\=治理潮汐 作者未能说明治理后能弥补填埋海湾造成的破坏
3 充分必要：是不是还有其他的方法，比如说，在这个地区问题既然这么复杂，还不如在其他地区再建一个新的机场 | 
发表于 2006-12-12 01:03:55
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