第一次写,模版的痕迹重了些:P 欢迎大家拍砖!
147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine. "Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
The arguer advocates that Whirlwind can expect a great increase in the sale of its video game products. To support this recommendation, the arguer provides the evidence that Whirlwind has introduced several video games that provide lifelike graphics to which, according to the outcome of a recent survey, video-game players pay most of their attention. In addition, the arguer points out that Whirlwind has made effort to advertise its products to people form 10 to 25 years old who are the most important consumers of video games. However, I find that the argument is unconvincing on several grounds.
In the first place, the arguer fails to provide strong evidence to demonstrate that video players will purchase these games with lifelike graphics. For one thing, it is possible that the interviewees of the survey can not represent the whole population who play video games and in fact more video-game players do not like such games. For another thing, even assuming that it’s true that all the video-game players value games of this kind, it is also most likely players will not like these games introduced by Whirlwind because many other factors, such as the price of the game, the plots of the story and the level of difficulty, will determine the players will buy a certain game or not. Without considering and ruling out these possibilities mentioned above, the arguer cannot convince us that the game introduced by Whirlwind will be popular.
In the second place, the arguer's assumption that depending on the advertising campaign the sale of Whirlwind games will increase dramatically is unwarranted. It is possible that who prefer video games with lifelike graphics are not the young generation between 10 and 25 but those who are older, form 25 to 35 for example. In addition, how, when, and where these advertisements are carried out, about which the arguer provide no information at all, will also determine whether this advertising campaign is effective. Without providing enough information to justify that Whirlwind has made a successful advertising campaign, the arguer's precipitation is unsustainable.
In sum, the argument is not well reasoned. To make the precipitation logically acceptable, the arguer must provide more accurate data to demonstrate that the survey based on which Whirlwind designed video games is credible and its interviewees are representative. Additionally, the arguer must also provide evidence to eliminate the above mentioned possibilities that advertisements made by Whirlwind are not effective enough to win the video game market.
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[ 本帖最后由 yotta 于 2006-12-30 20:33 编辑 ] |