提纲argument235,214,179,57...71 微观状态小组第四次作业 诚恳排砖

aunknownUID: 2173661

TOPIC: ARGUMENT235 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.
"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."

Outline:
1.作者错误的假设了老年人已经成为他们听众的大多数，并且他们也喜欢听新闻。 原来老年人只占1%，现在2% 也可以说成是大幅度的增加。听摇滚得人仍是主流。另外，老年人喜欢老式歌曲，因为他们怀旧。
2.唱片买的少不等于没人喜欢听摇滚。可能经济下滑，人们没有钱买；或者人们现在喜欢用mp3听。
3.false analogy. 别的城市人的偏好可能跟我们的人不一样。仅仅，在选举前的调查不能说明以后人们不喜欢听摇滚。选举仅仅是一个短暂的事件，人们可能等选举完后，还是喜欢听摇滚。


TOPIC: ARGUMENT214 - In each city in the region of Treehaven, the majority of the money spent on government-run public school education comes from taxes that each city government collects. The region's cities differ, however, in the value they place on public education. For example, Parson City typically budgets twice as much money per year as Blue City does for its public schools-even though both cities have about the same number of residents. It seems clear, therefore, that Parson City residents care more about public school education than do Blue City residents.

Outline:
1. The author fails to assume that the percentage of the educational budges in the total budges of PC is higher than those in BC when there are the same  population in both cities. Perhaps due to the disparity of economic growth, the percentage of educational budges in total ones in BC is higer.
2. Moreover, whether the number of public schools and the students in both cities is same is open to doubt. Perhaps PC has better the quality of teaching which attracts many students of BC, or the born rate in PC is higher and so there are more children compared to BC. In addition, the there are more private schools in BC and the budges is less.
3. Finally, even if the government in PC indeed focus more on the education, this does not mean that their residents care more about public shool education  that do BC residents. Perhaps the residents in PC is focus more on the private shcools because of their favorable environment and facilities


TOPIC: ARGUMENT179 - The following is a memorandum written by the director of personnel to the president of the Cedar Corporation.
"It would be a mistake to rehire the Good-Taste Company to supply the food in our employee cafeteria next year. It is the second most expensive caterer in the city. In addition, its prices have risen in each of the last three years, and it refuses to provide meals for people on special diets. Just last month three employees complained to me that they no longer eat in the cafeteria because they find the experience 'unbearable.' Our company should instead hire Discount Foods. Discount is a family-owned local company and it offers a varied menu of fish and poultry. I recently tasted a sample lunch at one of the many companies that Discount serves and it was delicious-an indication that hiring Discount will lead to improved employee satisfaction."

Outline:
1. First of all, the author fails to assume that there are an unreasonable price and bad service in the GTC only since that the increasing  price in last three years and the complaints of three employees last month. Perhaps the prices of foods increase univeraslly. In addition, there are the three complanints  in the whole year, or the three employees quarraled with the servants in GTC merely because they were scolded by their leader on that day.
2. even if the GTC cannot be rehire, only by virtue of the taste of the arguer himself, it is difficult for us to convince that all employees like the tastes of DF.
perhaps the arguer has a special kind of predilection, such as liking  piquent tastes. Also, even the arguer has been bribed by DF.
3. Finally, although there are a varied menu of fish and poultry, this also does not mean we should choose DF. There are a myriad of other alteratives which possibly are ignored, such as the price of them, the nutrition of them, the salutary conditions, and so forth.


TOPIC: ARGUMENT57 - The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.
"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."
Outline:
1. First of all, the reliability of the study is open to doubt. on the one hand, there is no information provided by the author regarding the background of patients, such as age, gender, health conditions. On the other hand, whether their other treating measures are same except for the difference of taking Z is kept unknown. Those who take Z may simultaneously adopt other treatment like radio thearapy.
2. Moveover, the author also confused a crucial concept, that is, the study that the first-time ulcer patients can prevent the reoccurrence of ulcer by taking Z does not show that the patients who have the second-time ulcer, even the more-time can. Perhaps there occur some physilogical change after more time ulcer, which enable Z not to take similar effect to patients as ever.
3. even if Z will be effective in preventing those who have first -time ulcers or more times from reoccurrence of ulcer, to claim that it can prevent the first-time ulcer from occurring is unconvincing. Perhaps Z can promote the body to produce immunization on the basis of the inherent changes of body after the occurrence of ulcer.



TOPIC: ARGUMENT237 - The following appeared as part of an article in a local Beauville newspaper.
"According to a government report, last year the city of Dillton reduced its corporate tax rate by 15 percent; at the same time, it began offering relocation grants and favorable rates on city utilities to any company that would relocate to Dillton. Within 18 months, two manufacturing companies moved to Dillton, where they employ a total of 300 people. Therefore, the fastest way for Beauville to stimulate economic development and hence reduce unemployment is to provide tax incentives and other financial inducements that encourage private companies to relocate here."
a
Outline:
1.First of all, Whether the city have activated its economical development and reduce the unemployment rate is unknown in that there is no evidence provided by the author. The related economical signs, like national gross revenue, the revenue of people, and so forth. On the other hand, if the number of unemployment is 30,000,  or the 300 people employed have jobs previously.
2. even if D is successful, this does not mean that the same scenario will occur in B through adopting similar measures as D's. There are a myriad of huge disparities between two cities, such as geographical place, safety conditions, culture custome and so on.
3.even if the similar measures will take postive effects in B, to claim that they is "the fastest way" to stimulate economic development and so reduce unemplyment is suspicious. There are actually a lot of measures to achive the objectives. Such as improvement in the infrastructrue facilities, enacting favorable policy to attract the talents, and developing the local cultural and tourial sources.



TOPIC: ARGUMENT232 - The following appeared in a memo from the sales manager of Eco-Power, a company that manufactures tools and home appliances.
"Many popular radio and television commercials use memorable tunes and song lyrics to call attention to the products being advertised. Indeed, a recent study of high school students showed that 85 percent could easily recognize the tunes used to advertise leading soft drinks and fast-food restaurants. Despite our company's extensive advertising in magazines during the past year, sales of our home appliances declined. Therefore, to boost company profits, we should now switch to advertisements featuring a distinctive song."

Outline:
1.First of all, the author assumes that the decline in sales of our home appliances is due to their substantially advertising in magazines during the past; however, he or she possibly overlook other some alternatives, such as the quality of their products, the style of theirs, even the sales conditions in general appliance industry.
2.Another problems is that the study regarding some high students does explain nothing because high students are not our objectives to aim at. In fact, the majority of our clients are those who have their own salary, especially some homewives. No evidence shows that they like the kind of advertisment.
3.even if the essential reason for the dwinding sales of home appliances is attributable to the advertisement, it is suspicious that the company can boost its profits by reverting the means of advertisement. Perhaps there will occur a powerful competor or the expense in producing the new style of advertisement is so high that it will offset the possible excessive profits



TOPIC: ARGUMENT71 - Copper occurs in nature mixed with other minerals and valuable metals in ore, and the proportion of copper in the ore can vary considerably. Until fairly recently, the only way to extract pure copper from ore was by using a process that requires large amounts of electric energy, especially if the proportion of copper in the ore is low. New copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity than the older method to process the same amount of raw ore, especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Therefore, we can expect the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly.
Outline:
1.First of all, the author assumes that the new copper-extracting technologies will be adopted in geneal copper-extracting industry; however, no evidence provided by he or she to substantiate this. Perharps the new technologies need huge invests, which likely lead to the large decline in profits of corporation. or the new technologies can bring about huge water and air pollution.
2. Moreover, whether the new technologies can save electricity is open to doubt since that no evidece is provided by the author when the proportion of copper in the ore is low. If the majority of ore used by the industry contain low proportion of copper, and the new techologies consume the same electricity as the old technologies when the proportion of copper in the ore is low, the result is conviceable.
3. Even assuming that the new technologies can save electricity when process all varies of proportion of copper ore using, to claim that the significant decline in amount of electricity in the copper-extraction industry will occur in furture is ungrounded. perphaps the rapid rise in the need in market leads to the large increase in production.