argument45 【CSMY作文互改小组第六次作业】休整两天之后重振旗鼓

solohanUID: 2279589

一个星期以来写的东西都没有进步，越写越烂，于是花了两天的时间再把官方范文好好研究了一下，但是限时还是失败了55

ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

WORDS: 342          TIME: 0:29:39          DATE: 2007-1-20
Edited: 510

Why the deer populations decline is a complex question. The editorial simply attributes it to the global warming seems too arbitrary.

What the global warming cause is the melting of sea ice, but where these impacts happened is not sure. Maybe the sea ice mentioned in the reports refers to other places far away from Canada's arctic region. Maybe the sea ice in the area is thick enough that the warming effect has little influence on the ice. Furthermore, as the editor says that only some of the year is cold to cover the sea with ice is enough, the global warming may not melt the ice all through the year, so deer are more likely to have opportunity during a year to cross the island. Without the details on the warming effect, it is questionable that whether the global warming serious enough to influence the ice in the islands where deer live on.

Underlying the prediction of melting ice, the editorial has an assumption that the ice path is the only way for deer to move. But what is the fact? Possibly, there are other ways to traverse the islands. If the traditional way is destroyed, the deer have the ability to find another road. They editorial falsely consider the way as the only one.

Another assumption in the conclusion is migration determines the fate of the deer. However, common sense tell us that the deer number decrease have lots of reasons to be responsible. As the editorial proposed in the journal, the plants may be a main factor to the survival of deer. Maybe plants in these areas have reduced that the deer have little food. Besides, the deer may be killed by the local habitants, or killed by another kind of animals in an increasing number. Even assuming migration way was impeded, there is no evidence to reveal that the deer would die for this. They may adapt to the environment, or find another method to deal with the climate change, like moving to other places. It is unconvincing to attribute the death of deer to the migration.

From another viewpoint, even assuming the ice indeed melt in that region, the deer may die of higher temperature itself, which affects deer's internal biological mechanisms, not of the ice melting. The editorial supposes an unfounded relationship between global warming, ice melting and deer death.

Finally, the editorial’s conclusion is based on a report from local hunters, leaving the evidence dubious and unreliable. Not seeing does not justify nonexistence. The hunters lack the professional observational skills to count the number of deer, they may fail to find deer outside of their visual field.

Only when there is scientific monitoring and investigation is the deer number ensured. The editorial may get more support if he have evidence that the ice is the only way for deer migration, and the global warming indeed rise the temperature in a extend that the way is unable to walk. Moreover, the editorial should rule out other factors affect the survival besides the migration patterns.