Argu45--<0706G － CSMY作文互改小组-第6次作业>

meichengyuUID: 2121098

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 427          TIME: 0:29:33          DATE: 2007-1-22

Citing several unfounded assumptions as well as some dubious evidence and presenting some simple analysis, the author asserts that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. However, we do not have to look very far to see the line of the reasoning suffers from several critical flaws which will be discussed as follows.

To begin with, obviously, the author quoted some problematic reports from local hunters about the populations of the arctic deer. No information about the reports such as when were the reports reported, how were the reports conducted, how many people involved in these reports and whether the reports were representative enough were listed in this argument. It is possible that such reports were out of date or even faked by some journalists who want to make news. Thus, without providing the evidence about these questions, the conclusion from the reports is unconvincing and baseless.

Furthermore, there is another point that may also weaken the argument. The author only considered one possibility that could cause the decline of arctic deer which is the global warming trends. Unfortunately, other important factors that could probably cause it were ignored by the arguer, such as the hunting of the hunters, the prey of the other animals. It is also possible that, because of the large amount of hunting of arctic deer and the increase of their natural enemies, the populations of the arctic deer declined. So, from analysis of this angle, the conclusion of the decline reason in arctic populations is groundless and unwarranted.

Last but not least, before I come to my own conclusion it is necessary to point out other flaws that undermine this argument. On one hand, the arguer fails to provide any information about the arctic deer live on islands in Russia and other places, therefore, it is dubious to get the result of the decline of global populations of the arctic deer. On another hand, population, which is a highly focused problem of the world and may cause such results as well, is also ignored by the arguer. Before the countless possibilities ruled out carefully, any conclusion is hasty and worthless.

All in all, although the argument seems to be plausible, it is neither sound nor persuasive. The conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in this argument did not lend strong support to the author's claim. To make it more logically acceptable, the arguer should have to provide more specific evidence concerning to the factors above.