Argument147 graduate06--Hamming组 自己的第1篇冲刺argument作业

graduate06UID: 2223299

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 401          TIME: 上午 30:00          DATE: 2007-1-22

outline:
1 survey
2 因果关系错 广告==\=> increase sales

The conclusion of the argument that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months seems an apparent conclusion at first glance. Yet, careful scrutiny of the evidence and the line of the reasoning reveal that the author provides no firm support to the conclusion of the argument. First, the credibility of the survey is open to question. The author also assumes the video games will sell well in the future. I will discuss each of the facets in turn.

The first problem of the argument is whether or not the survey is reliable. The argument has not provided the information of how many the people involved in the survey and how did the survey conduct. Without such evidence, it is entirely possible that there are only hundreds people who participated in the survey, in this case, the survey is unreliable as it stands. Even if the number is large enough, perhaps, the survey was conducted in some universities or blocks, it means that the people cannot represent all the players in the country. If so, any reasoning on the basis of the survey is untenable.

Even if the survey is credible, the argument commits a fallacy of cause-and-effect. The author fails to consider the other possible reasons that might affect the sales of Whirlwind video games. For example, the author fails to take the players' types of computer into consideration. How many people have the up-to-date computers? Common sense informs me that few people have them. If so, few people will buy the new video games. Besides, the author has not provided the information of the market. Perhaps, several companies have provided the same kind of video games to the consumers, or perhaps their products are much better and cheaper than our games. Without examining and ruling out such cases, the author cannot convince me the conclusion is persuasive.

In sum, the argument, which seems perfect at first, has several flaws discussed as above. To strengthen it the author must provide more details about the survey such as the number of people involved the survey and in field of the survey. To better evaluate it we also need to know the condition of the general players' computer. We also need to know the information of the market such as the competitor's products and so forth.

用AWP issue和argument连打的，之前没有写提纲，模拟实战，时间紧些，只攻了两点。


[ 本帖最后由 graduate06 于 2007-1-23 02:30 编辑 ]

sisong2003UID: 2154005

The conclusion of the argument that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months seems an apparent conclusion at first glance. Yet, careful scrutiny of the evidence and the line of the reasoning reveal that the author provides no firm support to the conclusion of the argument. First, the credibility of the survey is open to question. The author also assumes the video games will sell well in the future. I will discuss each of the facets in turn. 开头不错，值得学习
:)

The first problem of the argument is whether or not the survey is reliable. The argument has not provided the information of how many the people involved in the survey and how did the survey conduct. Without such evidence, it is entirely possible that there are only hundreds people who participated in the survey, in this case, the survey is unreliable as it stands. Even if the number is large enough, perhaps, the survey was conducted in some universities or blocks, it means that the people cannot represent all the players in the country. If so, any reasoning on the basis of the survey is untenable.

:)

Even if the survey is credible, the argument commits a fallacy of cause-and-effect. The author fails to consider the other possible reasons that might affect the sales of Whirlwind video games. For example, the author fails to take the players' types of computer into consideration. How many people have the up-to-date computers? Common sense informs me that few people have them.太绝对了 If so, few people will buy the new video games. Besides, the author has not provided the information of the market. Perhaps, several companies have provided the same kind of video games to the consumers, or perhaps their products are much better and cheaper than our games. Without examining and ruling out such cases, the author cannot convince me the conclusion is persuasive.

:)
In sum, the argument, which seems perfect at first, has several flaws discussed as above. To strengthen it the author must provide more details about the survey such as the number of people involved the survey and in field of the survey. To better evaluate it we also need to know the condition of the general players' computer. We also need to know the information of the market such as the competitor's products and so forth.

:)

总的来说非常不错，虽然只攻击两点，开头结尾都很好