argument147 认真作文互改小组第7次作业 taro

taroUID: 2286098

ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."




The conclusion that Whirlwind (W) video games would enjoy a hot sale in the coming few months is not adequately convincing in terms of the evidence given. Considering this prediction is based on a unreliable survey whose samples are not possibly consisted with the target population the advertising campaign directs at, one may doubt that the author is over-optimistic towards the market prospect.

To begin with, the survey cited in the editorial refers no information about the sample. No statistics are given indicating that enough video games players are involved in the survey, nor is there any evidence demonstrating they are people 10 to 25 years old, the key age-group W video games focus on.  If the survey was limited to a few middle-aged video game players, or to certain professional players, then the results might merely be attributed to those particular individuals. It is highly likely that the players W video games mainly intend to serve would prefer some other distinctive features such as intriguing plots, charming roles, or the extent of participation to lifelike graphics.Lacking evidence of a sufficiently representative sample, the author cannot justifiably draw any firm conclusion based on the survey whatsoever.

Even if we concede that the survey truly reflects the preference of major video game players, it does not necessarily follow that W is capable of taking advantage of it. It is mentioned in the editorial that the sales of W video games have declined over the past two years, thus there probably exist some problems related to the company itself. Maybe the products have some fatal bugs that are unacceptable to players. Or perhaps W runs a poor management by applying imprudent pricing or unwise distribution strategies. What is worse, maybe W’s after-sell service is far from satisfactory that it leaves customers a bad image. Any of these scenarios, if true, guarantees little chance for a favorable turn in the future sale of W’s products.

Again, it is equally possible that the decline of W video game sales in the last two years has nothing to do with the company itself but due to other potential factors, i.e. the ever-changing market needs, which may greatly affect the sale. Thus, before introducing such games through extensive advertisement, which may cost a considerable amount of money,  W should evaluate the conceivable risks of such an investing. It is likely that the market for this sort of video games is saturate, however extensive the advertising campaign may be, few players would buy the games. Or perhaps a multitude of players become interested in these games, yet are either unwilling or cannot afford to buy an expensive up-to-date computer for playing the video game. Furthermore, there might be several video game companies competing for the market, which means besides advertisement, W games also have to maintain a better quality or a lower price in order to attract the customers. Yet whether these elements are considered by W company? We just do not know.

In brief, this editorial has poor reasoning and evidence. To corroborate it the author has to provide accurate survey of video-game players, and so do the market-analysis and the advertising plan.                                                                       

[ 本帖最后由 taro 于 2007-1-26 23:28 编辑 ]

wang984UID: 2284383

para2 标准的对survey发难
para3 对W之前的业绩分析进而引申到对未来业绩的质疑，合理有效

很好，非常具体而不空泛

加油！