[a习作temp] argument147 【076G－背水一战小组】第一篇阿狗～ [复制链接]

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电梯直达

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发表于 2007-1-31 00:20:35 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

147 The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

——————提纲——————
1.most important不代表就一定最attractive. 价格情节等也都会影响。
2。谁说10－25是游戏主力群？另外，most up-to-date电脑会相对贵。如果消费群如文中所说是10～25 购买力就比较弱前面的SURVEY对象不明，说喜欢lifelike的不一定是10-25这群人占多数
3。做了广泛广告就一定会有人买？消费者对广告的反应如何？广告只是一部分如果游戏自身设计不好还是不会好销量。没道理说销量会几个月内猛增。
结论:要进一步做市场调查做好消费群定位分析2年来销量下降的原因再对自身的生产管理做进一步改善提高销量。

——————正文——————
In this argument, the arguer claims that the sales of Whirlwind video games will probably boost in the next few months, as he or she analyzes the video games' market and in accordance with a survey. Although the argument is seemed to be sound at first glance, it contains several facets which undermine the validity of the conclusion.

First of all, the survey which the arguer cites in the argument fails to provide sufficient evidence to conclude that those Whirlwind video games providing lifelike graphics will be popular. Although players consider that the most important part of a video game is with lifelike graphics, it is likely that such a provision is not the only determinant of the success of a video game. Even if offering lifelike graphics is the most important part, perhaps it is not the most attractive part. Players may also count video games' prices, contents, skill-requirement and so forth as factors for their final decision. For example, if those Whirlwind's new video games are only offering the lifelike graphics, but fail to arrange an exciting plot, fantastic imagination, and well-designed procedures, how could players rush to buy those games and crazy about them? On the other hand, the arguer doesn't mention reasons of why the sales of Whirlwind video games have decreased over the past two years, and it might be those possibilities which discussed above. If Whirlwind has not realized its drawbacks and rectified them, although several new games are introduced, it may also fall to failure again.

Another major flaw in the argument is that how can the arguer announce that the age-group ranging from 10 to 25 takes the majority part of video games playing? As the sample of the survey is not presented, it seems that players who prefer games providing lifelike graphics may beyond the age-group of 10-25. This ambiguity may lead Whirlwind incorrectly judge the potential consumer-group, hence cripples the influence of its extensive advertising campaign. Even though it happens to meet the reality, can this age-group be the most vital part of potential consumers? Clearly, there are lots of teenagers in this group who are likely have no stable or just poor incomes, but the Whirlwind video games require the most up-to-date computers, which are probably expensive, so how do these young video games' fans afford to buy the device required by those Whirlwind video game? As Whirlwind neglects these alternatives, its dream of sales-resurging would not realize in following months.

Last but not least, the arguer over-expects the effect of the advertising campaign. The arguer falsely assumes that there is a causal relation between the widespreading advertisements and popularity of the products, while they are only correlated. Albeit it is necessary to recommend its own products to consumers as such activity can increase the celebrity rating, the quality of products themselves is the most primary part of determining whether the sales will be good or not. If Whirlwind video games are not well-designed, the sales would still remain disappointed. In addition, there is also no evidence showing that how is the respondence of those people 10 to 25 years old to the extensive advertising movement, if consumers' attitude is indifferent, Whirlwind should immediately change its strategy of advertising for finally achieving the goal.

To sum up, Whirlwind needs to do a further investigation of video games market, and make clear its potential consumer's various aspects, such as their preference, age-range and purchasing ability. Meanwhile, it also should carefully analyze causes of the declination of sales over the past two years and advance its production and management in order to make sure that sales will tremendously rise.