Argument71 【天下无G askme习作】第6次作业

askmeUID: 2264776

TOPIC: ARGUMENT71 - Copper occurs in nature mixed with other minerals and valuable metals in ore, and the proportion of copper in the ore can vary considerably. Until fairly recently, the only way to extract pure copper from ore was by using a process that requires large amounts of electric energy, especially if the proportion of copper in the ore is low. New copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity than the older method to process the same amount of raw ore, especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Therefore, we can expect the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly.
WORDS: 463          TIME: 0:28:28          DATE: 2007-2-5

Giving some facts and analysis, the arguer's assertion that the amount of electricity used in copper-extraction would decline seems logical. However, a careful examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the assertion is.

First of all, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Even if the new copper-extracting technologies can use less electricity to produce the given amount of copper, it does not follow that local factories would import new equipments recently and thus the amount of electricity would remain almost unchanged. It is possible that the equipments are still in experiment and thus are precarious. To avoid hazard, local factories might consider such factor before importing new equipments. Even if the equipments are safe enough, it is equally likely that they are very expensive for the sake of monopoly. This possibility could also prevent local factories from importing new equipments. In short, without ruling out these and other possible factors, the conclusion is unconvincing.

Moreover, granted that local factories are eager to import new equipments, the arguer fails to consider other factors that might exert influence on the amount of electricity. As the arguer points out, new copper-extracting technologies can obviously reduce the amount of electricity when the proportion of copper is high. However, the arguer provides no information regarding the proportion. It is highly likely that the proportion of copper there is extremely low and thus it cannot give full play to the new technologies; as a result, the amount of electricity would not slump conspicuously. At the even worse, the local ore might be unfit for new equipments to extract and thus new equipments would do nothing with electricity. Accordingly, any of these scenarios, if true, would serve to undermine the conclusion.

Finally, even assuming that new technologies indeed reduce electricity used in producing a given amount of copper, the overall electricity would not necessarily decrease. Perhaps, thanks to the new technologies, the cost to produce a given amount of copper slumps and thus the profit from copper increases considerably. If so, then more factories would set up and import such new equipments or that existing factories would prefer to produce more copper in order to pursue such high profit. As common sense and experience tells us that the amount of electricity is generally in proportion to the amount of copper. As a result of more copper to be produced, the electricity would increase rather than decrease significantly. In short, the arguer cannot confidently draw any firm conclusion.

To sum up, the argument lacks credibility because the evidence cited here lends no strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen this argument, the arguer should provide more evidence that local factories would import new equipments. To better evaluate this argument, we need more information concerning such new technologies.