Argument5 急切求拍！

keyyhemaUID: 2297024

argu 已经写了好几篇，但是好想还是没有形成一套自己的模式，希望有经验的gters能帮帮忙出出主意：
1、怎么才能提高写作的速度？
2、怎么摆脱字斟句酌的习惯？
TOPIC: ARGUMENT5 - The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.

"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."
WORDS: 511          TIME: 1:00:00          DATE: 2007-2-15

1、关节炎病人数量上升的真实性待定
2、即使治疗关节炎的药品需求增加，也不能说明Perkins would be the most profitable.(分三点说明这个问题)

In this argument, the author make a prediction that Perkins Pharmaceuticals is more likely to be the most profitable pharmaceutical company in ten years. To support this prediction, the author cites an expected trend that there would be a substantial increase in the number of people in their country with some form of arthritis. Besides, the author also provides some analysis, which would be ridiculous to some extent. Close scrutiny reveals unsounded flaws which undermine the validity.

Before we doubt on the terminal prediction the author access to, I would ask some questions about the author's opinion that there will be a highly need for drugs for the treatment of arthritis in the next ten to twenty years. Though the author may be confident in his foundational evidence that the number of people with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, I need to know that where does this evidence come from. If this is only a canard and no one can prove this trend with some exact data and more details, the authenticity of this "expected" trend should be doubted.

However, even the author can prove the authenticity of the trends talked above and there is indeed an rising need for drugs for the treatment of arthritis, no evidence can make it clear that the final victor who take those profits would be Perkins Pharmaceutical. First of all, the author unfairly equates the expiring of the predominant drugs for curing arthritis-Xenon to the end of the Becton Pharmaceutical making profit. The author ignores the probability that Becton would continue their contract to resume sales of Xenon. Secondly, as the author says, when the patent on Xenin expires, other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. In consideration of this, how do we know that it is Xylan, not other drugs produced by other company, take Xenon's seat in curing arthritis? After all, the author has not rule out all the possible competitors against the two company mentioned in the argument. Thirdly, when it comes to the clinical studies in the new drug called Xylan, I am afraid that I cannot accept the credibility of the result without more illustration on it. The studies only show that Xylan of preferred over Xenon by seven out of then patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis, while not mention a word about the total number of the patients who were studied. Perhaps the sample could not be representative enough for making an conclusion that Xylan is better than Xenon. Moreover, there is a possibility that Xylan is simply good at the most extreme cases of arthritis and those kind of arthritis patient only take a small proportion in all.

To sum up, the author’ analysis is replete with logical flaws and problems caused by arbitrary conclusions. To mend it, the author has to provide more information to demonstrate the credibility of the expected increasing arthritic patients and more evidence to prove Xylan would render Perkins Pharmaceuticals to be the most profitable company of all.