Argument45 【flying小组】第四次作业

千年子猫UID: 2237656

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 373         TIME：限时失败          DATE: 2007-2-21
提纲：
1论断前提不对，作者的前提是当地的气温的确上升了，但是文中却没有任何的数据表明这一点。
2即使当地的气温上升了，鹿的数量与温度高低之间的直接关系也值得怀疑。即使会对鹿的生命产生威胁，人类也可以用其他的方法来进行保护。
3究竟是什么原因使得鹿的数量减少是值得商榷的，也许是食物短缺，也许是滥杀，但是作者都没有考虑。

The author makes a result that rising temperature has a negative effect on the number of deer. He points out the habit of the deer and the weather are in opposite situation and the hunters' report also showed this problem as the temperature in the world is higher and higher. At the first glance, the arguer’s reasoning seems to be quite sound, but if we make a careful consideration about his evidence, doubtful point will appear.

First of all, the conclusion bases on the temperature at the local area should be hot weather while there is not any evidence or data shows the abnormal temperature there. Although the average temperature all over the world is higher than before, there is not any evidence could relate that to the local temper. Maybe the island has a temperate weather which does not be affected much by the global warming.

Secondly, even though the weather changed a little, the author still need more evidence to proof the direct relationship between the rising temperature and the decreasing number of deer. No one could deny the representation about the decreasing number and the increasing degree is stitch to each other, but the cause-effect relationship is not clear. In fact, the author only tells readers that the changing weather could affect the daily lives of deer, but he does not show any data which could proof the change of daily life is fatal. Even if the changing is unacceptable by deer, human beings will have other methods to protect them, for example, to build green house for them or something.

What is more, the author is failing to consider other possible situation which could also reduce the number of deer. Maybe the reason is shortage of food, for many kinds of plants face up to extinction. Maybe the reason is unnecessary killing, for many kinds of animals almost extinct only because of killing. The conclusion made by the author is dogmatical and thoughtless.

In sum, the author’s conclusion needs more evidence and should be perfect in every angle. He needs to approve the relationship between the number of deer and the temperature, and he needs more data about the local temperature. Anyway, a result like this is not believable.

[ 本帖最后由 千年子猫 于 2007-2-22 18:51 编辑 ]