arguement147 [076G飞跃小组]woodenrice第一次作业

woodenriceUID: 2302372

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."


     The author contends that the two-year decline in sales of Whirlwind's video games would reverse in the next few months and go on to dramatically increasing. In order to prove this view, the author quoted some data of a recent survey, according to which video-game players might choose games with lifelike graphics in. And Whirlwind is now introducing such type of games. But this reasoning is not convincing enough for me to be confident about Whirlwind's sale reversing.
   
     First, the survey might be reliable enough. The author failed to make sure that the survey was taken in a group that can represent the whole group of video-players, or at least can represent 10 to 25 years, which are expected to be Whirlwind's customers. Thus all conclusion rely one this survey might be unreliable. Perhaps 10 to 25 years only take a little percentage in the respondents, for that matter conclusion about them based on this survey might be unreliable.
  
     Second, the author assumed that Whirlwind's extensive advertising campaign would attract a lot of 10 to 25 years and then they would buy games introduced by ads. However, there is no evidence to show that these ads would be attractive for 10 to 25 years. Even if players of this age were attracted by these ads, there is no evidence to make sure that they buy these games. It is possible that players 10 to 25 want Whirlwind's new games with lifelike graphics but they don't have a up-to-date computer to play them. Or that these games are too expensive for them to own.

     Third, even though Whirlwinds new introduced game sell well, it is not sure about the sales of Whirlwinds. The author didn't tell besides the new introduced, lifelike graphics including games whether Whirlwind sell other types of games or not. And it is definitely possible that Whirlwind also sell games of other types. For that matter, without any information about sales of other games, it would be very difficult to infer the whole sales of Whirlwind.

     In sum, to make his conclusion  that Whirlwind's game sales would reverse and increase in the next few months more convincing, the author should make sure that survey data quoted in the editorial representative, ads attractive, new games well sale, and whirlwind's other business developing well.

中文提纲：
1、作者认为W公司游戏销售量两年来的下降将得到逆转，并且在几个月内上升，理由来自一个调查数据。但这些推论不够说服力。

2、首先不能肯定调查是不是具有代表性，即调查可能不能用来做关于w公司销售量推断的依据。
3、即使调查有代表性，也不能肯定广告是否有效；即使广告有效，也不一定游戏就能大卖。
4、即使图像游戏得到大卖，在不知道其他业务成绩的情况下也不能断言w公司销售量会上升

5、总结，作者想要使结论具有说服力，需要做什么什么什么

[ 本帖最后由 woodenrice 于 2007-2-24 23:48 编辑 ]

juneteaUID: 2294208

The author contends that the two-year decline in sales of Whirlwind's video games would reverse in the next few months and go on to dramatically increasing. In order to prove this view, the author quoted (全文时态应该统一,下面同样)some data of a recent survey, according to which video-game players might choose games with lifelike graphics in. And Whirlwind is now introducing such type of games. But this reasoning is not convincing enough for me to be confident about Whirlwind's sale reversing.
   
     First, the survey might be reliable enough. The author failed to make sure that the survey was taken in a group that can represent the whole group of video-players, or at least can represent 10 to 25 years, which are expected to be Whirlwind's customers. Thus all conclusion(s?) rely one (on)this survey might be unreliable. Perhaps 10 to 25 years only take a little percentage in the respondents, for that matter conclusion about them based on this survey might be unreliable.
  
     Second, the author assumed that Whirlwind's extensive advertising campaign would attract a lot of 10 to 25 years and then they would buy games introduced by ads. However, there is no evidence to show that these ads would be attractive for 10 to 25 years. Even if players of this age were attracted by these ads, there is no evidence to make sure that they buy these games. It is possible that players 10 to 25 want Whirlwind's new games with lifelike graphics but they don't have a up-to-date computer to play them. Or that these games are too expensive for them to own.

     Third, even though Whirlwinds new introduced game(s) sell well, it is not sure about the sales of Whirlwinds. The author didn't tell besides the new introduced, lifelike graphics including games whether Whirlwind sell(s) other types of games(game) or not. And it is definitely possible that Whirlwind (may)also sell games of other types. For that matter, without any information about sales of other games, it would be very difficult to infer the whole sales of Whirlwind.

     In sum, to make his conclusion  that Whirlwind's game sales would reverse and increase in the next few months more convincing, the author should make sure that survey data quoted in the editorial (is)representative, ads attractive, new games well sale(sell well), and whirlwind's other business developing(developes) well.

这篇写的不是很好，问题找的不是很准，建议看看别人的习作．