ARGUMENT45 飞跃小组disyoo第二天的额外作业 有拍必回 谢谢砖头

disyooUID: 2223964

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 428          TIME: 上午  00:29:39          DATE: 2007-2-25

In this memo, the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support the conclusion, the author points out that the habitat of the deer is limiter to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, the deer will travel over it to feed themselves. The author also cites some reports from local hunters that the deer populations are declining since the recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt. However, the argument relies on series of unsubstantiated assumptions.

First, the sea ice to melt do little indicate that the deer are unable to follow their age-old migration patterns. First, the author does not mention both the time of sea ice melting and the time of the migration, perhaps the deer have already finished the migration when the sea ice is changing into water. Further more, Even if the deer are unable to migration to the other lands, maybe they will find another way to go across the sea between islands. So it is doubtful to say that the melt of ice lead to the stop of the migration.

Second, the reports from local hunters are open to doubt. Are the populations really declining? Perhaps the information that hunters collected is not the whole size of the population of the deer, they are not expert to do research on animal. Or perhaps, the number of deer's populations will decline by nature in winter, and the information that the hunters collected is just at this time. So I will not believe in the reports from hunters.

Third, the author misses some other possible reasons that will lead to the decline of the populations of the deer. Perhaps, the deer find a place where they will feed themselves without migration and settle down. Or perhaps, the declining of populations of deer is reasoned by hunting season, and they will increase again in the fallow years. So the melt of the sea may be not the mainly reason course the number of deer decline.

In sum, the conclusion is based on some unbelievable assumptions and increditable stands in this argument, to strengthen it the author should cite more evidence to show that the deer are unable to follow their age-old migration patterns because of the melt of the sea. The author should also present more information to proof that the reports are creditable.