Argument 137 [076G飞跃小组] coraone 第五次作业

coraoneUID: 2233021

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS:553          TIME: 上午 01:00:00          DATE: 2007-2-24

In this argument, the author uses the consequence of a recent survey as a fundament to deduct the conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind video games would soar in the next few months. All these seem sound and strong in the first glance, however, his progress of identification suffers several underlying logical flaws.

As a threshold matter, the author do not use an comprehensive analysis of the reason which lead to the decline of the sales of Whirlwind video games in the past two years as foundation to deduction, but base on a result of recent survey should be reconsidered. How, exactly, do the Whirlwind video games increase its sales? Where does the problem, which lead to the two-year decline of the sales, reside----in the design of game content, price, promotional strategy, or the competition from the rival? Is the answer to do more extensive advertising campaign, or just add in more innovative design? The author should concentrate his attention upon the existing problem, and give much thought to the difficulty what he is confronted with that is go a long way towards boosting the sales of Whirlwind video games.

In the next step of my analysis, even through the author has considered the reason of the sales decline, the survey offered by the author cannot be as steadfast as it can act as a fundament to up hold the idea that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase. First, as we know, to be a well-established survey, it should include more detailed information than the author mentioned, such as the informants’ age-group, interest, professional, income, and so forth. If one ignored all this important elements that would like to affect the consequence of the survey, the degree credit will of this survey will be undermined. Second, even through the survey is quite reliable, we still not be informed whether this survey is an nation-wide survey or not. This point is also important because the nation-wide survey can reflect an general view toward the game, but a regional survey has no sense. Therefore, with this two points failed to clean up, the degree of the credit in this survey will be undermined, so will the assertion.


In my final analyzing, the causality between the increase of further sales and the extensive advertising campaign is not as strong as it can be worth of trust. On one hand, without any evidence that can testify the 10 to 25 years old people is just the video-game players who prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. On the other hand, the game required the most up-to-date computer also can be a double-edged sword----at the same time when the video-game’s quality is enhanced, the lower people can afford to buy such an expensive computer.

In a nut shell, with a vague consideration, based on the unwarranted evidence, the author gives his further conclusion. This argument is certainly worth of reconsideration. To better strengthen and fortify the argument, the author need to solve all these logical imperfections mentioned above; then look for a more persuasive reasoning line to present the certification of whether the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to soar in the next few months; at least; lay more efficient and effective evidence to up hold his deduction.

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