Argument47 Victors 第5次作业

菲子UID: 2311527

TOPIC: ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.


1.       没有小行星的记录不能说明确实没有小行星
2.       隆隆声不一定是火山爆发引起的
3.       火山爆发不一定能引起气候变冷。


In this argument, the arguer claims that a volcanic eruption caused the extremely cold weather in the mid-sixth century. To support his conclusion, he rules out the possibility of a large meteorite collision and mentions historical records of a loud boom which would be consistent with a volcanic eruption during that time. However, the arguer's conclusion is fraught with simplified and unwarranted assumptions.

The first flaw is that the arguer treats a lack of extant historical records of a sudden bright flash of light as constituting sufficient proof that there was no large meteorite collision.  Although there is no record of a meteorite collision, it is possible that the collision took place in the America Continent and no one in Asia or Europe saw the flash of light, and it is equally possible that people are too scared to record this kind of phenomenon. Therefore, no sufficient evidence support the conclusion that the meteorite collision did not exist.

Another flaw of this argument is that the arguer fails to show that the loud boom is caused by a volcanic eruption. It is true that a volcanic eruption can bring about a loud boom, but there are other phenomena that can cause loud boom as well, such as the mountain flood and landslide.  Without enough evidence, whether there was a volcanic eruption is not sure.  Unless the arguer provide enough information, the conclusion that there is a large volcanic eruption during the mid-six century cannot be accepted.

Even it is true that there is a volcanic eruption, but it is also possible that the eruption did not cause the cooling. Some enormous volcanic eruption might cause the extremely cold weather in Earth, but the arguer fails to show that the might-be volcanic eruption is large enough to lead to such a cooling of Earth. We all know that there are several volcanic eruptions taking place in the world every year, but those eruptions do not cause the cooling of Earth. Therefore, the volcanic eruption might not result in the cooling of Earth.

To sum up, the argument is unwarranted without enough information of the volcanic eruption and the meteorite collision.

ghost33UID: 2267869

TOPIC: ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.


1.       没有小行星的记录不能说明确实没有小行星
2.       隆隆声不一定是火山爆发引起的
3.       火山爆发不一定能引起气候变冷。


In this argument, the arguer claims that a volcanic eruption caused the extremely cold weather in the mid-sixth century. To support his conclusion, he rules out the possibility of a large meteorite collision and mentions historical records of a loud boom which would be consistent with a volcanic eruption during that time. However, the arguer's conclusion is fraught with simplified and unwarranted assumptions.

The first flaw is that the arguer treats a lack of extant historical records of a sudden bright flash of light as constituting sufficient proof that there was no large meteorite collision.  Although there is no record of a meteorite collision, it is possible that the collision took place in the America Continent and no one in Asia or Europe saw the flash of light, and it is equally possible that people are too scared to record this kind of phenomenon. Therefore, no sufficient evidence support the conclusion that the meteorite collision did not exist.

Another flaw of this argument is that the arguer fails to show that the loud boom is caused by a volcanic eruption. It is true that a volcanic eruption can bring about a loud boom, but there are other phenomena that can cause loud boom as well, such as the mountain flood and landslide.  Without enough evidence, whether there was a volcanic eruption is not sure.  Unless the arguer provide enough information, the conclusion that there is a large volcanic eruption during the mid-six century cannot be accepted.

Even it is true that there is a volcanic eruption, but it is also possible that the eruption did not cause the cooling. Some enormous volcanic eruption might cause the extremely cold weather in Earth, but the arguer fails to show that the might-be volcanic eruption is large enough to lead to such a cooling of Earth. We all know that there are several volcanic eruptions taking place in the world every year, but those eruptions do not cause the cooling of Earth. Therefore, the volcanic eruption might not result in the cooling of Earth.

To sum up, the argument is unwarranted without enough information of the volcanic eruption and the meteorite collision.

在你找到的地方都说得很好的,可以提的意见是,没有找完所有的??