中国真的需要这些多医生吗？？

ChinatevaUID: 2231377

It is the first paragraph, I can not access the fulltext now.
http://www.asiabiotech.com/readmore/vol10/1015/china.html

Currently, there are about 180 medical schools in China. All of these medical schools have been established and maintained by the government. Among them, 77 are free-standing medical colleges, 64 are withincomprehensive universities, and 39 are secondary medical schools.Generally, the medical education system in China consists of two levels: the high-school level of vocational training (3-year programs) and the university level of medical education (5, 7, or 8-yearprograms). The number of students enrolled annually is dramatically increasing: it was estimated that more than 60 000 high school graduates were admitted in 1997, 140 000 in 2000, and 280 000 in 2004.Such an over enrolment results in insufficient educational resources andnationwide concern about the quality of education.

中国医学院2004招生规模达28万，有效需求应该在4-6万！我是这样推算的。美国每年获得行医执照的人员大约2万，美国人口3亿，总的医生80多万，中国医生群体恢复高考后三十年人员更替，现在的医生群体相对年轻，需要退休的人相对少，中国有效消费人群6-9亿，4-6万可能还高估了，大家看看推断有什么漏洞，谢谢！

我这里还有一个数据和大家分享一下
一个来自Frost & Sullivan，中国目前每年招收的生物专业的研究生（博士和硕士） 是3万，美国是1.4万
全球与生物技术相关的工作（指公司）是19万，其中13万个岗位在美国！（来自安永的2007 biotech report的数据）

不做评论



[ 本帖最后由 Chinateva 于 2007-5-23 00:55 编辑 ]

ChinatevaUID: 2231377

http://news.xinhuanet.com/school/2007-05/30/content_6171532.htm
法学、医学这些过去公认的传统热门也排在后面，就业率分别只有37.85%和 31.01% Wow!!

ChinatevaUID: 2231377

Most graduates in 2006 should be admitted in 2001 and the number is about 160,000, since the compound annual growth rate of admission between 2000-2004 is 15%. The employment rate will decline dramatically in the coming years.

bioalwayshuoUID: 159583

That is a good point. I have the same argument.
I was wondering what Chinateva's major is. But, it seems we are concerning same interests. Hope to talk to you more.

zehuaUID: 199246

30万毕业生听起来很多，但是真正合格做医生的能有多少？也就顶多2万吧。现在扩招以后教学质量是什么样子大家都清楚，就是2个字－垃圾。重点大学都有很多人整天打游戏，那些烂校的学生简直没几个学了点东西的。
所以说现在中国大学的问题就是2个字－烂，滥。:vomit:

bioalwayshuoUID: 159583

That depends. It is really up to yourself.