Argument65【07-10G Superstar大帖】第四次作业by 学野

学野UID: 2155973

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 441          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-5-27 11:31:18

Before make hasty decision that discontinuing stocking many of our varieties of imported cheeses and concentrate primarily on domestic cheese, the evidence showed in the argument should be examined carefully in several aspects. After the close scrutiny, the seemingly plausible argument in fact has several fallacies.

First, the author's evidence that the five best-selling cheeses at newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin last year can not  substantiate validly the conclusion. Maybe the best selling cheeses from Wisconsin is merely based on the low price of the cheeses but not the delicious taste which contributes to a large sale of Wisconsin cheddar cheeses. It 's possible that in future the Wisconsin cheeses increase the price so that the best-selling nature may disappear. Even if the cheeses from W are delicious to appeal the customers, it is just only one of the domestic cheeses and unable to representative of all the domestic brands. It is possible that people all like the taste of Wisconsin cheeses but do not in favor of other domestic cheeses. In this sense, the author 's conclusion is unwarranted based on the unsubstantial evidences.

Second, as for the survey in the argument, one must consider the process of conducting survey. If the survey questions are leading or just have more to do with the self support, the result of the survey might be unreliable--people may just respond to the expected answers. In addition, we must take account of how broad the survey is, Is the survey only limited to those who are in favor of the domestic cheeses? If so ,the results may be attributable to particular individuals, therefore, the generalization of the survey cannot apply to all the people. Even if the survey was broader, one must consider whether it is limited in certain other ways. For instance, is the survey limited to certain regions? Do all the subscribers respond to the survey, no matter which kind of cheeses they prefer? Are those respondents honest ,forthright and in earnest about their results? Factors such as these which are not provided in the argument will undermine the generalization and reliability of the survey results.

Finally, the author also rules out other alternatives and fails to examine alternative explanations. The advantage of limiting inventory may reduce expenses thus bring about the high profits, however the author fails to consider other methods which can contribute to high profit. There are  also possibilities that the low price and attractive selling forms and also the good services, can give rise to high profit. What's more, there is no statistics and evidences that the discontinuing stocking the imported cheese and concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses can improve the profit.

第一次限时，结尾没来得及写:funk: 放在word里把一堆拼写错误改了，大家狠狠拍啊~:D :D

huaxinluoboUID: 2326780

Before make hasty decision that discontinuing stocking many of our varieties of imported cheeses and concentrating primarily on domestic cheese, the evidence showed in the argument should be examined carefully in several aspects. After the close scrutiny, the seemingly plausible argument in fact has several fallacies.
First, the author's evidence that the five best-selling cheeses at newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin last year can not  substantiate validly the conclusion. Maybe the best selling cheeses from Wisconsin is merely based on the low price of the cheeses but not the delicious taste which contributes to a large sale of Wisconsin cheddar cheeses. It 's possible that in future the Wisconsin cheeses increase the price so that the best-selling nature may disappear. Even if the cheeses from W are delicious to appeal the customers, it is just only one of the domestic cheeses and unable to representative of all the domestic brands. It is possible that people all like the taste of Wisconsin cheeses but do not in favor of other domestic cheeses. In this sense, the author 's conclusion is unwarranted based on the unsubstantial evidences. 我觉得重点应该放在后半部分，要攻击作者的假设：国产的卖的比进口的好。有两个明显的地方，best-seller and new stores
Second, as for the survey in the argument, one must consider the process of conducting survey. If the survey questions are leading or just have more to do with the self support, the result of the survey might be unreliable--people may just respond to the expected answers. In addition, we must take account of how broad the survey is, Is the survey only limited to those who are in favor of the domestic cheeses? If so ,the results may be attributable to particular individuals, therefore, the generalization of the survey cannot apply to all the people. Even if the survey was broader, one must consider whether it is limited in certain other ways. For instance, is the survey limited to certain regions? Do all the subscribers respond to the survey, no matter which kind of cheeses they prefer? Are those respondents honest ,forthright and in earnest about their results? Factors such as these which are not provided in the argument will undermine the generalization and reliability of the survey results. 问题找的很准确，不过好像写的不够简洁，否则就能写完了。现在有种意见就是ets 经常由于篇幅原因，对调查描述的很少，所以只要不是严重的错误就不要着重攻击。这篇题目里就可以先简单攻击下调查，然后让步攻击结论。对。。关注就一定会买？对进口。。不关注了？
Finally, the author also rules out好像就没有考虑，用ignore 呢？ other alternatives and fails to examine alternative explanations. The advantage of limiting inventory may reduce expenses thus bring about the high profits, however the author fails to consider other methods which can contribute to high profit. There are  also possibilities that the low price and attractive selling forms and also the good services, can give rise to high profit. What's more, there is no statistics and evidences that the discontinuing stocking the imported cheese and concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses can improve the profit.
:loveliness: 虽然在挑毛病，不过还是很佩服你的，限时情况下这样已经不容易，换了我就惨不忍睹了，加油。至于关于调查的意见，仅供参考，有机会再交流吧