Argument147 【METTLE小组】第2次作业 by zhanghaiyu

zhanghaiyuUID: 2283790

In this argument, the arguer recommends that the decline in the sales of Whirlwind video games over the past two years is about to be reversed, and the sales are likely to increase dramatically in the coming few months. The conclusion is based on a recent survey in which video-game players prefer games with realistic graphics, thus require the most advanced computer. Then the arguer points out that Whirlwind has introduced several such games together with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at people 10 to 25 yeas old-the demographic group who are most likely to play video-games. This argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

First, the arguer fails to analyze the reasons why the sales of Whirlwind video games declined over the past two years. Is it because the price of Whirlwind's games was too high or because Whirlwind's games were out of fashion and thus could not meet the needs of game players that the sales decreased in the past? Without the reasons, the arguer cannot convince me that the measures Whirlwind takes could definitely solve the problem and lead to the increase.

Second, the advertising campaign aimed at people 10 to 25 years old may turn out to be ineffective. The arguer fails to provide a reliable statistic to prove that people 10 to 25 years old are really the most likely game enthusiasts. Even so, these people may not be the main consumers of video-games, as a result of which, even if they were attracted by the advertisements, it is still possible that they will not spend money on these new games. As the arguer does not prove the validity of the survey, we could not exclude the possibility that they would even not be attracted at all. Without convincing investigation, I cannot accept the arguer's conclusion that the advertising campaign will be effective in increasing the game sales.

Finally, the arguer fails to take into account other factors that might affect the sales of the newly introduced life-like video games, such as price, channel of distribution, and competition of other companies. Perhaps Whirlwind's newly introduced games are beyond the buying capacity of the main demographic group. Or perhaps Whirlwind's distribution channel is poor so that it cannot provide enough copy for consumers. Or maybe Whirlwind's competitor introduced similar games at a lower price with a better distribution channel than Whirlwind's at the same time. Unless the arguer could rule out these possibilities, I would not be persuaded into accept the conclusion that Whirlwind is about to experience a rapid increase in sales.

To sum up, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. Before I accept the conclusion, the arguer must present a thorough analysis to prove that the reason of the decline of sales lies in Whirlwind's failing to introduce fashionable games and its wrongly oriented advertising strategy. To solidify the argument, the arguer had better make survey on which demographic group plays the most significant role in the sales of video-games and make sure that the advertisements will necessarily attract them.

RayTongUID: 2325885

In this argument, the arguer recommends that the decline in the sales of Whirlwind video games over the past two years is about to be reversed, and the sales are likely to increase dramatically in the coming few months. The conclusion is based on a recent survey in which video-game players prefer games with realistic graphics, thus require the most advanced computer. Then the arguer points out that Whirlwind has introduced several such games together with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at people 10 to 25 yeas old-the demographic group who are most likely to play video-games. This argument suffers from several critical fallacies.(开头过长，对原题目的复述过于详细，比body的某些段落都长，不好，建议缩减)

First, the arguer fails to analyze the reasons why the sales of Whirlwind video games declined over the past two years（TS不错，简洁，有力）. Is it because the price of Whirlwind's games was too high or because Whirlwind's games were out of fashion and thus could not meet the needs of game players that the sales decreased in the past?（泪。。。一句话的论述，也太那什么了吧，如果觉得这个驳论点没有话可写，可以不写，或者放在最后稍稍提一下就可以了） Without the reasons, the arguer cannot convince me that the measures Whirlwind takes could definitely solve the problem and lead to the increase.

Second, the advertising campaign aimed at people 10 to 25 years old may turn out to be ineffective. The arguer fails to provide a reliable statistic to prove that people 10 to 25 years old are really the most likely game enthusiasts. Even so, these people may not be the main consumers of video-games, as a result of which（这里的which指代什么？）, even if they were attracted by the advertisements, it is still possible that they will not spend money on these new games（why？argument并不是鸡蛋里挑骨头，找出来的驳论点也是要有根据的，你这句写的太有些强词夺理的味道了）. As the arguer does not prove the validity of the survey, we could not exclude the possibility that they would even not be attracted at all. Without convincing investigation, I cannot accept the arguer's conclusion that the advertising campaign will be effective in increasing the game sales. （这段论述的相当混乱，好像结合了几个错误，一个是对它宣传的置疑，另一个是年龄问题，而且看你前面的论述给我一些刻意寻找每个实例之间逻辑关系的感觉，但是你论述的不够清楚）

Finally, the arguer fails to take into account other factors that might affect the sales of the newly introduced life-like video games, such as price, channel of distribution, and competition of other companies. Perhaps Whirlwind's newly introduced games are beyond the buying capacity of the main demographic group. Or perhaps Whirlwind's distribution channel is poor so that it cannot provide enough copy for consumers. Or maybe Whirlwind's competitor introduced similar games at a lower price with a better distribution channel than Whirlwind's at the same time. Unless the arguer could rule out these possibilities, I would not be persuaded into accept the conclusion that Whirlwind is about to experience a rapid increase in sales.

To sum up, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. Before I accept the conclusion, the arguer must present a thorough analysis to prove that the reason of the decline of sales lies in Whirlwind's failing to introduce fashionable games and its wrongly oriented advertising strategy. To solidify the argument, the arguer had better make survey on which demographic group plays the most significant role in the sales of video-games and make sure that the advertisements will necessarily attract them.（结尾也是太长了，除非你准备好了自己的模板，否则会很浪费时间，完全的重复了你body部分每段的结尾，没什么用）

建议把topic放在前面，免得某些孤魂野鬼过来改的时候还要去查题目
开头结尾太长就不再说了
虽然你字数比较多，但是你论述的不深，某些形式话的东西占了很大的篇幅，其实每段的最后一句对于你的对题目的反驳帮助并不是很大的，也是建议不要在这方面话太多时间

zhanghaiyuUID: 2283790

谢谢楼上的批改，我是第一次写argument，不知道如何下手，好多是按照模板啊，提纲什么写的，分析我想深入，只是不知道如何展开

AndierUID: 2302600

In this argument, the arguer recommends that the decline in the sales of Whirlwind video games over the past two years is about to be reversed, and the sales are likely to increase dramatically in the coming few months. The conclusion is based on a recent survey in which video-game players prefer games with realistic graphics, thus require the most advanced computer. Then the arguer points out that Whirlwind has introduced several such games together with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at people 10 to 25 yeas old-the demographic group who are most likely to play video-games. This argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

// 关于开头是否要把主要问题现陈列一下，我也说不好了。看过一些A的范文，开头结尾都是笼统一说~ 我也就照搬了……这个需要商榷


First, the arguer fails to analyze the reasons why the sales of Whirlwind video games declined over the past two years. Is it because the price of Whirlwind's games was too high or because Whirlwind's games were out of fashion and thus could not meet the needs of game players that the sales decreased in the past? Without the reasons, the arguer cannot convince me that the measures Whirlwind takes could definitely solve the problem and lead to the increase.

// 上面这段感觉上，其他因素分析了，但没有特别说明 为什么作者的提议会因为这些显得有问题。

Second, the advertising campaign aimed at people 10 to 25 years old may turn out to be ineffective. The arguer fails to provide a reliable statistic to prove that people 10 to 25 years old are really the most likely game enthusiasts(直接说采样不能说明问题好了，绕弯的话老外反应慢……). Even so, these people may not be the main consumers of video-games(nice point!!), as a result of which, even if they were attracted by the advertisements, it is still possible that they(they 是谁就很不一样了，不如直接说，销量不一定上升) will not spend money on these new games. As the arguer does not prove the validity of the survey, we could not exclude the possibility that they would even not be attracted at all. Without convincing investigation, I cannot accept the arguer's conclusion that the advertising campaign will be effective in increasing the game sales.


Finally, the arguer fails to take into account other factors that might affect the sales of the newly introduced life-like video games, such as price, channel of distribution, and competition of other companies.(这段感觉和第一段角度类似~..?) Perhaps Whirlwind's newly introduced games are beyond the buying capacity of the main demographic group. Or perhaps Whirlwind's distribution channel is poor so that it cannot provide enough copy for consumers. Or maybe Whirlwind's competitor introduced similar games at a lower price with a better distribution channel than Whirlwind's at the same time. Unless the arguer could rule out these possibilities, I would not be persuaded into accept the conclusion that Whirlwind is about to experience a rapid increase in sales.

To sum up, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. Before I accept the conclusion, the arguer must present a thorough analysis to prove that the reason of the decline of sales lies in Whirlwind's failing to introduce fashionable games and its wrongly oriented advertising strategy. To solidify the argument, the arguer had better make survey on which demographic group plays the most significant role in the sales of video-games and make sure that the advertisements will necessarily attract them.

总体感觉，发散思维很强，分析了很多可能是作者推论不成立的原因。但是对其推理本身逻辑的攻击是可以更多的~~~
一个段落顺着一个逻辑缺陷的线索走感觉比较好，有时候说开了之后就显得脉络不明显了~

关于 Argument 好多写法值得咱们总结` 一起加油吧！ ：）

imagic80UID: 2342633

In this argument, the arguer recommends that the decline in the sales of Whirlwind video games over the past two years is about to be reversed, and the sales are likely to increase dramatically in the coming few months. The conclusion is based on a recent survey in which video-game players prefer games with realistic graphics, thus require the most advanced computer. Then the arguer points out that Whirlwind has introduced several such games together with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at people 10 to 25 yeas old-the demographic group who are most likely to play video-games. This argument suffers from several critical fallacies.
【经典的三因素开头法，不过做了自己的改变。】
First, the arguer fails to analyze the reasons why the sales of Whirlwind video games declined over the past two years. Is it because the price of Whirlwind's games was too high or because Whirlwind's games were out of fashion and thus could not meet the needs of game players【是不是改加so？我不太确定。】 that the sales decreased in the past? Without the 【analysis of the】reasons, the arguer cannot convince me that the measures Whirlwind takes could definitely solve the problem and lead to the increase.

Second, the advertising campaign aimed at people 10 to 25 years old may turn out to be ineffective. The arguer fails to provide a reliable statistic to prove that people 10 to 25 years old are really the most likely game enthusiasts. Even so, these people may not be the main consumers of video-games, as a result of which, even if they were attracted by the advertisements, it is still possible that they will not spend money on these new games. As the arguer does not prove the validity of the survey, we could not exclude the possibility that they would even not be attracted at all.survey的有效性和广告的有效性之间没有什么联系吧？ Without convincing investigation, I cannot accept the arguer's conclusion that the advertising campaign will be effective in increasing the game sales.

Finally, the arguer fails to take into account other factors that might affect the sales of the newly introduced life-like video games, such as price, channel of distribution, and competition of other companies. Perhaps Whirlwind's newly introduced games are beyond the buying capacity of the main demographic group. 【Or perhaps Whirlwind's distribution channel is poor so that it cannot provide enough copy for consumers】. Or maybe Whirlwind's competitor introduced similar games at a lower price with a better distribution channel than Whirlwind's at the same time. Unless the arguer could rule out these possibilities, I would not be persuaded into accept the conclusion that Whirlwind is about to experience a rapid increase in sales.

To sum up, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. Before I accept the conclusion, the arguer must present a thorough analysis to prove that the reason of the decline of sales lies in Whirlwind's failing to introduce fashionable games and its wrongly oriented advertising strategy. To solidify the argument, the arguer had better make survey on which demographic group plays the most significant role in the sales of video-games and make sure that the advertisements will necessarily attract them.
1．        写的很不错，逻辑性很强，语言表达也好！
2．        只能给你提点小意见，不知道是否恰当。