Argument47【07-10G Superstar大帖】第6次作业 by gyyx

gyyxUID: 2290150

A：47
2007.6.13
In this argument, the author concludes that the cooling in the mid-sixth century, which scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered, was probably due to a volcanic eruption. To support this conclusion, the author states that some records survive from that time in both Asia and Europe record a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Additionally, the author cites two mere reasons for this cooling. As no extant historical records mention a flash that would probably happens during a large meteorite collision, the author gets the conclusion. This argument rests on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions, and is therefore unpersuasive as it stands.

At first, the conclusion bases on an established assumption that the Earth’s temperature had really became lower, resulting in the few records found in Asia and Europe, which are too few to get that assumption. Perhaps the recorders are more sensible to cold than ordinary people, or perhaps other records of that time existent now noted that the earth’s temperature higher and as this result, the earth’s temperature is stable. As the records may not have been representative of all the earth’s temperature without ruling out other records found in the other continent other than Asia and Europe, the earth’s temperature’s lower is unconvincing.

Secondly, even assuming that earth’s cooling of that time was true, it remains problematic to rely on the cause that it is the large dust cloud created by a huge volcanic or a large meteorite  throughout Earth’s atmosphere that block the sunlight. It is highly possible that the earth has its own temperature regulable system which could lower its temperature when its temperature is up to a fixed value. Or perhaps it is the polar glaciers dissolving cause the cooling. If so, the author fails to convince the argument without considering such alternative explanations.

Finally, the author take the possible that the flash is probably created when a meteorite collision happens as a fact must to happen. Moreover, there is an assumption can not be exclude the flash is too sudden to be seen, or perhaps it had been record but the records were not existent today. Furthermore, whether a volcanic eruption is Asia is heavy enough to affect the global temperature, we need more evidence.

In summary, the argument ignores several substantial possibilities that severely undermine its precise. To bolster the conclusion, the author should provide more records that could be found now in other continent and more scientific evidences about a volcanic eruption can really cause a cooling to establish the conclusion.

[ 本帖最后由 gyyx 于 2007-6-14 22:52 编辑 ]

冬天的鹰UID: 2191930

我的老天，你的开头段居然占据了全文篇幅的1/3！

赶快读一读其他人的argument吧，不用评论其他内容了，仅仅是这个超重的开头段就已经给你的文章判了死刑了。