Argument 147 【07-10G 梦开始的地方】 第1次作文 by yunnan
题目:The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine. "Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months." Words: 623 Time: 42分钟 date: 2007. 6. 17. 提纲: 1) 调查的有效性, 数据模糊. 2) 针对10到25岁的年轻人的活动是否能够提高未来的销售量 3)作者忽视了其他可能对销售量产生影响的因素:如竞争者,市场的导向,当地的文化,消费理念. In this editorial the arguer cites a recent survey that video-game players are required to reply what features they thought were most important in a video-game. Base on this evidence the arguer recommends that the sales trend is reversing in a short period and the sales of Whirlwind(W) video-games are likely to soar in the next few months, despite that the sales of W video-games have been flagging during the past two years. To support this conclusion, the arguer points out that players interviewed in the survey prefer games which provide lifelike graphics, which calls for up-to-date computers. Admittedly, the arguer also provides evidence that has just introduced several such games and launched an extensive advertising campaign, which aimed at people 10 to 25 years old, being fond of playing video games most. However, close scrutiny of this evidence and editorial’s line of reasoning reveals that they provide little credible support to the conclusion and therefore is unconvincing as it stands. To begin with, the arguer fails to substantiate the conclusion by showing that video-game players are asked in the survey about what features they consider most or first important to themselves. Thus, it lacks of credibility to assure us that features and the trend of sales have direct correlation in some extent on the basis of unconvincing recent survey. Moreover, the arguer sweeps the claim that players in the survey prefer lifelike graphic, as can indicate that the whole video-game players accentuate the main factor of high quality of screen when playing. Unfairly, the arguer can not rule out the other possibility which may trigger the consequence. Even if the main factor of lifelike indeed affects to some degree on the players, the arguer oversimplifies the matter so that he overlooks the other possible factors which can also influence on the trend of sales. In addition, whether the computer’s configuration, which is in counterpart situation with quality of video game, can process the new-born video-games, is dubious. Or whether the market of supply and command can strike the balance also becomes the reason that occurs the whole consuming of video-games and sales ascending Secondly, the mere fact that W has introduced the several games with extensive campaign directed to the adolescents between 10 and25 is open to doubt and scant evidence. It is not highly probably that this adoring video-games group can objectively reflect the society’s trend, and could not represent the entity of all players. So, the survey lacks of the direct evidence to demonstrate the trend and is insufficient with vague conduction. What’s more, the arguer fails to take into account the correlation with the market and consuming, such as the local culture, the government policy which impedes the new video game because it is possible that some schoolchildren indulge in the website games, and so forth. Finally, the arguer makes uncertain assumption that from the recent survey which reveals that the trend of sales will be reversed, we can make the recommendation that in no faraway future, the sales will increase dramatically. The arguer takes it for granted that the recent conspicuous development show the future on the correlation effect, without considering there is a span in which gigantic changes may take place on the video game market, for instance the rivals who may have the same sort of video-game, but with low price. In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To strongly support the conclusion, the arguer must provide more affirmative evidence that the preference of video-game players can play dominated role on the trend of sales; furthermore such this trend can also contribute to the fast increasing of sales. To better evaluate this argument, the arguer has to prove that the extensive campaign possibly attracts the video game players, therefore promote the sales in few months. | 
发表于 2007-6-19 23:36:40
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