Argument83 【0710G 五一互助小组】新作业第2次 by Cheney

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题目：ARGUMENT83 - The following appeared in a memo from the business manager of Medicine, Inc., a local drugstore.
"Most business analysts for the drugstore industry have stated that even when a nation's economy is weak, drugstores' profits are unlikely to decline appreciably. While consumers might put off some kinds of purchases when the economy is slow, prescription and over-the-counter drug purchases are dictated by consumers' health needs, which are independent of the economy. Therefore, Medicine Inc. is likely to continue to have increasing profits and should plan to open an additional drugstore next year."

In this argument, the author concludes that Medicine may be continuously profitable and should add another drugstore next year. The author bases this conclusion on the statement of business analysts. The reason offered is that drug consumption, which is not governed by economy situation but depends on consumer's health demands, is impossible to decrease significantly when economy is weak. While this argument is somewhat convincing, a few concerns need to be addressed.

First, this argument rests on the questionable assumption that the profits of Medicine Inc. will keep on growing. Yet, the author provides no evidence to sustantiate this assumtion. To make the assumption more convincing, a thorough transection record is neccessary. As a matter of fact, even thouth the company have been profitable in past years, is likely unprofitable next year, especially since the passage explicitly characterizes economy as slow. If so, the author's suggestion would amout to poor advice.

Second, the arguer unfaily assumes that business analysts's statement concerning general tendency applies specifically to  the region where Medicine Inc. located. And as the analysts predicts, drugstore's profits are unlikely to reduce significantly, which is not equal with that profits will increase. It is entirely possible that due to weak economy the local government put far higher taxes on drugstore than the national average, the price of drug on this region is extremely expensive. Thus, local residents like to go to nearby towns to buy the same drug in a lower price. If it is the case, the Medicine Inc. would hardly profit.

Third, not the drugstore's profits all come from sales of prescription and over-the-counter drug, parts of which generally depends on sales of additional products such as healthcare products. And this kind of products probably affected by economy. Suppose, at the period of economy regression reduction of people's income doubtless lead to decline in purchases of healthcare products. Accordingly, these changes must decrease drugstore's total profits more or less.

At last, even if it is granted that MI's profits continue to advance, this fact alone  is insufficient to support the suggestion that MI should open another drugstore next year. Whether or not to add a new store is determined by consumer's demand, costs of the new store, predictable profits and so forth. Without deliberate consideration, the author's suggestion appears fallasious and unconvincing.

To sum up, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. Befor we accept the the claim, the arguer should paint a more substantiate and accurate picture of Medicine Inc.' business. Additionally, the arguer must make a detailed investigation on local drug markets.



[ 本帖最后由 hotmailcj 于 2007-7-6 18:53 编辑 ]