argument94

hlzhang431UID: 2297648

ARGUMENT94 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of Bower Builders, a company that constructs new homes.

"A nationwide survey reveals that the two most desired home features are a bathroom with a whirlpool tub and a large kitchen. Homes in a nearby development built by our competitor, Domus Construction, have whirlpool tubs and have sold much faster and at significantly higher prices than the average. To increase our sales and profits, we should include whirlpool tubs and larger kitchens as standard features in all our new homes. Since our recent buyers have voiced no complaints about small yards, we can also increase profits by decreasing the size of our yards."

Merely based on an unwarranted survey, a false causal relationship, the president of Bower Builders (BB) recommends that for the purpose of increasing their sales and profits, their new homes should include with whirlpool tubs and larger kitchens, besides, they should downsize the size of their yards. Close scrutiny of it reveals that it suffers from many logical fallacies and thus is unconvincing.

To begin with, the survey methodology that the president uses seems to be problematic for the following several respects: Firstly, we are not informed as to the number of participants in the survey, their age brackets, etc. If there were only a small number of people participate in the survey, of which most of them are the old, then these respondents could not represent the whole public and thus its results might be unreliable. Secondly, even if a great number of people nationwide prefer homes with whirlpool tubs and large kitchens, the arguer fails to mention one of the most important factors, that is, whether they are likely to buy such kind of homes in the near future. Possibly most of these participants already possess such kind of homes or for the sake of saving money, people might be more willing to buy homes with smaller kitchens even if they like otherwise. Without ruling out these possibilities, the survey might be no reliable.

Secondly, the fact that homes built by DC have sold much faster and at significantly higher prices than the average might has nothing to do with whirlpool tubs. And the author has overlooked a myriad of alternatives that might best illustrate this point. Other alternatives include: the quality and after service conditions of these homes, the location of these homes, nearby traffic conditions and shopping malls, etc. Consequently, without considering these possibilities, the causal relationship that the arguer establishes between the popularity of these homes and the whirlpool tubs might be dubious. Besides, even if the whirlpool tubs were indeed responsible for the popularity of these homes, it does not necessarily imply that homes with whirlpool tubs and large kitchens might be sold well. Possibly people are more prefer to homes with smaller kitchens.

Finally, the assertion that in order to increase profits, they could also decrease the size of their yards might be unwarranted. On the one hand, the fact that recent buyers have voice no complaints about small yards does not necessarily mean that they are satisfied with small yards. Perhaps they have not realized the inconveniences of small yards and they might complain about this matter in the near future. Even if they were indeed pleased with small yards, it could not simply imply that future buyers would also be contended. Thus it is entirely possible that due to small yards, future buyers would refuse to buy their homes.

In a word, the president's inference lacks of credibility as it stands in that he or she has overlooked or chosen to ignore many aspects of his or her conclusion. To further substantiate it, more detailed information should be provided regarding the participants of the survey and the real reason why DC抯 homes are more popular than theirs. Besides, the arguer should convince us that future buyers would be willing to have homes with small yards.

(2007-7-8 21:58:42)



[ 本帖最后由 hlzhang431 于 2007-7-10 10:09 编辑 ]

itwillbefineUID: 2358310

Merely based on an unwarranted survey, 感觉用and读起来顺一些a false causal relationship, the president of Bower Builders (BB) recommends that for the purpose of increasing their sales and profits, their new homes should include with whirlpool tubs and larger kitchens, besides, they should downsize后面有size了，用diminish会不会更好？ the size of their yards. Close scrutiny of it reveals that it suffers from many logical fallacies and thus is unconvincing.中心句的it感觉指代不清

To begin with, the survey methodology that the president uses seems to be seems的语调不适合反驳，直接用is更有力problematic for the following several respects: Firstly, we are not informed as to the number of participants in the survey, their age brackets, etc. If there were only a small number of people participate ??participating in the survey, of which most of them??most of which are the old, then these respondents could not represent the whole public 这样说固然可以，但总觉得比较牵强，可以试着攻击a nationwide survey may not represent the situation of a specific region and thus its 还是指代不清results might be unreliable. Secondly, even if a great number of people nationwide prefer homes with whirlpool tubs and large kitchens, the arguer fails to mention one of the most important factors, that is, whether they are likely to buy such kind of homes in the near future. Possibly most of these participants already possess such kind of homes or for the sake of saving money, people might be more willing to buy homes with smaller kitchens even if they like otherwise. Without ruling out these possibilities, the survey might be no reliable.第二个分论点不错

Secondly, the fact that homes built by DC have sold much faster and at significantly higher prices than the average might has nothing to do with whirlpool tubs. And??用逗号合并成一句 the author has overlooked a myriad of alternatives that might best illustrate this point. Other alternatives include: the quality and after service conditions of these homes, the location of these homes, nearby traffic conditions and shopping malls, etc. Consequently, without considering these possibilities, the causal relationship that the arguer establishes between the popularity of these homes and the whirlpool tubs might be dubious. Besides, even if the whirlpool tubs were indeed responsible for the popularity of these homes, it does not necessarily imply that homes with whirlpool tubs and large kitchens might be sold well主动语态. Possibly people are ???more prefer to homes with smaller kitchens.

Finally, the assertion that in order to increase profits, they could also decrease the size of their yards might be unwarranted. On the one hand,这个转折的意图看不懂 the fact that recent buyers have voice no complaints about small yards does not necessarily mean that they are satisfied with small yards. Perhaps they have not realized the inconveniences of small yards and they might complain about this matter in the near future. Even if they were indeed pleased with small yards, it could not simply imply that future buyers would also be contended. Thus it is entirely possible that due to small yards, future buyers would refuse to buy their homes.

In a word, the president's inference lacks of??动词不用of credibility as it stands in that he or she has overlooked or chosen to ignore many aspects of his or her conclusion. To further substantiate it, more detailed information should be provided regarding the participants of the survey and the real reason why DC抯 homes are more popular than theirs. Besides, the arguer should convince us that future buyers would be willing to have homes with small yards.

感觉上，几个大的逻辑错误点都找到了
1 The survey lacks credibility
2 The causal relationship between the particular design and higher-than-average prices is not established
3 Reducing in the size of yards may arouse complaint in the future and turn away potential buyers.
只是具体展开还可以进一步加强
另外，语言上还是有些不太通顺的地方，不少代词诸如it， their使用过于频繁，指代也不明确。

个人观点，仅供参考，如有错误，欢迎指正。加油!!