Argument147 [OB小组]_第1次作业

ldongxpUID: 2311083

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
        DATE: 2007-7-13
In this argument, the author concludes that the sales trend of Whirlwind video games would be reversed though its sales have decreased over the past two years. To support this conclusion, the author cites the survey of video-game players. The author also points out that Whirlwind video games has just introduced some games with advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25. However, this argument suffers from several critical flaws and is therefore unpersuasive as it stands.

Firstly, there is a problem involves with the survey. The statistical reliability of the survey is questionable. That is to say this survey merely involves with a part of all the video game players and those are not representive of all the video game players. Lacking information the randomness and size of the survey sample, the speaker cannot draw a broader conclusion  based on the survey.

Secondly, the fact that players prefer games with lifelike graphics dose not necessarily indicate that players would buy such games. Perhaps the players are limited by their incoming and cannot afford for the most up-to-date computers which the games with lifelike graphics need. Or perhaps games with lifelike graphics are too expensive for them to buy. Without ruling out these and other possibilities, the author cannot make me conviced.

Thirdly, that extensive advertising campaign directed to people at 10 to 25 years old has little indication that sales of Whirlwind video games would increase. It is entirely possible that the this advertising campaign does not successfully show the features of games by Whirlwind video games. Another possibility is that the players don't like to watch advertising. Without accounting for these and other possibilities, the author cannot make a persuasive conclusion.

Finally, the author overlooks other factors that result in the fact that the increase of Whirlwind video games' sales. According to the author’s conclusion, the increase is merely due to the advertising campaign. However, in all likelihood, this is simply not the case. Perhaps the economic environment would be down in the next months and the player would not have enough money to pay for new games. Or perhaps the price of the games of Whirlwind video games are too expensive and few people would buy the games.Or perhaps games of other companies attract most players so that few would buy those of Whirlwind video games. In short in order to properly conclude that the sales of Whirlwind video games would increase, the author must rule out all other feasible explanations for the disparity.

In sum,  the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster this conclusion the author must provide clear evidence that the player would buy the games with lifelike graphics. Also, the author must point out that the survey is statistically reliable. To better assess the conclusion, we would need more detail about general economic environment, and more information about the players.

OB叔UID: 188695

In this argument, the author concludes that the sales trend of Whirlwind video games would be reversed though its sales have decreased over the past two years. To support this conclusion, the author cites the survey of video-game players. The author also points out that Whirlwind video games has just introduced some games with advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25. However, this argument suffers from several critical flaws and is therefore unpersuasive as it stands.开头总的说了一下作者论述的有问题，这种开头可以

Firstly, there is a problem involves with the survey. The statistical reliability of the survey is questionable. That is to say this survey merely involves with a part of all the video game players and those are not representive of all the video game players. Lacking information the randomness and size of the survey sample, the speaker cannot draw a broader conclusion  based on the survey.这一段对survey的攻击太过于简单和随意了

Secondly, the fact that players prefer games with lifelike graphics dose not necessarily indicate that players would buy such games. Perhaps the players are limited by their incoming and cannot afford for the most up-to-date computers which the games with lifelike graphics need. Or perhaps games with lifelike graphics are too expensive for them to buy. Without ruling out these and other possibilities, the author cannot make me conviced.【拼写错误一定不要犯，改为convinced】

Thirdly, that extensive advertising campaign directed to people at 10 to 25 years old has little indication that sales of Whirlwind video games would increase. It is entirely possible that the this advertising campaign does not successfully show the features of games by Whirlwind video games. Another possibility is that the players don't 【在AW的论述中所有的拼写都必须是正轨格式，应改为do not】like to watch advertising. Without accounting for these and other possibilities, the author cannot make a persuasive conclusion.

Finally, the author overlooks other factors that result in the fact that the increase of Whirlwind video games' sales. According to the author’s conclusion, the increase is merely due to the advertising campaign. However, in all likelihood, this is simply not the case. Perhaps the economic environment would be down in the next months and the player would not have enough money to pay for new games. Or perhaps the price of the games of Whirlwind video games are too expensive and few people would buy the games. Or perhaps games of other companies attract most players so that few would buy those of Whirlwind video games.【这里的举例论证非常好，不过2个比较少，你可以更多的弄】 In short in order to properly conclude that the sales of Whirlwind video games would increase, the author must rule out all other feasible explanations for the disparity.

In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster this conclusion the author must provide clear evidence that the player would buy the games with lifelike graphics. Also, the author must point out that the survey is statistically reliable. To better assess the conclusion, we would need more detail about general economic environment, and more information about the players.
总的来说写的不错，每段的结构很好，都是先是一个Topic Sentence，然后在论述，这个以后要坚持。

[ 本帖最后由 Orange&Blue 于 2007-7-14 11:50 编辑 ]