arguement65【07-10G 梦开始的地方】 第4次作文 by messiah229

messiah229UID: 2209538

65The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
1.       在W新开的商店不能推论到其他地区,去年的国内的卖得好不一定今年和以后的也会卖的好
2.       卖得最好不一定利润最高,可能价格低
3.    调查的代表性,
4.    市场竞争
32-09 TIME 37m
In this memo,the president concludes that the best way to improve profits in all of their stores is to discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.To support his conclusion the president points out that the five best-selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin last year.He then cites a survey by Cheeses of the World magazine,which indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers.As it stands,the article suffers from several critical flaws as follows.

First,the problem is that the situations in Wisconsin and other places are not similar enough to justify the analogical deduction.Perhaps the residences in Wisconsin have a long-formed habit to eat domestic cheese other than imported ones,thus have a more special favor in domestic cheese than those live in the other cities.So,even though domestic cheese is proved to be sold better than imported ones in Wisconsin,there is no guarantee that it will just sell as well in other cities throughout the country.Even if the soar in selling of domestic cheese in Wisconsin can represent a popular trend in the whole country last year,we are not sure that in this year and future times the trend will keep on.

Second,only given the information that the domestic cheese are best-selling in quantitve,we can’t draw the conclusion that the profit it brings are the largest.It is entirely possible that the price of the dometic cheese are far lower than the imported ones,thus perhaps the profit got by selling five domestic cheeses are just equal to the profit got by selling only one imported cheese.If it’s the case,the limitation in selling the imported cheese is undoubtedly a wrong determination.

Third,the president provides no evidence that the survey in the magazine is statistically significance and representative of the overall consumers of cheeses throughout the country.The smaller the sample of the survey is ,the less reliable the conclusion it draw is.In addition,there is another possibility that the people inclined to domestic cheese were more willing to  respond to the magazine than other people were,which will destroy the validity of the survey as well.

Last,even if the preference to domestic cheese throughout the world is proved true and could last for some periods,the presidences lacks the evidence to show that his chain of cheese stores could attract the consumers successfully.Since there are many cheese stores in the country,if the presidence’s stores don’t have any advantages in the tasts and kinds of the cheese and service of good quality such as deliver the cheese to the subscribers in time and deal with the consumer’s complaints decently,the president couldn’t assert that his stores would surely beat other competitors.

To sum up,the conclution reached in the memo lacks credibility since the evidence cited in it doesn’t lend strong suppor to what the president claims.To make the article more convincing,the president should provide more evidence to show that the situation of selling the cheese in Wisconsin can represent the whole circumstance of selling in the whold country,and the trend of preference of the domestic cheese can last for some time. To better evaluate the article,we need a detailed analysis of the cost and the profit of the domestic cheese and the imported ones.Moreover,to convince us the president had better to present some obvious advantages of his stores over his competitors’ stores.