Argument99 【7.23 请猛拍】斑斑有时间给看看吧，就剩7天了

gyyxUID: 2290150

ARGUMENT99 - The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.

"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."
WORDS: 528          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-7-23 16:01:59

The author suggests in this memo that we should encourage our farmers to cultivate a new variety of seed in order to increase their income, due to Abundia--our neighboring country's success in production. The author even deduce that we could improve our country's balance of trade through exporting the rice by this way. However, a close scrunity to this argument, some logic flaws emerges.

At the beginning, the author assume a cause-effect relationship between production increase and income increase rely on the mere fact that Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than any previous year, which is not logical in fact. The author does not provide any evidence indicating that the farmer's income of Abundia is increasing. Maybe this new seed is costly while the price is low, so there's a decrease in the farmers' income actually. Or perhaps, many farmers cultivate this seed, and the production of the society is increasing, thus the price of the rice remain the same or even lower, and the result of this high production and low price the income of the farmers remains steady as previous years. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author could not follow that the seed could improve the farmers' income.

Secondly, the author fails to take the difference between our country and Abundia into consideration. As discussing above, even if assume this seed could let increase the farmers' income in Abundia, we could not sure it is the same situation in our Country--Paucia. Abundia and Paucia may be different in some realms, which is essential to a seed to survive, such as terrain, climate, planting time and harvest time. So it is highly possible that the seed planted in Paucia could only produce 40 percent or even lower percent increase in production. And also there may be a decrease in the production. Additionally, the quality of the rice may varies in these two areas, in Abundia soft, while in Paucia rigid. Lack of information of these two places let me make these assumptions, which the author could not refuse due to no evidence.

Thirdly, the author assumes that we may improve our country's balance of trade by enabling to exporting this rice due to his high production, which it is not tenable. One country's balance of trade is a complex problem, which many factors involve in. If only some countries, ours included, could produce more amount of this rice than the internal need and there is a abundant need in other countries, we may could balance our trade through this way. If not this situation, as the author did not provide any evidence to predict, we could not predict that we may improve our balance of trade through this.

So, to summarize, due to oversimplified consideration and unwarranted assumption, as discussing above, the author fails to convince me of his conclusion. To bolster the argument, he/she should provide more statistics on the income increasing in Abundia and the comparability between the two countries to indicate the seed will improve the income of the Paucia’s farmers. To better access this argument, the information and statistics on the trade of exporting is necessary too.

njuzhshaoUID: 2258118

The author suggests in this memo that we should encourage our farmers to cultivate a new variety of seed in order to increase their income, due to Abundia--our neighboring country's success in production. The author even deduce that we could improve our country's balance of trade through exporting the rice by this way. However, [after/with] a close scrunity to this argument, some logic flaws emerges.
At the beginning, the author assume a cause-effect relationship between production increase and income increase rely on the mere fact that Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than any previous year[此句逻辑有问题，the author assume ... relationship ... rely on fact... ，看出来了？ relationship是不会rely on fact的，是assume relationship之后，“增收“这个结论rely on fact of 增产，后面的这个推理错在relationship为假], which is not logical in fact. The author does not provide any evidence indicating that the farmer's income of Abundia is increasing. Maybe this new seed is costly while the price is low, so there's a decrease in the farmers' income actually. Or perhaps, many farmers cultivate this seed, and the production of the society is increasing, thus the price of the rice remain the same or even lower, and the result of this high production and low price the income of the farmers remains steady as previous years. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author could not follow that the seed could improve the farmers' income.[这里论证的很好，有充分的反面可能]
Secondly, the author fails to take the difference between our country and Abundia into consideration. As discussing above[！这个地方你并没有坚持上面论述的错误，反而让步了，不能用AS], even if assume this seed could let increase the farmers' income in Abundia, we could not sure[assure] it is[will be 比较好，situation就可以用来指收成] the same situation in our Country--Paucia. Abundia and Paucia may be different in some realms, which is[are] essential to a seed to survive, such as terrain, climate, planting time and harvest time. So it is highly possible that the seed planted in Paucia could only produce 40 percent or even lower percent increase in production. And also there may be a decrease in the production. Additionally, the quality of the rice may varies in these two areas,[这个方面提得准！] in Abundia soft, while in Paucia rigid. Lack of information of these two places let me make these assumptions, which the author could not refuse due to no evidence.[论述上很丰富，很成功]
Thirdly, the author assumes[建议换用suggests句] that we may improve our country's balance of trade by enabling to exporting this rice due to his high production, which it is not tenable. One country's balance of trade is a complex problem, which many factors involve in. If only some countries, ours included, could produce more amount of this rice than the internal need and there is a abundant need in other countries, we may could balance our trade through this way. If not this situation, as the author did not provide any evidence to predict, we could not predict that we may improve our balance of trade through this.[此段表述有些不清楚，反例情况不是太典型]
So, to summarize, due to oversimplified consideration and unwarranted assumption, as discussing above, the author fails to convince me of his conclusion. To bolster the argument, he/she should provide more statistics on the income increasing in Abundia and the comparability between the two countries to indicate the seed will improve the income of the Paucia’s farmers. To better access this argument, the information and statistics on the trade of exporting is necessary too.[gyyx认为末段应当怎么结？……我一直不是很悟，这篇结的还好。]

gyyxUID: 2290150

我自己认为结尾应该重点指出最主要的矛盾吧，就像是作者没有总结出他自己的结论，然后再说怎么改进吧
感觉你的那个太简短了

破釜沉舟UID: 2113052

The author suggests in this memo that we should encourage our farmers to cultivate a new variety of seed in order to increase their income, due to Abundia--our neighboring country's success in production. The author even deduce that we could improve our country's balance of trade through exporting the rice by this way. However, a close scrunity to this argument, some logic flaws emerges.

At the beginning, the author assume a cause-effect relationship between production increase and income increase rely on the mere fact that Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than any previous year, which is not logical in fact. The author does not provide any evidence indicating that the farmer's income of Abundia is increasing. Maybe this new seed is costly while the price is low, so there's a decrease in the farmers' income actually. Or perhaps, many farmers cultivate this seed, and the production of the society is increasing, thus the price of the rice remain the same or even lower, and the result of this high production and low price the income of the farmers remains steady as previous years. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author could not follow that the seed could improve the farmers' income.（还有可能增长了80%以后A的产量还不如P。还有产量增加不一定由种子引起，这个可以驳斥一下。）

Secondly, the author fails to take the difference between our country and Abundia into consideration. As discussing above, even if assume this seed could let increase the farmers' income in Abundia, we could not sure it is the same situation in our Country--Paucia. Abundia and Paucia may be different in some realms, which is essential to a seed to survive, such as terrain, climate, planting time and harvest time. So it is highly possible that the seed planted in Paucia could only produce 40 percent or even lower percent increase in production. And also there may be a decrease in the production. Additionally, the quality of the rice may varies in these two areas, in Abundia soft, while in Paucia rigid. Lack of information of these two places let me make these assumptions, which the author could not refuse due to no evidence.（放弃传统作物的做法也有问题）

Thirdly, the author assumes that we may improve our country's balance of trade by enabling to exporting this rice due to his high production, which it is not tenable. One country's balance of trade is a complex problem, which many factors involve in. If only some countries, ours included, could produce more amount of this rice than the internal need and there is a abundant need in other countries, we may could balance our trade through this way. If not this situation, as the author did not provide any evidence to predict, we could not predict that we may improve our balance of trade through this.（没有国家来买也不行。还可以考虑贸易结构，如果进口的都是飞机航母，用大米也很难平衡）

So, to summarize, due to oversimplified consideration and unwarranted assumption, as discussing above, the author fails to convince me of his conclusion. To bolster the argument, he/she should provide more statistics on the income increasing in Abundia and the comparability between the two countries to indicate the seed will improve the income of the Paucia’s farmers. To better access this argument, the information and statistics on the trade of exporting is necessary too.