Argument209 [Victors小组]第十六次作业

乳虎UID: 2251211

209The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.

"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."

提纲：
1作者把Fancy Toy Company利润下降和Pat Salvo的领导之间的相关关系等同为因果关系。
2作者把Starlight Jewelry利润上升和Rosa Winnings的领导之间的相关关系等同为因果关系。
3作者犯了错误推理的错误。

In this argument the arguer recommend  the board of directors of the Gancy Toy Comapny that they should ask for their president Pat Salvo's resignation, appoint Rosa Winnings and pay Rossa teice the salary that pat has been receiving. The arguer claims further that under the leadership of Pat Winnings, Fancy Toy Company's profits will increase considerably. I believe that the argument suspect in several respects.

The threshold problem is the arguer falsely equates the correlation of the leadership of Pat Salvo and the declining of Fancy Toy Company's profit to causation. However, the arguer fails to provide any evidence to support the causation. Actually, profit is the function of many factors, such as the price of the raw material, the policy of government and so on. It is entirely possible that the raw material which Fancy Toy Company use soared while the demand in toy market keep consistent. It is also possible, the countries which imported toys from Fancy Toy Company raised their tariff markedly. In that case, it is indeterminate factors rather than Pat Salvo's leadership that make Fancy Toy Company's profit decline.

Another problem is that the fact that Starlight Jewelry's profit have increased dramatically over the past several years can not make sure that Rosa is a transcendent president. Maybe all companies in that business have experienced a marked increase in profit, even more than Starlight jewelru's. In that case the increase of profit sprang from other factors in market or the policy of government rather than the ability of Rosa Winnings. Because the arguer fail to take account in and eliminate that possibility, he or she can not convince me.
  
Last but not the least, even if Rosa Winnings has increased the profit of Starlight jewlry, the arguer further assumes that he can bring the same luck for Fancy Toy Company soon. The arguer fail to provide us with the information about the business of Starlight Jewelry, so it is tempting to ask whether it is completely irrelative with toy business. It is totally possible that the business of  Starlight Jewelry is completely different with Fancy Toy Company’s. For that matter, Rosa Winnings’s tactic will not apply to Fancy Toy Company’s. The worse is that Rosa Winnings is not familiar with toy business at all, in that case he is likely decrease Fancy Toy Company’s profit. Unless the arguer exclude foregoing possibility , he can not rely on the assumption to make any sound recommendation.

To sum up, the arguer commits a series of crucial logical flaws which render his recommendation not tenable. In order to consolidate it, the arguer must analyze the reason why Fancy Toy Company's profit declined and the reason why Starlight jewelry's profit raised. In addition the arguer must provide evidence to indicate that Rosa Winnings will increase the profit of Fancy Toy Company.

[ 本帖最后由 乳虎 于 2007-7-25 23:14 编辑 ]