Argument147

woodmanUID：161906

Argument147
The arguerconcludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramaticallyin the next few months in that a recent survey of video-game players suggeststhat this sales trend is about to be reversed. His view seems to be sound and convincingat first glance. However, I’m afraid his argument can hardly bear furtherconsideration since there are several flaws in it.

Firstly, thearguer fails to provide convincing information about the survey. He does nottell us whether people who took the survey are representative and the number ofthe respondents remains unknown. Perhaps most respondents of the survey arethose who have fairly high requirement on lifelike graphics while other peoplewho did not participate in the survey highly value other factors such as thecontent, the intense degree, and the background music of the game. So it isentirely possible that such survey lose to represents need of game players.Also, if only a small number of game players are involved in the survey, perhapsjust 50 people or even less, such survey is not typical to reflect the truesituation of the game market need.

Secondly,even if the survey that most players prefer games that provide lifelikegraphics is trustworthy, there is no evidence shows that Whirlwind’s extensive advertising campaign is successful. Perhapsthe advertising plans are not attracted enough to let more and more players buyWhirlwind's lifelike games. For example, the advertisements style might be too old-fashionedfor players to accept. Even though the advertising is attractive, no evidenceshows that people 10-25 years old are the main customers of the video game.Thus, the extensive advertising campaign’s strategy of aiming at 10-25 yearsold people might be a mistake. Without ruling the possibilities above, the arguer’sconclusion is problematic.

Finally,given that Whirlwind’s extensive advertising campaignis successful, a good sale of its video games is unwarranted. As Whirlwind’svideo games require the mostup-to-date computers, it is possible that players donot have computers good enough to play such games, especially for those who are10 to 25 years old and has no income; buying or updating computers must becostly to afford. Therefore, some players would not buy Whirlwind'sproductions. Also, perhaps there are many large game companies which have anexperienced sale team and good fame among customers introduce such kind ofvideo games. Compared with them, Whirlwind might be far less competitive andonly occupies a small fraction of the market, and perhaps that’s why its salesdeclined in the past two years. Thus, in the fierce competition of the videomarket, Whirlwind might not increase its sale.

In all,to persuade me that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increasedramatically in the next few months, the arguer must provide detail informationthat the survey that most players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics isreliable, and offer convincing evidence that Whirlwind’sextensive advertising campaign is successful to persuade people who are 10-25years old to buy such video games. Moreover, the arguer should show me that Whirlwind will certainly make a good sale of its video games.

提纲
39
1.没有证据表明有足够多的学生愿意注册远程学位
2.O校的经验不一定适合H校
3. 远程学位不一定能解决H校的财政问题

217
1.关注体型健康不一定会去体育馆健身
2.没有证明表明所有的P都赢利
3.五百多地方有P，不一定有空间允许新的投资

160
1.研究的可信度。
2.在老鼠身上适用不一定在人身上适用
3.学生记忆力较差或者因记忆力不集中可能不是生理问题

151

1. 不一定是前市长的责任
2. 两桥的情况不同      

[ 本帖最后由 woodman 于 2007-7-26 19:10 编辑 ]

269750640UID：2358012

Argument147
The arguer concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramaticallyin the next few months in that a recent survey of video-game players suggeststhat this sales trend is about to be reversed. His view seems to be sound and convincingat first glance. However, I’m afraid his argument can hardly bear furtherconsideration since there are several flaws in it.

Firstly, the arguer fails to provide convincing information about the survey. He does not tell us whether people who took the survey are representative and the number ofthe respondents remains unknown. Perhaps most respondents of the survey arethose who have fairly high requirement on lifelike graphics while other peoplewho did not participate in the survey highly value other factors such as thecontent, the intense degree, and the background music of the game. So it isentirely possible that such survey lose to represents need of game players.Also, if only a small number of game players are involved in the survey, perhapsjust 50 people or even less, such survey is not typical to reflect the truesituation of the game market need. 调查的问题
（从第一点到第二点之间你默认了一作者推断的默认的一个前提，人们如果喜欢，就愿意买）这点是和广告是否成功没有关系的。如果人们喜欢 但是人们不买的话，广告即使成功了也没有任何意义 ：））
Secondly,even if the survey that most players prefer games that provide lifelikegraphics is trustworthy, there is no evidence shows that Whirlwind’s extensive advertising campaign is successful. Perhapsthe advertising plans are not attracted enough to let more and more players buyWhirlwind's lifelike games. For example, the advertisements style might be too old-fashionedfor players to accept. Even though the advertising is attractive, no evidenceshows that people 10-25 years old are the main customers of the video game.Thus, the extensive advertising campaign’s strategy of aiming at 10-25 yearsold people might be a mistake. Without ruling the possibilities above, the arguer’sconclusion is problematic.
（关于10-25之间的人群不会是主要的客户个人觉得可以提供更多的反例）
Finally,given that Whirlwind’s extensive advertising campaignis successful, a good sale of its video games is unwarranted. As Whirlwind’svideo games require the mostup-to-date computers, it is possible that players donot have computers good enough to play such games, especially for those who are10 to 25 years old and has no income; buying or updating computers must becostly to afford. Therefore, some players would not buy Whirlwind'sproductions. Also, perhaps there are many large game companies which have anexperienced sale team and good fame among customers introduce such kind ofvideo games. Compared with them, Whirlwind might be far less competitive andonly occupies a small fraction of the market, and perhaps that’s why its salesdeclined in the past two years. Thus, in the fierce competition of the videomarket, Whirlwind might not increase its sale. （我觉得这一点是属于一开始应该批驳的，而不是最后一段）


In all,to persuade me that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increasedramatically in the next few months, the arguer must provide detail informationthat the survey that most players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics isreliable, and offer convincing evidence that Whirlwind’sextensive advertising campaign is successful to persuade people who are 10-25years old to buy such video games. Moreover, the arguer should show me that Whirlwind will certainly make a good sale of its video games.
个人感觉你的逻辑思路不是很清晰
我觉得逻辑走势是这样
1.        调查说明了人们将会购买有好的视觉效果的游戏（支持事实，那个调查，漏洞，情节不好？游戏要求配置高？价格高？）
2.        这些人当中的10-25的人，最有可能买我们的游戏（支持事实，他们是最可能玩游戏的，漏洞，钱的问题（这个地方注意，在第一点中也有钱的问题，但是和这里的钱的问题不是一个概念，第二点是在第一点成立的条件下批驳的，比如，人们（包括所有的年龄段的人）会因为喜欢去买，但是特定的群体10-25岁之间的人 ，可能因为钱而不去购买，这个不是重复，前提是不一样的，范围也不一样）
3.        广告针对10-25之间的人是有效的。（没有事实。你批驳了这点）
4.        1.2.3以上三点的成立会带来销售的上升（没有事实，你没有批驳）
这是为什么我这样写我的ARGU提纲的原因，表明上看大家都在批评同一个错误，但是 本质是不一样的，思路也是不一样的
以上都是个人意见，希望对你有所参考价值。
非常欣赏你的I