argument65 [SJTU-ETB6 10G] 第6次作业

shineshiningUID: 2349246

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 471          TIME: 01:03:22          DATE: 2007-8-6 15:55:11

In this argument, the president of a chain of cheese stores nationwide recommends that to stop stocking most of imported cheese and focus on domestic cheese is the most effective way to increase their profits in all their cheese stores. To justify this recommendation, the author points out that the domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin were the best-selling cheeses at their newest store. A survey conducted by Cheeses of the World magazine, which is also cited to indicate that more and more its subscribers prefer domestic cheeses. At first glance, this recommendation might be somehow reasonable, but further consideration reveals that it contains several logical flaws and is therefore unpersuasive as it stands.

Firstly, the author depends on the assumption that the well sold domestic cheeses in the newest founded stores are equally reflected that of overall stores. Based on such a special example, it is logically unsounded to establish a general conclusion. Perhaps people in different regions have distinct habits of choosing cheeses, so it is highly possible that imported cheese are sold much better than the domestic in other stores. In fact, in face of such limited evidence, it is fallacious to draw any conclusion at all. Unless it can be shown that the newest founded stores are representative of all stores in chain, the conclusion is completely unwarranted.

Moreover, even thought the sell situation of the newest stores can reflect that of overall stores and domestic cheeses are indeed sold better. Yet, selling better is not certainly means earning more. Understandably, imported goods are usually more profitable. It is highly possible that the amount of imported cheeses sold is less than the domestic, but its profit is more.  Without considering and ruling out this and other alternatives possibilities, the author can not confidently make this recommendation.

Last but not the least, the argument rests on a survey conducted by Cheeses of the World magazine indicating that increasing number of its subscribers inclined to choose domestic cheese. Samples for the survey should be statistically reliable. Unfortunately, the arguer provides no assurance that the subscribers of this magazine are enough representativeness of overall customers of cheeses. It is highly possible that they choose the domestic ones owing to a patriotic sensibility. Therefore, the survey result cited here is too vague to be informative, on which the conclusion depends is unwarranted.

To sum up, the recommendation for terminating the stocking of imported cheese is not well supported in the statement. To convince me that the domestic cheeses would be popular, the author should provides more clear evidence that the survey results possess representativeness. For a stronger argument, the author would need to directly put forth more information in detail associating the sell situation of all stores. Without more support, the author's point of view is unconvincing and not well reasonable.