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发表于 2007-8-14 00:06:32
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TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 316 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2007-8-13 23:28:38
The argument is not cogent because it draw a conclusion that the best way to improve profit in all of the cheese stores is to discontinue stocking many of the imported cheese and focus primarily on domestic cheeses--on a basis of a recent survey of a magazine and the sales at the newest stores, which is unreasonable. And I find this argument specious, on several grounds.
Firstly, nor does the mere fact that the success of cheddar cheeses at the newest store lends support to the conjecture that the domestic cheeses would be sold well in the whole chain of cheese stores, for two reasons. One, the arguer fails to provide any information concerning the location of the newest store. Presumably, these stores are located in Wisconsin, the exact place where cheddar was manufactured. Given this possible scenario, the best sales were just because of the dominant location, not the domestic brand.
Two, the brand cheddar cannot represent the whole domestic cheese. It is entirely possible that cheddar is a new kind of cheese in the market and has a promotion project in the newest stores--such as low price, advertisement strategy, free tasting, buy one get one free, and so forth. Besides, the arguer provides no information about the sales of other domestic cheeses except cheddar. Perhaps other domestic cheeses have dim market sales for years for the reason of their unpalatable smell. Any of the two possibilities, if true, would considerable doubt on the conclusion.
We might also ask: Can these respondents of the magazine represent the overall population of cheese customers? The arguer fails to provide any information about the distribution areas of the magazine and the background of the respondents. As we know, the survey of a certain location cannot explain the situation throughout the country. Moreover, given that these subscribers are the domestic cheese producers, the result of the survey would be questionable, at best. Further, the increasing preference does not mean the purchasing power. Maybe it is just an inclination of the customers, but would not change their used favor of the cheese.
In sum, the argument is not persuasive as it stands. Before we accept the conclusion, the arguer must provide more information about the location of the new stores, the cheddar cheese ,as well as the magazine survey.
[ 本帖最后由 地球的小星星 于 2007-8-14 00:13 编辑 ] |
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