Argument45 球拍

lucy_pandoraUID: 2364179

还是有一些超时，感觉里面有一些语言用的也不太恰当，求大虾们指导

Argument 45  The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search forfood by moving over ice from island to island during the course of ayear. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain theplants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year,for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deerto travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from localhunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reportscoincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea iceto melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations isthe result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migrationpatterns across the frozen sea."

   
    Merely based on a series of unwarranted assumptions and dubious evidence, the editorial's author concludes that the decrease in number of arctic deer is caused by the recent global warming trends. At first glance, the argument appears to be somewhat logical. Careful examination of the author's reasoning, however, reveals that the editorial is specious in several critical respects.
    First of all, the editorial provides no evidence that the report on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. Since the report was from local hunters, it is entirely possible that they drew the conclusion on the mere basis of the number of arctic deer they hunt. However, this did little to testify the decline in the overall population of this kind of deer. Perhaps arctic deer change their life style for some environmental reasons. And the hunters' hunting ability can also affect the number they hunt. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot rely on the report to conclude that the population of arctic deer has declined.
    Secondly, the author hastily assumes that Canada's arctic region where arctic deer live is warmer than before because of the recent global warming trends. However, this could not be the case. For all we know the climate in every geographic part of the world could be affected by various factors. For that matter, perhaps Canada's arctic region is colder than before despite the global warming trends. Since the author provide no information about the temperature in this particular region, I simply cannot be convinced that the region where arctic deer live becomes warmer.
    Finally, even the author can substantiate all the foregoing assumptions, I remain unconvinced that the warmer climate in Canada's arctic region is the unique reason for the decline in arctic deer population. For example, this decline can be caused by factors such as over-hunting, changes of their living environment, sharp decrease in their regular food, to name just a few. Without taking account such possibilities, the author cannot convince me that it is the change of climate caused the deaths of arctic deer.
    In sum, the argument is neither sound nor persuasive. Not only does it leave out key issues, but also cites in the analysis the evidence, which does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims. To strengthen it, the author would have to provide clear information about the overall population of arctic deer, and the temperature statistics of Canada's arctic region as well. To better assess the argument, I would need to know all the possible factors that can affect the life styles of arctic deer and therefore cause their deaths. If the argument includes the above-mentioned factors, it would have been more thorough and adequate.

[ 本帖最后由 lucy_pandora 于 2007-8-19 19:29 编辑 ]

abzeroUID: 2308499

Merely based on a series of unwarranted assumptions and dubious evidence, the editorial's author concludes that the decrease in number of arctic deer is caused by the recent global warming trends. At first glance, the argument appears to be somewhat logical. Careful examination of the author's reasoning, however, reveals that the editorial is specious in several critical respects.
      First of all, the editorial provides no evidence that the report on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. Since the report was from local hunters, it is entirely possible that they drew the conclusion on the mere basis of the number of arctic deer they hunt. However, this did little to testify the decline in the overall population of this kind of deer. Perhaps arctic deer change their life style for some environmental reasons.（我个人觉得，前面既然说可能是由于猎人仅仅基于打猎到的数量来判断总数量，后面似乎应该针对此攻击，这个他因不如下面的逻辑紧密） And the hunters' hunting ability can also affect the number they hunt. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot rely on the report to conclude that the population of arctic deer has declined.
      Secondly, the author hastily assumes that Canada's arctic region where arctic deer live is warmer than before because of the recent global warming trends. However, this could not be the case. For all we know the climate in every geographic part of the world could be affected by various factors. For that matter, perhaps Canada's arctic region is colder than before despite the global warming trends. Since the author provide(provides) no information about the temperature in this particular region, I simply cannot be convinced that the region where arctic deer live becomes warmer.（这一段是否应该最终扯到导致冰面融化上呢？）
      Finally, even the author can substantiate all the foregoing assumptions, I remain unconvinced that the warmer climate in Canada's arctic region is the unique reason for the decline in arctic deer population.（其实原文的结论是鹿不能迁徙所以数量下降了） For example, this decline can be caused by factors such as over-hunting, changes of their living environment, sharp decrease in their regular food, to name just a few. Without taking account of such possibilities, the author cannot convince me that it is the change of climate caused the deaths of arctic deer.
      In sum, the argument is neither sound nor persuasive. Not only does it leave(leaves) out key issues, but also cites in the analysis the evidence, which does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims. To strengthen it, the author would have to provide clear information about the overall population of arctic deer, and the temperature statistics of Canada's arctic region as well. To better assess the argument, I would need to know all the possible factors that can affect the life styles of arctic deer and therefore cause their deaths. If the argument includes the above-mentioned factors, it would have been more thorough and adequate.

还有标题写错了 不是145 :)

[ 本帖最后由 abzero 于 2007-8-19 10:09 编辑 ]