argument2 [kb911]第5次作业

WHSYINGUID: 2310541

TOPIC: ARGUMENT51 - The following appeared in a medical newsletter.

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."
WORDS: 426          TIME: 00:29:19          DATE: 2007-8-18 1:08:20

The author claims that all patients who are diagnosed with muscle stain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment. To support the claim, the author cites several evidences such as the results of a study of two groups of patients. However, the recommendation relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions, which makes it unconvincing as it stands.
First of all, the author provides no assurances that the study on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. Lacking information about the number and the healthy situation such as age and gender of the patients studied, it is impossible to assess the validity of the results. For example, if there are just 3 patients are studied and the recuperation time of two patients is quick, the conclusion will be highly suspected. Another problem is the representativeness of the patients. Were they representative of all the patients who are diagnosed with muscle stain? Were they chosen randomly or did they volunteer for the studied? The author gives no evidence that the answer is yes, without such evidence the author cannot draw any firm conclusion based on the study.
In the second place, the author get hasty conclusion and overlooks there is an obvious difference between the two groups. The doctor of the first group is specializes in sports medicine, however, the second group's doctor is a general physician. We have sufficient reasons to suspect the conclusion. It is high possible that the two group take different exercise, perhaps it is just the main reason why the recuperation time is different between the two groups, perhaps the two doctor do not use the same drug to treat the patients, which makes the patients have different recuperation time.
Finally, even if the result of the study is reliable, it never means that all the patients should take the drug. Maybe some patients are allergy to the antibiotics, and maybe there is another better way to recover such as doing exercise every day. Without ruling out these and other possible factors, the author cannot confidently conclude the all the patients should take antibiotics.
In conclusion, the recommendation that all the patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment is not well supported. To strengthen the argument, the author should provide statistical evidence that the result of the study is reliable. To better evaluate the recommendation, I would need more information that whether there is a better way to treat the patients with muscle strain.