argument65 [kb9.11] 第8次作业

prophetluoUID: 2240098

The conclusion that to discontinue stockingmany of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domesticcheeses would improve profits in all of the arguer's stores seems at a firstglance to be convinced notion. To support the conclusion the arguer points thatfive best-selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic cheddarcheeses from Wisconsin.In addition, a evidence that a recent survey by Cheese of the World magazineindicated an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers.A careful examination of the argument would reveal how groundless theconclusion is.

In the first place, more evidence should begiven to ensure the best-selling position of domestic cheeses in all thestores. The arguer merely present an evidence that the domestic cheddar cheeseswere sold good only in the newest shores, so it is unwarranted to assume thatthose cheeses will be popular in all stores. Firstly , any further conjecturecould be made until the arguer provide the total amount of their stores. Ifthey keeps nearly 10000 shores in the whole nation and the new shore were only5 , so the fact that the five best-selling cheeses at their newest shore doesnot  justify the notion. Secondly, theselling condition of domestic cheddar in the newest shores does not necessarilyimply that it would be  the same in allshores. Thirdly, the comparison of the selling amount of the new stores betweenthe old ones should be supplied in order to lend strong support of the presume,because if the domestic cheese sold in the new stores were 1 per day comparingto the imported cheese sold in the old ones were 1000 per day, the notionshould not be settled.
In the second place, the survey suffer fromseveral fatal fallacies. Firstly, the increasing preference for domesticcheeses is too vague to be informative. If the increase amount is 0.1% in every1000 persons, the survey can not lend strong support of the conclusion.Secondly, the accurate number of the subscribers were needed to justify the validityof the survey, in other words the authority of the magazine is dubitable. Moreevidence that whether the amount of the subscribers is sufficient to bestatistically reliable and whether the subscribers forms of the enthusiast  of the cheeses should be presented to supportthe conclusion drawn from it. Thirdly, the active regions of the magazine mustbe pointed out ,in order to ensure that the subscribers were  random samples in the survey.

In sum , the conclusion lacks credibilitybecause the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to whatthe arguer maintains. To strength the argument , the arguer would have toprovide more evidence concerning all stores information in the whole notion andthe details of the magazine.

goldzincUID: 2378390

The conclusion that to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses would improve profits in all of the arguer's stores seems at a first glance to be convinced notion. To support the conclusion the arguer points that five best-selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. In addition, an evidence that a recent survey by Cheese of the World magazine indicated an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. A careful examination of the argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

In the first place, more evidence should be given to ensure the best-selling position of domestic cheeses in all the stores.(第一句主题句应该是指出问题的，而不是提出改进的) The arguer merely present an evidence that the domestic cheddar cheeses were sold good only in the newest shores, so it is unwarranted to assume that those cheeses will be popular in all stores. Firstly, any further conjecture could be made until the arguer provides the total amount of their stores. If they keeps nearly 10000 stores in the whole nation and the (number of the) new store were(is) only 5, so the fact that the five best-selling cheeses at their newest shore does not justify the notion. Secondly, the selling condition of domestic cheddar in the newest shores does not necessarily imply that it would be the same in all stores. Thirdly, the comparison of the selling amount of the new stores between the old ones should be supplied in order to lend strong support of the presume, because if the domestic cheese sold in the new stores were 1 per day comparing to the imported cheese sold in the old ones were 1000 per day, the notion should not be settled.
In the second place, the survey suffers from several fatal fallacies. Firstly, the increasing preference for domestic cheeses is too vague to be informative. If the increase amount is 0.1% in every1000 persons, the survey cannot lend strong support of the conclusion. Secondly, the accurate number of the subscribers were needed to justify the validity of the survey, in other words the authority of the magazine is dubitable. More evidence that whether the amount of the subscribers is sufficient to be statistically reliable and whether the subscribers’ forms of the enthusiast of the cheeses should be presented to support the conclusion drawn from it. Thirdly, the active regions of the magazine must be pointed out, in order to ensure that the subscribers were random samples in the survey.

In sum, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strength the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning all stores information in the whole notion and the details of the magazine.

整体来讲不错，对那两个错误分析的非常详细，但是应该再提一下那个减少库存成本不一定必然增加利润的错误。