argument147 [0806G-desperado小组]第一次作业by 绿松石

绿松石UID: 2427549

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

outline:1.survey类错误，样本数量，样本背景
          2.即使调查is reliable精细图象得游戏很受欢迎，但是也有可能其他原因导致顾客不购买
          3.做了广告不一定就能吸引到观众

Based on a recent survey of video-game players, the editorial in a business magazine preidicts that the sales of Whirlwind video games is about to rise despite of the declined situation over the past two years. To bolster this prediction, the editorial points out that the survey revealed a preference for games with realistic graphics requiring state-of-the art computers. Furthermore,the editorial cites the fact that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games, along with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at people 10-25 years old--who the editorial assumed are the demographic group most likely to play video games.Careful examination of this supporting evidence, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the editorial's claim.

First of all, the editorial provides no information about the number of respondents or their profile. The fewer repondents, the less reliable the survey's results. Also, the narrower the spectrum of age and occupation and geographic areas represented among respondents, the more likely that the results of survey is misleading.Unless the survey's respondents are representative of the overall populations of videogame enthusiasts, the editorial cannot rely on it to analysis  the sales trend of Whirlwind's new games.

Even if the survey is statistically reliable to conclude that recent players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, the Whirlwin's new game might still not be welcomed. For the editorial overlooks other factors during the process of purchase. Perhaps, the customers are more likely to choose those older and more favorable brands, or perhaps games produced by other company are relatively cheap. Without considering and eliminating these and other possible alternative factors that might influence the sale trend, the editorial cannot convincingly conclude such results.

Secondly,the argument assumes too hastily that with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people10-25 years ole will necessarily result in the behavior that the editorial predicts. Perhaps,the advertisement is not so attractive that few people whould like to try this new game. Since the editorial has not dearly identified the effect of the advertising, I cannnot be convinced that Whirlwind's new strategy will reverse the decline.

To sum up, the editorial fails to substantiate his claim that Whirlwind's new game will reverse the sales decline, because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the editorial maintains.  To strengthen the argument could have to demonstrate that the result of survey is necessarily reliable and responsible. In addition, the editorial has to provide more information with regard to the epitite of game consumer. Therefore, if the statement had included the given factors mentioned above, the argument would have become more thorough and logically acceptable.

[ 本帖最后由 绿松石 于 2007-12-8 17:19 编辑 ]

hdofrucUID: 2434623

Based on a recent survey of video-game players, the editorial in a business magazine preidicts that the sales of Whirlwind video games is about to rise despite of the declined situation over the past two years.（这句挺好的）To bolster this prediction, the editorial points out that the survey revealed a preference for games with realistic graphics requiring state-of-the art computers. Furthermore, the editorial cites the fact that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games, along with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at people 10-25 years old--who the editorial assumed are the demographic group most likely to play video games. Careful examination of this supporting evidence, however, reveals that it lends（这个词？） little credible support to the editorial's claim.（个人感觉第一段稍微长了一点，记得北美范文里边说开头不要过多地重新叙述原题的意思，人家不关心这个能力）

First of all, the editorial provides no information about the number of respondents or their profile. The fewer repondents（拼写错误，可以在word里面自动词汇和语法检查出来）（participate in）, the less reliable the survey's results (are). Also, the narrower the spectrum of age and occupation and geographic areas represented among respondents, the more likely that the results of survey is misleading (will mislead the decision making). Unless the survey's respondents are representative of the overall populations of videogame enthusiasts, the editorial cannot rely on it to analysis the sales trend of Whirlwind's new games.（怎么说呢，参与调查者数量这个问题我知道北美范文里是用了，但这个如果成立的话那岂不是所有涉及到调查的argument都可以这样写了？当然，这属于个人意见，仅供参考）

Even if the survey is statistically reliable to conclude that recent players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, the Whirlwind's new game might still not be welcomed. For the editorial overlooks other factors during the process of purchase. Perhaps, the customers are more likely to choose those older and more favorable brands(这个例子好，我没想到，还可以再加强一下，加上消费惯性的说法), or perhaps games produced by other company are relatively cheap. Without considering and eliminating these and other possible alternative factors that might influence the sale trend, the editorial cannot convincingly conclude such results.（游戏的趣味性是不是也可以在这一段提一下，我觉得会比较有说服力）

Secondly, the argument assumes too hastily that with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people10-25 years old will necessarily result in the behavior(result in the behavior这个感觉没必要这么说，还不如说清楚点) that the editorial predicts. Perhaps, the advertisement is not so attractive that few people whould like to try this new game. Since the editorial has not dearly identified the effect of the advertising, I can not be convinced that Whirlwind's new strategy will reverse the decline.

To sum up, the editorial fails to substantiate his claim that Whirlwind's new game will reverse the sales decline, because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the editorial maintains.  To strengthen the argument could have to demonstrate that the result of survey is necessarily reliable and responsible. In addition, the editorial has to provide more information with regard to the epitite（这个是？） of game consumer. Therefore, if the statement had included the given factors mentioned above, the argument would have become more thorough and logically acceptable.

wangyu0920UID: 199396

outline:1.survey类错误，样本数量，样本背景
          2.即使调查is reliable精细图象得游戏很受欢迎，但是也有可能其他原因导致顾客不购买
          3.做了广告不一定就能吸引到观众

Based on a recent survey of video-game players, the editorial in a business magazine preidicts that the sales of Whirlwind video games is about to rise despite of the declined situation over the past two years. To bolster this prediction, the editorial points out that the survey revealed a preference for games with realistic graphics requiring state-of-the art computers. Furthermore,the editorial cites the fact that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games, along with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at people 10-25 years old--who the editorial assumed are the demographic group most likely to play video games.（我喜欢这几句）Careful examination of this supporting evidence, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the editorial's claim.

First of all, the editorial provides no information about the number of respondents or their profile. The fewer repondents, the less reliable the survey's results. Also, the narrower the spectrum of age and occupation and geographic areas represented among respondents, the more likely that the results of survey is misleading.Unless the survey's respondents are representative of the overall populations of videogame enthusiasts, the editorial cannot rely on it to analysis （analyze） the sales trend of Whirlwind's new games.

Even if the survey is statistically reliable to conclude that recent players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, the Whirlwin's new game might still not be welcomed. For the editorial overlooks other factors during the process of purchase. Perhaps, the customers are more likely to choose those older and more favorable brands, or perhaps games produced by other company are relatively cheap. Without considering and eliminating these and other possible alternative factors that might influence the sale trend, the editorial cannot convincingly conclude such results.(这个也好)

Secondly,the argument assumes too hastily that with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people10-25 years ole will necessarily result in the behavior that the editorial predicts. Perhaps,the advertisement is not so attractive that few people whould like to try this new game. Since the editorial has not dearly identified the effect of the advertising, I cannnot be convinced that Whirlwind's new strategy will reverse the decline.

To sum up, the editorial fails to substantiate his claim that Whirlwind's new game will reverse the sales decline, because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the editorial maintains.  To strengthen the argument could have to demonstrate that the result of survey is necessarily reliable and responsible. In addition, the editorial has to provide more information with regard to the epitite of game consumer. Therefore, if the statement had included the given factors mentioned above, the argument would have become more thorough and logically acceptable.

除了拼写错误有几处，我觉得已经很好了！

[ 本帖最后由 wangyu0920 于 2007-12-14 23:18 编辑 ]