Argument15【Aero小组】第2次作业

houyanchunUID: 2432949

ARGUMENT 15The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their in take of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stock holders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."

In this argument, the author claims that old diary stock holders should sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock of the company. To support his claim, the author offers that a recent survey indicated that over 80 percent of the respondents desire to reduce their in take of foods containing fats and cholesterol. Moreover, the authors assume that the company's sales would like to diminish greatly and their profits decrease. These evidences seems credible at first sight, but after carefully consideration, they reveals several deficiency in the argument.

First of all, sample for the respondents should be statistically reliable. But the author could not provide relative explanation to validate this point. It is very possible that those respondents in the survey are not enough to present the overall situation whether most customs incline to reduce fat including in their food. On the other hand, the respondents are a small part of customs who may be very careful their health while others prefer to take more fat and cholesterol food in their daily life. Additionally, the author could not tell us how many people have participated in this survey so that the claim "over 80 percent" are not support the conclusion if the total number of respondents is few compared to whole dweller at the place. In sum, the author can not provide credible evidence to convince us that most of customs could reduce taking high fat food in dairy life.

Secondly, the author fails to establish a causal relation between the fact that some customs would reduce taking in high fat and cholesterol food and those companies who produce those are likely to diminish greatly and their profits would decrease certainly. It is entire possible that those companies are adapting the changing trend of customs taste by offering new production with low fat. Or those companies own relative stable customs who always purchase their production though the food is abundance in fat. For that matter, the conclusion can not stand obviously. As we known, whether the company would benefit is determined by many reasons such as the relation between demand and supply, economic policy and so forth. In addition, the benefit is related with the investment and attainment directly. The author fails to provide convinced evidences to indicate the relation whether income is more than investment for producing low fat food. Without ruling out these possibilities, it is too illogical to assert that old dairy industries are likely to diminish greatly so that their profits would decrease.

Finally, even though most of customs would tend to transform their structure of having, there are many alternative for them rather than only one which it low fat and cholesterol. Without consider other alterative, the conclusion is a few abruptly.

In order to convince us to accept the conclusion, the arguer could provide more evidences that there is indeed a causal relation between the changed taste of customs and the decrease of the sale for old diary industries. It would be further improved by pointing out the sampling is random and the sampling is sufficient to representative of the overall customs' opinion.

m2zhyUID: 2440721

In this argument, the author claims that old diary （名称应该大写噢）stock holders should sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock of the company. To support his claim, the author offers that a recent survey indicated that over 80 percent of the respondents desire to reduce their in take of foods containing fats and cholesterol. Moreover, the authors assume that the company's sales would like to diminish greatly and their profits decrease. These evidences seems credible at first sight, but after carefully consideration, they reveals several deficiency in the argument. （首段论点提出的非常好，明确，清晰。赞！）  

First of all, sample for the respondents should be statistically reliable. But the author could not provide relative explanation to validate this point. It is very possible that those respondents in the survey are not enough to present the overall situation whether most customs incline to reduce fat including in their food. On the other hand, the respondents are a small part of customs who may be very careful their health while others prefer to take more fat and cholesterol food in their daily life. Additionally, the author could not tell us how many people have participated in this survey so that the claim "over 80 percent" are not support the conclusion if the total number of respondents is few compared to whole dweller at the place. In sum, the author can not provide credible evidence to convince us that most of customs could reduce taking high fat food in dairy life.  （攻击点找的很准噢~）

Secondly, the author fails to establish a causal relation between the fact that some customs would reduce taking in high fat and cholesterol food and those companies who produce those are likely to diminish greatly and their profits would decrease certainly. It is entire possible that those companies are adapting the changing trend of customs taste by offering new production with low fat. Or those companies own relative stable customs who always purchase their production though the food is abundance in fat. For that matter, the conclusion can not stand obviously. As we known, whether the company would benefit is determined by many reasons such as the relation between demand and supply, economic policy and so forth. In addition, the benefit is related with the investment and attainment directly. The author fails to provide convinced evidences to indicate the relation whether income is more than investment for producing low fat food. Without ruling out these possibilities, it is too illogical to assert that old dairy industries are likely to diminish greatly so that their profits would decrease.  （本段内容丰富，提出了很多的可能性，很全面。赞！）

Finally, even though most of customs would tend to transform their structure of having, there are many alternative for them rather than only one which it low fat and cholesterol. Without consider other alterative, the conclusion is a few abruptly.   （这段有点太简单了，是不是应该有个such as语句简单列举一些可选择的方面呢？）

In order to convince us to accept the conclusion, the arguer could provide more evidences that there is indeed a causal relation between the changed taste of customs and the decrease of the sale for old diary industries. It would be further improved by pointing out the sampling is random and the sampling is sufficient to representative of the overall customs' opinion.  （结尾段也不错，但相对首段来讲，有点虎头蛇尾的感觉。建议楼主再考虑考虑~）

总评：
写得不错哦~ 值得学习，呵呵，你的那篇issue更是厉害哦~
    另外，别忘了，名称首字母要大写噢~ 楼主疏忽了哦~

附：关于argument，本人就没做太多句子的分析，主要从逻辑上分析。有关句子分析，主要是在Issue里做详细分析。我在Issue里的句子分析应该不会让楼主失望的吧~



[ 本帖最后由 m2zhy 于 2007-12-22 22:24 编辑 ]

wizardzUID: 2268761

In this argument, the author claims that old diary stock holders should sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock of the company. To support his claim, the author offers that a recent survey indicated indicating that over 80 percent of the respondents desire to reduce their in take of foods containing fats and cholesterol. Moreover, the authors assume that the company's sales would like are likely to diminish greatly and their profits decrease. These evidences seems credible at first sight, but after carefully careful consideration, they reveals several deficiency in the argument.

First of all, sample for the respondents should be statistically reliable. But the author could not provide relative explanation to validate this point. It is very possible that those respondents in the survey are not enough to present the overall situation whether most customs customers incline to reduce fat including in their food. On the other hand, the respondents are a small part of customs who may be very careful careful about their health while many others prefer to take more fat and cholesterol food in their daily life. Additionally, the author could not tell us how many people have participated in this survey so that the claim "over 80 percent" are not support the conclusion if the total number of respondents is few compared to whole dweller at the place. In sum, the author can not provide credible evidence to convince us that most of customs could reduce taking high fat food in dairy life.

Secondly, the author fails to establish a causal relation between the fact that some customs would reduce taking in high fat and cholesterol food and that those companies who produce those are likely to diminish greatly and their profits would decrease certainly. It is entire possible that those companies are adapting to the changing trend of customs taste by offering new production products with low fat. Or those companies own relative stable customs who always purchase their production though the food is abundance in fat. For that matter, the conclusion can not stand obviously. As we known, whether the company would benefit is determined by many reasons factors such as the relation between demand and supply, economic policy and so forth. In addition, the benefit is related with the investment and attainment directly. The author fails to provide convinced evidences to indicate the relation whether income is more than investment for producing low fat food. Without ruling out these possibilities, it is too illogical to assert that old dairy industries are likely to diminish greatly so that their profits would decrease.

Finally, even though most of customs would tend to transform their structure of having diet, there are many alternatives for them rather than only one which it low fat and cholesterol. Without consider other alterative, the conclusion is a few abruptly.

In order to convince us to accept in accepting the conclusion, the arguer could provide more evidences that there is indeed a causal relation between the changed taste of customs and the decrease of the sale for old diary industries. It would be further improved by pointing out the sampling is random and the sampling is sufficient to representative of the overall customs' opinion.

我想再补充一条意见，关于统计的真实性的批判，似乎很多材料都能写，但建议如果找到了其他更明显的缺陷，攻击统计可以略微提一下就行了，不用单独作为一大段，不知同意否。