Argument45【0806G desperado小组】第十三次作业by坐照

wangyu0920UID: 199396

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 427         DATE: 2007-12-22 1:35:52

1.         鹿群数量未必减少，猎人的报告不可信
2.         全球变暖未必会导致鹿群数量减少
3.         全球变暖未必是唯一的因素，还有其他因素可能导致减少，因此不能说是迁徙方式导致数量减少

In this argument, the arguer asserts that the population of the arctic deer is declining because they are unable to follow their age-old migration patterns. To support the claim, the arguer assumes that it is the global warming which has caused the sea ice to melt that lead to a decline of the deer population. However, I find the evidence is insufficient and hence does not lend solid support to what the arguer assumes.

To begin with, the reports from the local hunters lack credibility that we can not accept the arguer's conclusion that the population of the deer is declining. Common sense tells us that local hunters estimate the numbers of the deer just by experience rather than by scientific survey method. It is probably because they could not hunt as many deer as before that leads them reaching the result. Nevertheless, perhaps the total amount of the deer does not reduce; the reason why they hunt less deer is because the deer migrate to other places, far from where they used to live that the hunters are not easy to trace them.

Moreover, even though the population of the deer is declining, there is no evidence to support any causal relationship between global warming and the decrease of deer population. First, no study shows that ice melting happens in the areas where the deer habitat. Second, even the weather gets warmer, it is still entirely possible cold enough for ice to cover the sea separating the islands. Thirdly, perhaps the warmer climate provide more plants on which the deer feed that they do not have to move over ice from island to island.

Finally, even the global warming trends can reduce the numbers of the deer, the arguer fails to consider and rule out that other factors might account for decrease in deer population. It is entirely possible that human activities that destroyed their living environment which is not suitable for their survival any more. Any conclusion about the migration patterns is questionable because there is no evidence whatsoever to indicate that the global warming is solely reason for the decrease of deer population.

In conclusion, the argument is the argument is not well supported as it stands. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to provide more evidence that (1) further scientific reliable study to prove that the population of the deer is indeed declining (2) the global warming trend can truly lead to a decrease of deer population (3) there is no other factors that contributes to the decline of deer population

[ 本帖最后由 wangyu0920 于 2007-12-22 21:27 编辑 ]

hongdanUID: 2228730

这样把argu分析地透一些很好，我觉得argu还是把错误分析透一些好。