- 最后登录
- 2011-4-16
- 在线时间
- 8 小时
- 寄托币
- 439
- 声望
- 2
- 注册时间
- 2007-8-14
- 阅读权限
- 15
- 帖子
- 1
- 精华
- 0
- 积分
- 296
- UID
- 2382427

- 声望
- 2
- 寄托币
- 439
- 注册时间
- 2007-8-14
- 精华
- 0
- 帖子
- 1
|
发表于 2008-1-24 18:52:31
|显示全部楼层
In this argument, the author concluded thatthe cooling in the mid-sixth century was probably by a volcanic eruption. At first glace, it seems reasonable. And to support this point, the author takes two factors that are huge volcanic eruption and large meteorite collision as the origin, some historical recording to come to the conclusion. However, a couple of obvious fallacy and obscure factor, which may lead to a premature notion, has been not suppose to be overlooked before that.
First of all, since the arguer has spoke that few historical records survive from that time, the survey fails to convince me that the fallen temperature is such a rife phenomenon according to the limited recording. In addition, by citing on the whole, some evidence from the areas can not indicates the dimming of sun and cold tempreture reveals the changing of the global sphere.
Secondly, the arguer hastily gains to the point that either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding created a large dust cloud that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower temperature. Obviously, the earth’s atmosphere is a result of interplaying among many comprehensive factor. So, apart from volcanic eruption and meteorite colliding, there are rather untold factor leading to the changing of the earth’s atmosphere. If the a great thick foggy covers a big area, the temperature may changes as the result of the above two factor.
Finally, the arguer unfairly exclude the first cause, meteorite colliding, for the absence of the relative recording. Considering that if the colliding did not create any flash, or the flash was missed by the observer for some reasons, any exclusion must be doubtful and need to be review. On the other hand, the loudness in the history may have nothing to do with the volcanic eruption. As far as I know, the earthquake caused by the volcanic eruption also can make the same loud bloom.
In the conclusion, the argument fail to convince me that the cooling in the history was probably by a volcanic eruption. Without considering the fallacy in the survey, we may be cheated by the superficial conduct. After all ,a great deal of complicated factor lead to a simple .If we are masked by the superficiality, we will fall in the pitfall unconsciously. |
|