Argument45[Jet小组]第三次作业

zhxj1985UID: 2353169

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 476          TIME: 00:55:56         

The argument concludes that the populations of the arctic deer in Canada's arctic region are declining based on the global warming trends. However, the author fails to offer any evidence to substantiate this conclusion. Absent such evidence, I strongly disagree with the statement that the author argues, as list below.

Firstly, there aren't any columns of data offered by the author that the temperature of this region is authentically ascending. As this is an important previous condition for the arguer to get the conclusion, I strongly concern with this. On the other hand, given some concession, suppose that the temperature of this region be ascended actually, the author fails to give how much is the temperature ascended either, does it rise enough to cause the sea ice in this region to melt? In short, without any columns of data, we can't conclude that the temperature in this region is rising either coinciding with the worldwide global warming which might be caused by the obvious temperature ascending of some certain regions except that of Canada's arctic region.

Secondly, it can't be concluded that the populations of deer in this region is declining just according to the reports from local hunters. Deer in this area tend to be more difficult to be hunted does not mean that the populations of them are decreasing. It could be that they are living well in some big islands where local hunters never reached before, and the plants there are more arborous too. So a much wider scope of survey should be conducted before any conclusion is made.

In final, it is unreasonable for the author to get the conclusion that there is a relationship between the deer populations decline and the temperature ascending as given above that warm of this area is good for the plants on which they feed. In addition, does the author want to conceal something to get the conclusion that the decline in arctic deer populations is only the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea without thinking about any other alternatives, which may include that the aggravating of the circumstance in this region, the over-hunting by local hunters and the influence of the changes of living methods of the native, etc.

In sum, as no relative reasons were offered by the arguer, it is unreasonable for the conclusion that it is the global warming which caused the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea that leads to the decline in artic deer populations of this region. Before any conclusion were made, evidence should be offered by the author such as the current data of temperature comparing to the one before, exact populations of deer surveyed in a wider extension of the whole area and the nearby circumstance in this region.

[ 本帖最后由 zhxj1985 于 2008-2-23 17:19 编辑 ]