Argument147[Aero小组第12次作业]

ragingfireUID: 186932

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 442          TIME: 00:34:53          DATE: 2008-2-10 22:54:53

    The editorial concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are about to increase dramatically in the next few months after a two years' decline. To justify the conclusion, the editorial's author cites a recent survey in which video-game players indicated a preference of games that provide lifelike graphics requiring the most up-to-date computers. The author then points out that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games, along with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at people 10 to 25 years old. I find this argument specious on several grounds.

    First, the argument relies on the key assumption that the two-year decline in Whirlwind's sales is attributable to the problem which the introduction of new games and advertising campaign will solve. Yet this need not be the fact. Perhaps the decline was due to some other factors such as imprudent pricing and distribution strategies. For example, maybe the games of Whirlwind are prohibitively expensive for game players to afford, or maybe players of many areas cannot have easy accesses to the copies. In fact, perhaps it is the same agency that is responsible for the poor management, and the same ad company that run the advertising campaign for the new games, and these problems are not remedied.  Since the author has not clearly identified the causes of the decline, I cannot be convinced that the sales of Whirlwind will increase dramatically.

Secondly, the author provides no assurance that the survey which the argument relies on is statistically reliable.  Unless the survey's respondents are representatives of the overall populations of the video game players, the author cannot rely on it to predict the success in sales of Whirlwind. And perhaps there is a significant percentage of respondents who are not of the age between 10 to 25. Further more, the number of this age group perhaps is too low to ensure that these 10-25 old players are the largest demographic group of video games enthusiast.

    Thirdly, even if the ad campaign successfully attracts the video players of 10 to 25 years old, the sales of Whirlwind may still be low. Perhaps the price of these games is too expensive for the key demographic group. Or perhaps the competitors of Whirlwind provide the same or better graphics than Whirlwind and add some additional features which render them more attractive. Unless the author can rule out these possibilities, I cannot be swayed by the prediction that Whirlwind is about to experience a dramatically rise in sales.

    To sum up, the author needs to substantiate all the assumptions which are groundless, and rules out all the possibilities. If not, the argument is unconvincing as it stands.

beetle1986UID: 2431214

The editorial concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are about to increase dramatically in the next few months after a two years' decline. To justify the conclusion, the editorial's author cites a recent survey in which video-game players indicated a preference of games that provide lifelike graphics requiring the most up-to-date computers. The author then points out that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games, along with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at people 10 to 25 years old. I find this argument specious on several grounds.

    First, the argument relies on the key assumption that the two-year decline in Whirlwind's sales is attributable to the problem which the introduction of new games and advertising campaign will solve. Yet this need not be the fact. Perhaps the decline was due to some other factors such as imprudent pricing and distribution strategies. For example, maybe the games of Whirlwind are prohibitively expensive for game players to afford, or maybe players of many areas cannot have easy accesses to the copies. In fact, perhaps it is the same agency that is responsible for the poor management, and the same ad company that run the advertising campaign for the new games, and these problems are not remedied.  Since the author has not clearly identified the causes of the decline, I cannot be convinced that the sales of Whirlwind will increase dramatically.

Secondly, the author provides no assurance that the survey which the argument relies on is statistically reliable.  Unless the survey's respondents are representatives of the overall populations of the video game players, the author cannot rely on it to predict the success in sales of Whirlwind. And perhaps there are a significant percentage of respondents who are not of the age between 10 to(and) 25. Furthermore, the number of this age group perhaps is too low to ensure that these 10-25 old players are the largest demographic group of video games enthusiast.

    Thirdly, even if the ad campaign successfully attracts the video players of 10 to 25 years old, the sales of Whirlwind may still be low. Perhaps the price of these games is too expensive for the key demographic group. Or perhaps the competitors of Whirlwind provide the same or better graphics than Whirlwind and add some additional features which render them more attractive. Unless the author can rule out these possibilities, I cannot be swayed by the prediction that Whirlwind is about to experience a dramatically rise in sales.

    To sum up, the author needs to substantiate all the assumptions which are groundless, and rules out all the possibilities. If not, the argument is unconvincing as it stands.
结构和语言都比较好，我只有欣赏的份了。唯一不足的是结尾短了点。可以一上去先打提纲，再丰富内容。写不完比论证不充分要严重得多

cacipolarUID: 2186882

The editorial concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are about to increase dramatically in the next few months after a two years' decline. To justify the conclusion, the editorial's author cites a recent survey in which video-game players indicated a preference of games that provide lifelike graphics requiring the most up-to-date computers. The author then points out that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games, along with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at people 10 to 25 years old. I find this argument specious on several grounds.

    First, the argument relies on the key assumption that the two-year decline in Whirlwind's sales is attributable to the problem which the introduction of new games and advertising campaign will solve. Yet this need not be the fact. Perhaps the decline was due to some other factors such as imprudent pricing and distribution strategies. For example, maybe the games of Whirlwind are prohibitively expensive for game players to afford, or maybe players of many areas cannot have easy accesses to the copies. In fact, perhaps it is the same agency that is responsible for the poor management, and the same ad company that run the advertising campaign for the new games, and these problems are not remedied.  Since the author has not clearly identified the causes of the decline, I cannot be convinced that the sales of Whirlwind will increase dramatically.

Secondly, the author provides no assurance that the survey which the argument relies on is statistically reliable.  Unless the survey's respondents are representatives of the overall populations of the video game players, the author cannot rely on it to predict the success in sales of Whirlwind. And perhaps there is a significant percentage of respondents who are not of the age between 10 to 25. Further more, the number of this age group perhaps is too low to ensure that these 10-25 old players are the largest demographic group of video games enthusiast.

    Thirdly, even if the ad campaign successfully attracts the video players of 10 to 25 years old, the sales of Whirlwind may still be low. Perhaps the price of these games is too expensive for the key demographic group. Or perhaps the competitors of Whirlwind provide the same or better graphics than Whirlwind and add some additional features which render them more attractive. Unless the author can rule out these possibilities, I cannot be swayed by the prediction that Whirlwind is about to experience a dramatically rise in sales.

    To sum up, the author needs to substantiate all the assumptions which are groundless, and rules out all the possibilities. If not, the argument is unconvincing as it stands.
语言真实没的说了，不知道楼主是怎练出来的，分析很深入，结尾要是再加一下需要提供的信息就是完美的了。