argument65【Jet小组】第七次作业

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Argument 65  The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

WORDS:430  TIME:40min  DATE:16/02/2008

The president asserts that  to discontinue stocking of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses will contribute to improve profits. At first glance, this opinion seems to be somewhat convincing, but further reflection tells me that I cannot agree with it for the following reasons.

To begin with, the president make a non-sequitur mistake - precondition of the final conclusion may not exist. Improving profits is not equal to discontinuing stocking of imported cheeses. Information about the sale condition of domestic cheeses and the preference of general customers are not available. Hence, the reasoning result can not exit safely.

Besides, there misses evidence in proving the bad sale condition of imported cheeses. The president draw the conclusion from the sale condition of the newest stores, which may actually take on marketing methods to specially improve the sale of cheeses made in Wisconsin. In fact, there exit many possible problems. Firstly, the store may near Wisconsin or the relationship between the local people and Wisconsin is close; Secondly, that domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin is best-selling does not necessarily mean that the profits from it is the highest or at least high, for they may be sold all in rather low prices; Thirdly, the sale condition of just newest stores cannot represent the whole company; Last but not least, condition in the past can never predict that in the future.

Furthermore, unclear procedure of survey is appeared in the origin text. Is it a random sampling? Is the base number large enough? How many people and what kind of people read the magazine? Among them, how many people take part in the survey? Suppose that most of the reader are professional cheese producers, or most readers fond of imported cheeses refuse to send back the survey forms, how can the result of the survey be persuasive? What's more, it at most represents the opinions of cheese customers who order that magazine, so why should we neglect those of costumers who don't order it?

In addition, the president seems easily to get a hasty conclusion - "the best way". There may still exist many other effective methods, some among which is possible to be better than the so-called "best way".

In sum, the president's claim is not convincing as it stands. To make it logically acceptable, he/she would have to show stronger evidence in proving the bad sale condition of imported cheeses. Additionally, the president must provide clearer survey procedure and avoid other problems mentioned above Only with more convincing evidence could this argument become more than just an emotional appeal.   

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