Argument71--Thrive小组第8次作业，第一次限到规定的30分钟..

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT71 - Copper occurs in nature mixed with other minerals and valuable metals in ore, and the proportion of copper in the ore can vary considerably. Until fairly recently, the only way to extract pure copper from ore was by using a process that requires large amounts of electric energy, especially if the proportion of copper in the ore is low. New copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity than the older method to process the same amount of raw ore, especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Therefore, we can expect the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly.
WORDS: 335          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2/18/2008 22:38:07

In this argument, the author expects that the amount of electricity used by the cooper-extraction industry will decline significantly. The deduction seems reasonable at first glance; however, the argument suffers from several critical fallacies and logical faults.

The first thing that I want to point out is that the arguer does not provide a complete comparison between the former cooper-extracting technologies and the now one. No persuasive information was given to support that the new method will cost less no matter how the proportion of copper in the ore changes. It is possible that even the new method can save 40 percent electricity if the proportion is high, when dealing with low-proportion copper ore, this new method will consume a lot more electricity. For the above reason, the author's assumption that new method will surely save electricity is open to doubt.

Turning to the next, even the author could demonstrate the above assumption, he simply did not eliminate possible alternatives that will affect the total electricity consumption in the copper-extraction industry. For instance, maybe in the near future the production of copper will increase significantly, so even the energy consumption per kilo copper was declined, the overall consumption will still increase. Moreover, maybe the nationwide average copper proportion will be lowered, still, weather the electricity amount will increase or decrease is not determined. Without such information, no one could give a certain answer to the issue.

The last but not the least, the author assertion that the new technology will be used widely soon is unwarranted. The technology could be very expensive so that very little factory will use; or this kind of method is not suitable for the type of ore in the nation; or simply the new technology need to be tested more to assure its safety.

In a nutshell, without providing complete information about the circumstances in copper-extraction industry and the difference between the two technologies, the conclusion that the electricity used by this industry will decline significantly is weakened.


其实30分钟可以弄得更好的，可是在批最后一个观点的时候，完全没有了思路....