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TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
提纲:1 将新店和本店进行了错误类比;
2 调查回应者是否有代表性;
3 忽略了其他能够盈利的因素。
The arguer' s assertion that the best way to enhance profits in stores is to stop stocking large amounts of imported cheese and concentrate mainly on domestic cheeses, is primarily based on the top five cheeses index last year and a survey held by a magazine. However, without more persuasive evidence, the arguer's hasty decision is likely to mask potential selling problems and result in losing large amounts of order forms.
A threshold problem involved in this argument is that the arguer’s assertion is based on a false analogy. The arguer claimed because the best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic, our stores should also stock only domestic cheeses. Without comprehensive information about the newest store, the arguer cannot be quickly decision-making. The newest store may have some different conditions from that of ours, and thus they sell domestic cheeses better than us. Perhaps the new store has been adopting a successful advertising strategy that many customers choose domestic cheeses, or the cheddar cheeses were on sale during the period of time and this also attracted many buyers. It is also possible that the residents living around the newest store have different tastes about cheeses from that of our residents nearby. Maybe the cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin have already owned a good reputation among the customers of the newest store. However, unless the information such as the range of customers, the advertisements of cheeses and the tastes of our residents are given as well, the conclusion that we should follow the selling ways of the newest store can be made.
Furthermore, the result of the survey lacks credibility since no supportive evidence is shown to prove that the respondents of the survey are representative. Although in this argument, the arguer asserts that because the preference for domestic cheeses is increasing among subscribers of Cheeses of the World magazine, however, without checking whether these respondents represent the consumers of cheeses, the conclusion is questionable. Probably the magazine is not a good-selling magazine, and the subscribers are not as many as the arguer thinks, thus the opinions of these subscribers should not be paid so much attention to. In addition, there is no evidence that the subscribers of the magazine are truly the consumers of cheeses; the subscribers can be mostly interpreted as the people who are interested in cheeses instead of being considered as the consumers. Even assuming that the respondents are representative and the result of the survey is effective, perhaps the results of surveys in other magazines of cheeses indicated that the subscribers preferred imported cheeses, therefore the arguer should reconsider the preferences of cheeses.
What even more weakens the argument is that the arguer omits several other concerns that may improve profits in all of our stores. Besides the preferences of cheeses, the arguer should take into accounts other factors such as management, financial problems and the qualities of employees. It is reasonable that there may be some financial problems happened to our store in case that the expenses of our store should be reduced. In spite of this, the leadership in our store may also have some problems in managing the store and the selling levels of employees, if the several regulations of management can be amended, possibly the sale of cheeses in our stores can be improved and our store will benefit more.
As a consequence, to strengthen the arguer's argument, the arguer needs to provide more evidence about the conditions and situations of our store, the respondents of the survey, and the arguer also needs to consider other elements that influence the sales of our store. |
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