Argument208 【7\8\9\10】第十七次作业 8.7

DemiquaverUID: 203651

TOPIC: ARGUMENT208 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.

"Several recent surveys indicate that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners that are almost twice as energy-efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, we anticipate that the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase, and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants should not be necessary."


In the argument, the author concludes that construction of new generating plants should not be necessary. His conclusion basically relies on a conjunction that the total demand for electricity in the area will not increase and a fact that three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met needs. The argument seems to be well presented; under close scrutiny, however, I find it is flawed in several aspects.

To begin with, the conjunction of the total demand for electricity in the area is based on the evidence that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and there are more energy-efficient home appliances can be found on markets, in addition, new technology are available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. However, the evidence is insufficient to reach the conjunction. Energy saving appliance doesn't amount to money saving appliance. Homeowners are eager to conserve energy is probably because they think expense spent on energy will reduce in this way. Nevertheless, it is possible that price of these energy saving appliances and technologies are much higher than the traditional ones. Under this scenario, I'm afraid that few homeowners will decide to buy new appliances and apply new technologies. Therefore, whether the demand for electricity in the area will decline or not remains unknown.

Furthermore, the evidence for making the conjunction is based on the residential demand for electricity, which is insufficient to represent the whole situation of energy consumption. In an area, industrial use generally consumes much more energy and demand for more electricity than residential use. If there will be more factory establish in this area in recent years, demand for electricity will obviously increase rapidly. Lacking of information about development of industry in this area, the conjunction of the total demand for electricity in this area is hasty.

Last but not least, the author states that three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met needs, so that there is not necessary to build a new one. This statement clearly ignores a rapid development of need for power in the area which may possibly happen. The situation of the past 20 years cannot indicate present and future. A demographic condition is probably changing. The population in this area is growing bigger these years, more people than before choose to reside here. Therefore, demand for electricity will naturally increase in spite of application of energy saving home appliance in this area.

To sum up, this argument is not well reasoned as it stands. Before making the conclusion, the author should make sure than resident here will choose to buy energy saving home appliance and apply new technologies for home heating. Furthermore, he should consider the development of both industry and demography now and future in this area as well.

小猪sisiUID: 2453484

In the argument, the author concludes that construction of new generating plants should not be necessary. His conclusion basically relies on a conjunction that the total demand for electricity in the area will not increase and a fact that three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met needs. The argument seems to be well presented; under close scrutiny, however, I find it is flawed in several aspects.

To begin with, the conjunction of the total demand for electricity in the area is based on the evidence that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and there are more energy-efficient home appliances can be found on markets, in addition, new technology are available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. However, the evidence is insufficient to reach the conjunction. Energy saving appliance doesn't amount to money saving appliance. Homeowners are eager to conserve energy is probably because they think expense spent on energy will reduce in this way. Nevertheless, it is possible that price of these energy saving appliances and technologies are much higher than the traditional ones. Under this scenario, I'm afraid that few homeowners will decide to buy new appliances and apply new technologies. Therefore, whether the demand for electricity in the area will decline or not remains unknown.

Furthermore, the evidence for making the conjunction is based on the residential demand for electricity, which is insufficient to represent the whole situation of energy consumption. In an area, industrial use generally consumes much more energy and demand for more electricity than residential use. If there will be more factory establish in this area in recent years, demand for electricity will obviously increase rapidly. Lacking of information about development of industry in this area, the conjunction of the total demand for electricity in this area is hasty.

Last but not least, the author states that three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met needs, so that there is not necessary to build a new one. This statement clearly ignores a rapid development of need for power in the area which may possibly happen. The situation of the past 20 years cannot indicate present and future. A demographic condition is probably changing. The population in this area is growing bigger (larger) these years, more people than before choose to reside here. Therefore, demand for electricity will naturally increase in spite of application of energy saving home appliance in this area.

To sum up, this argument is not well reasoned as it stands. Before making the conclusion, the author should make sure than resident here will choose to buy energy saving home appliance and apply new technologies for home heating. Furthermore, he should consider the development of both industry and demography now and future in this area as well.
我觉得你这篇的逻辑点找得不是很准，特别是第一段，写得有一点拗口，思路上也有点转弯
我认为， 第一段攻击 人们是关心省点，电器也更加节能了，但是人数使用量的增加导致的用电量增加远大于节电数量，因此不能说居民用电量会下降
第二攻击：就是你的第三段 居民不能代表全部用电量，还有工业用电
第三攻击：即时用电量会保持或者略微下降，也需要建新的，因为旧的发电厂（用了都20年了）以前满足用电，但不代表以后会，因为发电能力逐年递减，或者发电厂的寿命小于20年，需要建新的来补充发电。