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发表于 2008-9-16 13:19:51 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

Behavioral Economics Analysis

of the consumption environment and return policies tend to impact on consumption

Abstract: In the transition economies, China has been one-sided place emphasis on “Holiday Economy” and the importance [url=]that[/url][微软用户1] interest rates played the role on increasing the residents` consumption, while ignored the consumption environment, and other soft conditions to the residents of an important impact on consumers` behavior. This paper used the Endowment Effect and Loss Aversion, and other theories of Behavior Economics to analysis the impact of China's consumer behavior factors, and explained the consumption environment and return policies to improve the residents of the importance of marginal propensity of consume .Adopted in Beijing, Heilongjiang and other places for consumers to the survey confirmed that in a series of affected residents in the marginal propensity of consume of factors, to improve the consumption environment and generous returns system was seen as the most important, Chinese society and the existing low level of trust issues in this area may be impeding the development of the reasons for the system, to this end, we propose businessmen and the government should take appropriate corresponding policy recommendations.


Keywords: Endowment Effect   Loss Aversion  

   Marginal propensity of consume Return Policy


FIRST-INTRODUCTION

(A)Research background

At presentChina is in a special transition periodand is in a phase of rapid economic growth, however current we are faced with the appreciation of the renminbi, export trade affected by the risks, and the stock market bubble, inflation and other pressures, price stability in the premise of targeted expansion of our domestic effective demand on China's economy sustained and stable development of the growing importance.

Since 2007, China's price fast [url=]rise[/url][微软用户2]  has had the enormous negative effect to the resident consumer behavior, so facing the new situation, looking for a new consumer promotion of an effective policy is imperative.

As China's economy was unbalanced regional development, led by big cities to Beijing earlier economic development and more mature, the overall standard of living of the residents is at a higher level, such as Heilongjiang, and other countries in the semi-defined remote areas, the relatively low standard of living of the residents. Traditional theory that residents of the absolute income gap between residents on the marginal propensity of consume have an important impact, but the "holiday economy" and low interest rates and other measures to increase the income of residents of the increase in China's consumer increasingly weakened the role of the fact that this has negative a conclusion. For an in-depth understanding of the impact of the Chinese people's marginal propensity of consume of factors, the residents of the marginal propensity of consume of how the elements of day-to-day role in the economic life of the residents, the author carried out the survey. China's regional differences for the issue, the paper will not only pay attention to Beijing residents of the state of consumer research, but also pay attention to the residents of remote areas of Heilongjiang consumer behavior, they hope that through the comparative analysis [url=]that[/url][微软用户3]  constructive results.

(B)Research Significance

[url=]Although the reform and opening policy, [/url]China's rapid economic development, but residents of the [微软用户4] marginal propensity of consume is only 0.68 (2005) [[1] YE Zong Yu, "China's urban residents in the marginal propensity of consume of empirical research," Economic Affairs in 2007 the first six pp.64 -66] far below international standards 0.79. Since 1998, the Government is stimulating consumer demand, increased vacation and implemented the macro-measures to reduce interest rates, but as time goes by, these two measures increasingly exposed the shortcomings: "holiday economy" in China to bring enormous pressure on transport , causing a large number of "transaction costs" ,a direct result of lower interest rates ,even negative real interest rates, as China's current inflation "fuse." In view of traditional economic theory the policy is of great disadvantages and therefore the new top priority should be able to find the theory of low-cost, effective solution to China's market "insufficient domestic demand, weak start" approach.

Behavioral Economics of the world economy is currently in the forefront of the academic community areas. 2002 Nobel Economics Prize was awarded to a representative of Behavioral Economics: Princeton University psychology professor Kahneman (kahneman) and George Mason University Professor of Economics Teweisiji (tversky), in this economy Academics caused a huge shock. Behavioral Economics is becoming the forefront of the field of economic circles. Foreign research on the economics of the ascendant and become a development trend, but on the behavior of China's economics is the lack of research, [url=]in[/url][微软用户5]  China's economic problems on the application is almost empty. In fact, people pay attention to acts of subjective psychological factors of economic theory can better solve our country's current negative consumer issues.

On the domestic research, the current consumption theory to consider the impact of the marginal propensity of consume of the factors is limited to income, the social security system, financial system, and other traditional factors, and lack of consumer orientation of China's marginal impact on the subjective factors the study. Some Chinese scholars only think of the "return" the impact of the system, not to mention the impact on marginal propensity of consume, in addition to the lack of income from other residents of various factors on China's marginal propensity of consume., no more scholars use the behavior theory to do research on China's consumption environment and the impact of the marginal propensity of consume of factors, in the field research conducted on the basis of data analysis. Consumer research on the economics of how the system affected the marginal propensity of consume has great potential, there is extremely broad study of space.

The research will not only help resolve the current development of China's economic development in the process of consumer issues, but also to fill China's Behavioral Economics Research and Application of the gaps, expand our economic research, promotion of Economics and International Studies convergence.

This paper is structured as follows: Section II of the economics of the decision-making conflicts, endowment effect theory of the consumption environment to the marginal propensity of consume of the impact of the third inspection tour of Beijing's tendency to affect consumer spending nine kinds of factors, and in the second test on the consumption environment and return the system to the conclusion; fourth conclusion of the study and make the appropriate policy recommendations.

SECOND-Research review and theoretical foundation

(A)Literature Review

Traditional economic theory on the consumption of a variety of theories, including the Keynesian theory of absolute income, Duesenberry's theory of relative income, Modigliani's life-cycle theory, Friedman's theory of a lasting income. Cairns stressed that actual spending is absolutely stable function of income; short-term consumer decision absolute income is the only important factor. And Du Senbei pointed out that consumption depends on the relative income level of consumption. Modilian think that his life depends on consumer income and property income. Friedman that the consumer depends on the lasting income residents, that is quite a long time, the income can be.
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沙发
发表于 2008-9-16 13:20:31 |只看该作者
Although the above theory from different angles on the consumer to explain, but they have the same flaw: The four theories assume that the marginal propensity of consume is fixed, consumption only by income factors, led to these theories, in many cases, particularly when people`s income level is raised to a certain extent, it's not possible that different people's consumption environment for differences between the acts. Therefore, the economic circles on consumer behavior to the micro-level concerns.
Kahneman, and other acts of economists in the study found that there is a lot of uncertainty in people's decision-making, and often based on standard assumptions of the rational choice to make widely divergent projections. They will combine economics and psychology, in experiments on the basis of that evaluation of the feelings, attitudes, better able to explain the economic behavior of human beings, and the emotional evaluation of the external environment plays a crucial role. They open up the prospect theory, the endowment effect, and so the new theory, we can better help explain consumer behavior. Kahneman, Knetsch, and Thaler (1991) proposed the concept of endowment effect, and adopted the method of inspection of the endowment effect on the economic behavior of people. Stacy L. Wood (2001) Application of the decision-making conflicts, such as endowment effect theory and practice of experiments on the loose in the consumer long-distance orders for the return of the affected system. Although the above theories from different angles on the consumer to explain, but they have the same flaw: the four theories assume that the marginal propensity of consume is fixed, consumption only by income factors, led to these theories, in many cases, particularly when people`s income level is raised to a certain extent, it's not possible that different people's consumption environment for differences between the acts. Therefore, the economic circles on consumer behavior to the micro-level concerns.
However, my research on consumer income mainly confined to the study of macroeconomic policy or the impact of environmental factors, such as Yuan Zhigang, Song Zheng (1999) pointed out that since China's reform and opening up while the expected income residents of the change changes, thereby affecting consumption ; Jialiang set, Chen Qiulin (2003) the existence of consumer credit from the perspective of consumer behavior was studied, pointed out that China's credit system is not sound as inhibiting the important reasons for China's consumption; Yuan Zhigang, Song Zheng (2000) investigated the ageing of the population and old-age insurance system for residents of China's consumption of important influence. Generally speaking, China's consumer research on the lack of consumer psychological analysis, the policy recommendations can not fundamentally solve China's residents tend to lower the marginal propensity of consume problem. As the income level rises, the residents of high-quality consumer awareness of the growing, the traditional income and credit, social security system has been unable to fully explain China's current people's consumption behavior, but also unable to accurately measure the impact of the marginal propensity of consume factors. To make up for China`s consumption of Economic Research `s limitation, the paper from acts of economic theory as the basis, field survey data as the basis to study the consumption environment, and other new factors and traditional factors on the impact of the marginal propensity of consume, which verified acts of economic theory and Businessmen to provide proof of the return policies tend to have an important impact on consumption.
(B)Research on consumer decision-making theory
People's consumption behavior addition to the traditional income effects, psychological factors are also more worthy of attention. In a traditional consumer theory, tend to be regarded as marginal propensity of consume by the subjective psychological factors, fixed constant, it can only help to enhance the consumption level of income. Credit system will only affect the improvement of people's inter-period consumption, indirectly raising the current income level, in the final analysis of the impact on consumption levels are still variables simply attributable to income. Economics of the founding of the psychological factors began to be seriously and introduced into the decision-making process, to study the factors affecting consumer opened up a broader space. In this paper, the Marginal propensity of consume as a variable, from the economics point of view of the marginal impact of the consumption factor.
People on the items of consumer decision-making can be divided into two phases: the time of purchase and the after purchases. In this two phases, respectively, have different psychological factors to the marginal propensity of consume have an impact.
(A) The first stage: the time of purchase
We can analyze this phase of the decision-making from three aspects.
First of all, as Kahneman by the pioneers of economics that people are limited rational, and its economic activities to a large extent depend on the preferences of economic behavior, attitudes, feelings, and other subjective psychological factors, such as the environment and system factors will have a significant impact on consumer behavior. The conclusion in 2003 by Tanner on food procurement as an example, Tanner found through the return of people's consumption desire and the consumption environment are positive related. This theory shows that people in the process of consumption vulnerable to the impact of external factors arising from the purchase of impulse, shopping environment and improve the convenience of consumers incentives will help improve consumption and increase sales.
Secondly, according to Simonson and ltamar`s (1992) study, preference reversal and regret, and other psychological factors cause people to make a decision after the often tend to change the decision-making, and the resulting opportunity cost is significant. Therefore, aware of their choices will have sense of regret and at the same time consumers had to pay the cost, people in deciding whether to buy a commodity, for the psychological damage would be inevitable to avoid the experience of the process of hesitation, that is the decision-making conflicts (Decision Conflict). Luce, Bettrnan, and Payne (1997) in further study pointed out that a longer period of decision-making contradictions make people more depth into the contradictions and then have a pessimistic mood, the consumer will eventually lead to the disappearance of consumption idea, that is, the marginal propensity of consume of 0, shortening Decision-making contradictory time is essential. The results from these two is not difficult to see that if people can be in a specified time, no reason to return, consumers will be able to regret the choice by making at very low cost to change the decision-making. So generous returns conditions so that consumers do not have to consider regret caused by a loss, thereby reducing the consumer decision-making at the hesitation of time and greatly reduce the contradictions decision-making process. Obviously, such a liberal consumer environment is conducive to raising the marginal propensity of consume.
Thirdly, for buyers and sellers of goods to the asymmetry of information, consumers need to get some signal from businessmen to reduce uncertainty. Relaxed conditions are conducive to the return of the increase in consumer confidence in shopping malls. Consumers often think, in terms of implementing the Merchant system returns the cost is expensive, only to provide high-quality products businesses can return to the guarantee. Therefore, consumers in the subjective, think the implementation of the system of liberal return let the businessmen provide a higher quality product evaluation. Wood (2001) make use of experimental methods on the return system to consumers ,which get a two-stage decision-making, the results showed that liberal return of consumer goods under the system of evaluation of the quality of return was higher than under the system of strict evaluation. On the other hand, consumer confidence in the quality of products improve their decision-making time to further shorten the conflict, thereby enhancing the marginal propensity of consume.
To improve consumption conditions and the creditworthiness of tendency to increase the marginal role in promoting consumption is obvious. But for liberal return system, on the one hand, business managers have to recognize that the system to shorten the time for decision-making contradictory is very effective, thus greatly enhance the marginal propensity of consume; on the other hand, business managers will retire on the loose cargo conditions may increase the number of returns and then implement the system returns expressed concern about the high cost of transactions. Following the second phase of consumers - after the purchase of the psychological factors, the results will show that although the liberal return system will increase the number of returns, but transaction costs resulting from that are often less than the marginal increase of the consumption gains.
(B) the second stage: after purchase
Kahneman and others (1991) study showed that people on the valuation of goods have endowment effect, by using the experiment system way he got the results: the owner will look the selling goods items as a loss, according to prospect theory, people avoid the loss, therefore, the owner of goods sold them by the requirements of the compensation to buy the same goods must be higher than he was willing to pay the price, which is endowment effect. The role of the endowment effect, if consumers buy the goods, depending on their own will for the owner of goods to return as their own losses, the purchase of goods have been higher than the subjective evaluation of the purchase when he paid the actual Price, and return the value of the return of consumers to pay only the original value (in fact tend to be less transaction costs), far below the consumer as the owner of the evaluation of the value of goods. So the impact of the endowment effect, consumers will be reluctant to purchase general merchandise returned.
Overall, relaxed environment for the return increases marginal consumption generated by the proceeds from the return could lead to an increase greater than the transaction costs. So as for the businessmen, the return system is feasible.
Such approaches as to improve the shopping conditions, increase credit level of return or provide a relaxed environment are to improve the consumption environment. Therefore, from the combination of the two stages, and we can see that the consumption environment which is improved by the outside has great impact on improving great the marginal propensity og consume. From considering the welfare of society as a whole, to improve the consumption environment can increase the businessmen's interests, but also to increase consumers` interests access to consumption which is from the effects of a Pareto improvement. In reality, the economic prosperity of the developed countries` consumption greatly benefited from good consumption environment. For example, the US’ tendency of high consumption but low savings is well known, many U.S. businessmen imply the return system by on reason, and the return period ranging from one month to one year, or even no time limit. Bao Guang-liang "" no reason to return "test" Made in China "," (2003) pointed out that the "Made in China" in the United States has made achievements of which is inseparable from the return system, a fact that further validates the conclusions that the consumption environment and return system have an important impact on the marginal propensity of consume, also prove that the businesses men could benefit more than the cost they get at the same time. As China's existing consumer protection system is imperfect, consumer spending will be limited long-term; we will use the following to Chinese consumers, the survey empirical study the current consumption by the consumer environment and businesses return policies.
Third-empirical analysis
To study the psychological impact on consumption, the survey is one of the necessary means. Our major concern is the consumption environment, but considering it at different income levels, the impact may not be the same, we choose two areas of investigation, the first group of selected is Beijing as the site survey, and 300 people were selected randomly as the investigation Object, then we select the second group of Heihe City in Heilongjiang Province as the second survey site, and 110 people were selected randomly as investigation targets. Beijing group`s final collected data: for the 280 valid questionnaires, efficient 93.3%, male to female ratio was 131:149. Heihe final group collected data: for the 103 valid questionnaires, the rate was 93.6 percent; the ratio of men to women is 26:77. Beijing's per capita income of 17,653 yuan, Heihe City to 7,829 yuan per capita income, the first group of per capita income was significantly higher than that the second group.
(A) the consumption environment and other factors
In order to study the environmental impact of consumption relative importance, we may choose a total of nine respondents which were asked as the factors, and ask them to a 1-5 scale marked every one of the factors for their impact on the level of consumption level; for no impact is 1,5means the impact increases substantially. (9 factors listed in the Annex)
First of all, with nine variable name instead of nine in the questionnaire by the study of factors, the credibility of such data for analysis. The variance-test, two sets of data can be passed inspection; these data are relatively stable, which means that the findings are reliable.

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板凳
发表于 2008-9-16 13:21:18 |只看该作者
Social Security
Impact        Credit        Stock market        Merchant
Credit        Shopping Centre
Conditions        Return Policy        Others consumption        Absolutely
Income        Relative
Income
Beijing group         Average        2.88         2.66         2.27         3.29         3.30         3.46         2.78         3.03         3.13
        Standard deviation        1.144        1.095        1.191        0.983        0.977        1.060        2.703        1.153        1.195
Heihe Group        Average        2.99         2.24         2.15         3.26         2.97         3.22         2.57         3.17         3.16
        Standard deviation        1.325        1.240        1.232        1.093        1.272        1.179        1.185        1.189        1.282
Impact of Mean, standard deviation table
(Note:1- no impact, 2-less affected,3- the impact of general, 4-a greater impact ,
5- a substantial increase)
Secondly, the income does not affect consumption`s test. To calculate the average impact on the consumer, we make a comparison between the two sets of data. Such as the impact of Mean, standard deviation table shows that the revenue impact on consumption, both consumer evaluation of the difference is not obvious. To verify this point, the use of SPSS LSD methods were compared in the income data on the impact of consumption on whether there are differences (see absolute income effect of different form), data analysis revealed that the two groups in income on consumption does not significantly impact on Differences, differences in income levels is not caused by factors affecting consumer assessment of the changes.
Absolute income effect of different form
组间        平方和
sum of squares        Df        均方
Mean square        F        显著性
Significance
/Pr>[t]
组内        1.477        1        1.477        1.093         .297
总数        515.019        381        1.352                  
总数        516.496        382                       

Once again, testing the consumption environment to the marginal impact of consumption, the impact table shows the average, although both consumer income levels were significantly different, but both consumers considered the credit business, merchant conditions, after-sales service as the impact of the largest single factor s`representative of the consumption environmental factors on their own consumption behavior ;further we make use of the data to analyze the two groups, inspected nine factors affecting the level of consumption on the difference which is significant or not. SPSS use of LSD in the method of multiple means of comparison, average factors such as differences in the results table.
(I) Factor        (J) Factor        Beijing group        Heihe Group
                均值差 (I-J)
deviation from mean        标准误
Standard error        显著性
significance        均值差 (I-J)
deviation from mean        标准误
Standard error        显著性
significance
4        1        .40714(*)        .09305        .000        .25233        .17076        .140
        2        .62857(*)        .09305        .000        1.03137(*)        .16994        .000
        3        1.01786(*)        .09305        .000        1.11650(*)        .17035        .000
        5        -.00714        .09305        .939        .29126        .17035        .088
        6        -.16786        .09305        .071        .03883        .17035        .820
        7        .65129(*)        .09313        .000        .68932(*)        .17035        .000
        8        .26429(*)        .09305        .005        .09709        .17035        .569
        9        .16429        .09305        .078        .10680        .17035        .531
5        1        .41429(*)        .09305        .000        -.03893        .17076        .820
        2        .63571(*)        .09305        .000        .74010(*)        .16994        .000
        3        1.02500(*)        .09305        .000        .82524(*)        .17035        .000
        4        .00714        .09305        .939        -.29126        .17035        .088
        6        -.16071        .09305        .084        -.25243        .17035        .139
        7        .65844(*)        .09313        .000        .39806(*)        .17035        .020
        8        .27143(*)        .09305        .004        -.19417        .17035        .255
        9        .17143        .09305        .066        -.18447        .17035        .279
6        1        .57500(*)        .09305        .000        .21350        .17076        .212
        2        .79643(*)        .09305        .000        .99253(*)        .16994        .000
        3        1.18571(*)        .09305        .000        1.07767(*)        .17035        .000
        4        .16786        .09305        .071        -.03883        .17035        .820
        5        .16071        .09305        .084        .25243        .17035        .139
        7        .81915(*)        .09313        .000        .65049(*)        .17035        .000
        8        .43214(*)        .09305        .000        .05825        .17035        .732
        9        .33214(*)        .09305        .000        .06796        .17035        .690
因素均值差异表
Beijing group and the Heihe set of data have shown that credit shopping centers, shopping centers conditions, after-sales service three factors mean where the difference was not significant, but three factors and other factors mean the difference is significant, with absolute income effect of differences in people's subjective judgments table evaluation of the consumption environment for their own marginal propensity of consume is greater than the impact of income, credit and other traditional factors.
(B) Return policies and analysis of the relationship between the types of goods
After investigation, in strict return system, the consumer don`t have confidence on goods because of the quality and give up the opportunity as many as 43.29 percent, and in one year,  the consumer was found the goods after bought but with quality problem can not retreat to happen 2.99 times on average.

Fagure1:Marginal propensity of consume increase in all types
To study specific types of merchandise return policies of the marginal propensity of consume of high-impact, we inspected the number that the respondents respectively increase in various types of consumer goods if there is no reason to allow businessmen will return goods to them. The results showed that (see all kinds of goods tend to increase the marginal situation)  relaxed conditions for return of all consumer goods increased by an average 27 percent, and on average consumers provide for the return period of 21 days will help them to make rational choices. Specifically, clothing marginal propensity of consume of goods increased the most, 30 percent, electronic products, daily necessities, durable consumer goods such as commodity marginal propensity of consume growth rate were 22% and 26%, 20%. This is because the necessities of daily necessities, durable consumer goods in the life of limited demand, so the two types goods`demand elasity is smaller, for these two types of the goods,to improve the environment has little affect on improving the marginal impact on consumption. On the contrary clothing and electronic products because of product characteristics, a higher elasticity of demand, the consumption environment for their marginal propensity of consume of high-impact.
(C) the relative income and the elasticity of return policies
Research shows that a lot of things in the analysis of the judgments, people often choose a frame of reference as a basis for (Kahneman and Tversky 1979), to their difference between the present situation and the the light level is more sensitive, so the responses of changes on people's consumption relative income are often more sensitive. Tsang Kwok-on, HU Jing-jing (2006) adopted on China's 1991-2004 data analysis, pointing out that since the 1990s the income gap between Chinese urban residents is the expansion of urban residents tend to decrease consumption of important reasons, to increase the income of low-income people can effective increase in consumption. However, the impact from this table the results mean, relative income has general impact on the marginal consumption, but still can not rule out the relative income through other means impact on marginal consumption `s possibilities. This article is also on the respondents to the survey relative income levels.

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地板
发表于 2008-9-16 13:21:49 |只看该作者
Return policy plans indicate that the relative income between the marginal propensity of consume by the impact of return policies, with the relative income levels increase it increases .However, when the relatively income becomes higher , such consumers want to be different from the others with preference for low-income ,they will choose senior malls, price for their marginal impact on consumption is weak, the representative of the quality of services and return policies on high-income consumers have a greater impact on the marginal propensity of consume.
(D) Hinder the improvement of China's consumption environment factors - trust
The above study shows that in order to enhance the country's marginal propensity of consume, it is necessary to improve the consumption environment. Survey results show that China's consumers consider that the consumption environment for their consumption impact is tremendous , indicating China's consumers have great demand on high-quality environment ,  which has related on China's consumption environment is not improving with the economic development.


Figure:In return rates
Analysis of long hampered China's consumption environment to improve the psychological factors, the paper also asked respondents to estimated the return rates if there is no reason to return goods and other immoral return rates (after the use of their own No value of goods returned). Traditional theory believes that rational people assume that in the conditions their return rates should be equal to others, but survey results show (see the situation return rates) respondents forecast to average 22 percent rates of return, return rates for others 29 percent, immoral return rates of 21%. Economics of the excessive self-confidence can be a better theory to explain this contradiction with the traditional theory of the phenomenon, namely, China's consumption environment due to strong presence of uncertainty, mistrust between the people are serious, that others ` return rates must be higher than that of their own ,and a large number of immoral acts of return, such a concept would hinder businessmen to take "no reason" returns, such as improving the consumption environment.
Fourth, conclusions and policy recommendations
According to the above analysis, this paper get he following conclusions: First of all, the paper through the use of economic policy contradictions, such as endowment effect on people's theory of consumer behavior analysis, pointing out that the marginal propensity of consume is not fixed, the outside world will improve the consumption environment on consumer behaviour and encourage people to shorten the time for decision-making conflicts, thus raising the marginal propensity of consume ;on the other hand, the endowment effect of consumers who have purchased goods on the evaluation of the value which is higher than actual value, so people often do not willing to return. Therefore, overall spending on the improvement of the environment will raise the marginal propensity of consume, consumers and businesses will improve the welfare.
Second, the empirical analysis of the survey also shows that domestic consumers think that the consumption environment impact their consumption behavior greater than previous studies of income, credit and other macroeconomic factors, that along with economic development, income is no longer decisive factor which affects China's consumer behavior, there is growing that consumers want high-quality to bring their own satisfaction, pay more attention to psychological factors. Therefore, improving the consumption environment can significantly reduce the domestic consumers` decision-making conflicts, enhance people's consumption attitudes, combine with the role of endowment effect, the marginal propensity of consume of the residents in China will improve the consumption environment and a substantial increase further, the marginal propensity of consume As residents of variables affect China's overall consumption.
But on the other hand, the relative income levels are affected by the consumption environment, and have an impact on the marginal propensity of consume. High-income bracket of the marginal propensity of consume of the consumer environment is not sensitive to changes, the income gap will thus weaken consumer environment to the marginal role of consumption.
Finally, for a long time China's consumer system is not perfect, the lack of satisfactory return system, the paper further use of excessive self-confidence theoretical explanation of China's consumption environment hindered the reasons for the increase: As businessmen do not trust the consumer which hindered the improvement of consumer enviroment,so domestic consumer spending potential has not been inspired by. Survey results also confirmed China's consumer economy does exist under the "no confidence" phenomenon, which hindered the improvement of China's consumption environment, thereby inhibiting our tendency to raise the marginal propensity of consume.
  Fan Conglai, Wang Hailong "" no reason for the return "of Economic Analysis," from the general equilibrium theory and welfare economics, concluded: government intervention`s target is the fields which increase the level of the social welfare, but because of external innovation, enterprises can not be implemented. According to the above conclusions, the paper is in the view of behavior economics to make the following policy recommendations on our country`s consumption: to promote consumption by the government's policy should change the focus from raising income levels t to increase the focus on marginal propensity of consume, and under different circumstances to take corresponding policies.
For the areas whose consumption environment reflect on the marginal propensity of consume  sharply, small gap between rich and poor, strong confidence in the people, improving the consumption environment not only increase the consumer welfare, but also can increase the profits of the businessmen. So businessmen will automatically improve the consumption environment, and the government need not take any measures.
  For the areas whose consumption environment reflect on the marginal propensity of consume  sharply, small gap between rich and poor or low degree of trust between the people of the region, due to the relative income and confidence in the negative role, which leads that even businesses improve the consumption environment will not increase profits. Therefore, the Government should play a role in the consumption environment mechanism to provide conditions that narrow the gap between rich and poor and improve China's consumer moral consciousness. At the same time, encourage businesses to raise the level of credit, and create a comfortable consumption environment, and improve returns and the introduction of the system.
For the areas whose marginal propensity of consume is not sensitive to the consumption environment, the government should not blindly require businesses to improve the consumption environment, but should look for other possible factors which impact the impact marginal propensity of consume ,and find out the corresponding solutions.

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发表于 2008-9-16 13:28:17 |只看该作者
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