COMMON小组 9.15作业 ourtrans

ourtransUID: 2241441

9月15日

你同不同意说印刷书在二十年后将不复存在...(2007.8.4)

In my opinion, it is impossible that printed books will be replaced with e-books within 20 years-- or it might be forever. There are two reasons for my prediction: first, a period of 20 years is not enough for the elimination of printed books; second, printed book has an innate advantage over e-book that ensures its survival.
In the first place, 20 years is a short period that is not sufficient to let printed book disappear. The printing industry today is still one of major industries--it has a huge number of equipments and enormous work force there. It is making abundant profits everyday. All these factors indicate that it is still in its growing period. Hence, according to the theory of Industry Life Cycle, we can definitely say that a period of 20 years is not enough for the elimination of this industry. On the other hand, even if we stop producing printed book right now, for instance, the existent books might need hundreds of years to naturally degrade unless we intend to destroy them. However, I cannot see a radical determinant for such an action.
In the second place, the concerns about the security of data will guarantee the survival of printed book. Along with the advancement of technology, e-book became more and more convenient because of its ready accessibility; in the meantime, its accessibility also put risk on the data. For example, hackers can easily obtain sensitive information in other people's computers. On the contrary, the traditional way to record data on paper is more secure than on electronic medium. This innate advantage of printed book will guarantee its survival until another more secure way to record data is available.
In conclusion, as the two aspects mentioned above, I strongly disagree that printed books will be replaced with e-books. At least, 20 years is not enough.

ansoncodeUID: 2528782

In my opinion, it is impossible that printed books will be replaced with e-books within 20 years-- or it might be forever. There are two reasons for my prediction: first, a period of 20 years is not enough for the elimination of printed books; second, printed book has an innate advantage over e-book that ensures its survival.(观点太过武断了，即使被替代，也不一定非得被ebooks替代啊，虽然是maybe,但forever感觉太绝对了吧)

In the first place, 20 years is a short period that is not sufficient to let printed book disappear. The printing industry today is still one of major industries--it has a huge number of equipments and enormous work force there. It is making abundant profits everyday. All these factors indicate that it is still in its growing period. Hence, according to the theory of Industry Life Cycle（这里可以展开，否则太笼统了）, we can definitely say that a period of 20 years is not enough for the elimination of this industry. On the other hand, even if we stop producing printed book right now, for instance, the existent books might need hundreds of years to naturally degrade unless we intend to destroy them. However, I cannot see a radical determinant for such an action.（这个想法很奇怪，什么都不干就在毁灭书,不能设想一个更合理的场景吗，比方说出现了新的主流传播介质）(观点很鲜明，但缺乏details和examples，故说服力不够)

In the second place, the concerns about the security of data will guarantee the survival of printed book. Along with the advancement of technology, e-book became more and more convenient because of its ready accessibility; in the meantime, its accessibility also put risk on the data. For example, hackers can easily obtain sensitive information in other people's computers. On the contrary, the traditional way to record data on paper is more secure than on electronic medium. This innate advantage of printed book will guarantee its survival until another more secure way to record data is available.(这段很好，有观点，有例子，有总结，如果能加上合适的引导trasition，就更好了)

In conclusion, as the two aspects mentioned above, I strongly disagree that printed books will be replaced with e-books. At least, 20 years is not enough.

ourtransUID: 2241441

多谢修改!
第二段最后几句话是说,纸质书自然降解需要百年的时间,除非我们主动人为的销毁它,否则不会在20年内消失.加上"unless we intend to destroy them"是为了保证逻辑的严谨.