Argument35【0906G 文以载道三月四月小组】第一周第二次作业 by 过期的蛋糕

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题目：
Argument35
The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia.
"Salicylates（水杨酸脂） are members of the same chemical family as aspirin,a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturallyrich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processingcompanies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives.This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found tocorrelate with a steady decline in the average number of headachesreported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently,food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be usedas flavor additives（食品香料） for foods. With this new use for salicylates,we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headachessuffered by the average citizen of Mentia."
水杨酸酯和用来治疗头痛的药物--阿司匹林是同一类化合物。尽管很多食品天然富含水杨酸酯，过去几十年中食品加工公司仍然在食品中加入它来作为防腐剂。这种水杨酸酯在商业上的使用被发现与我们为期20年研究的参加者所报告的头痛发病的平均数量下降是相关的。最近，食品加工公司发现水杨酸酯也可以被用作食品香料。根据这种水杨酸酯的新用途，我们可以预期Mentia居民患头痛症的数量将会持续稳步下降。

提纲：
1。同类化合物不代表有同样的功效对待头痛。
2。头痛者减少的原因还有很多，不一定是salycylates的使用造成的。（另外加一小点，在perservatives中的使用带来的效果不一定同样在additives的使用中出现）
3。participants in the study不能够代表the average citizen of Mentia。

正文：
This argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. At first glance, by pointing out that the rise in the commercial use of salicylates is correlated with a steady decline of headaches reported, the conclusion that a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia will occur after the further use of salicylates in flavor additives seems somewhat logical.

However, after a deep analysis, the threshold flaw of this argument is that the author makes an assumption that chemicals in the same chemical family have the same medical effect. As a matter of fact, there must be lots of chemicals in one chemical family, but only aspirin is chosen to use as a medicine to treat headaches, which means not all the members in this chemical family is capable of treating headaches. Perhaps, it is because of a certain special part of structure in aspirin that makes it useful, not because of aspirin belongs to this chemical family. In this case, without analyzing the exact reason why aspirin is useful in treating headaches, the author can not convince me that salicylates has the same function just because they belong to the same chemical family.

Moreover, the author's conclusion depends on the unfounded basis that the decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in their twenty-year study is coursed by the rise in the commercial use of salicylates. This argument overlooks many other possibilities to explain the decline. For instance, it is entirely possible that the environment in this area improved during the past twenty years, or the social pressure is lower than before, even, it might be due to the participants' own treatment by other method. Thus, only the correlation between rise in use of salicylates and decline in number of headaches cannot prove that the latter is just the result of the former. Even if I concede that the rise in use of salicylates contributes to the decline in number of headaches, it does not mean the use of salicylates as flavor additives will continue to course the same result. Preservatives and flavor additives are different items. Even with the same chemicals, the effect in human body could be quite different, since the produce procedures, the amount of use, and so on, are different.

Another assumption upon which the argument rests is that the participants in their study can represent the average citizen in Mentia. It is quite possible that people who participant in this study are thoes who consider health is important, so they pay attention to many facts in their daily life to avoid the headach. In this case, to establish a strong correlation, the study's sample must be sufficient in size and representative of the overall population of Mentia citizens. Lacking of such evidence of a sufficiently representative sample, the author cannot justifiably rely on the study to draw any conclusion whatever.

In conclusion, to improve this argument, the author should analyze all alternative possible reasons for the decline of the average number of headaches. Also, strong evidence to prove the sample in the study should be provided to make this argument thoroughly reasonable.

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