Argument53 【0906G 文以载道三月四月小组】第二周第一次作业 thanks ukcolor

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Argument53 【0906G 文以载道三月四月小组】第二周第一次作业 thanks ukcolor and colett
【Argument53】
Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
13年前，研究者研究了一组在受到不熟悉的刺激比如不寻常的气味和未知声音的录音时表现出轻微紧张的25名婴儿。他们发现这些婴儿比其他婴儿更可能在早秋怀孕，而早秋是他们的母亲分泌的melatonin--一种已知会影响一些大脑功能的荷尔蒙--因日照的减少而增加的季节。在今年早些时候所作的跟踪调查中，这些表现出紧张迹象的儿童--现在已经是十几岁--有一半以上认为自己害羞。显然，出生前melatonin的增加导致婴儿期的羞涩并且这种羞涩将延续至生命更晚的阶段
【提纲】
1.两个调查不可信
2.mild distress 和shyness之间错误类比
3.影响性格的环境因素
牢记ukcolor评语：
1.段首尽量要更能体现逻辑连接
2.论述要充分展开
The author concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life . To support the conclusion, the author cites a research in which 25 infants showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. The author also cites a follow-up study which shows more than half of these children identify themselves as shy after they grow up. I find the argument logically unconvincing in several respects.
A threshold problem with the argument involves the validity of the research and the follow-up study .First, the sample is too limited.The number of the participants of the reserch, 25,is insufficient,which may be suitable for a recreative gamble game but quite inadequate for a serious research project ,and whether most of the infants, or large portions of infants conceived in early autumn have the same symptom is open to doubt, thus the result of the survey lacks credibility and therefore could not lend strong support to the arguer's claim. The same problem exist in the follow-up study,in which the figure-- more than 1/2 --will not suffice the conclusion in the sense of statistics. Besides this，without any comparison with the corresponding group of infants born in other seasons ,no mater what behaviors the researched group has,  the result of the survey is meaningless.
Secondly, according to the statement, the conclusion relies on what might be a faulse analogy between mild distress and shyness.According to common sense, such distress is very likely to be out of instincts of self-protecting instead of the consequences of melatonin.
Finally，without further in-depth analysis to rule out other factors which might contribute to the result of the follow-up study, I cannot accept the conclusion it is due to M. According to common knowledge, people’s character, to a large extend, should attribute to the milieu in which he or she grew up. The author should consider all the factors that can affect a child’s character before he makes the conclusion.  The teenager has been ten more years old and has so much experiences in the society. Almost everything would affect one's characters and personalities, parents tempers, family atmosphere, interaction with peers and classmates , and so on. It is not guaranteed that the melatonin causes the problem without further in-depth analysis to rule out other factors which might contribute to the result.
In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster it the argument must demonstrate--perhaps by way of a reliable study--that there is a cause-and-effect relationship between melatonin and the reactions of infants.To better assess the argument, the author also need to conduct a research of the specific function of the melatonin , and the factors which might affect the characters of participants.