【☆09GRE作文冲刺组】圣斗士2月11日作文Arguemnt

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题目：ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."


In the letter to the editor of Balmer Island, the author asserts that by limiting the number of mopeds from 50 per day to 30 in summer, the amount of moped accidents can largely reduce. To bolster this argument, the writer takes a neighboring island of Torseau, which enforced similar policy last year, as a success example. At the first glance, this argument is reasonable to some extent, however, after close scrutiny I found out a serial of doubts, which make the argument inconvincible any more.

To begin, the author’s first assumption is superficial that the incensement of Ballmer’s population is directly related to the accidents of mopeds and pedestrians. First, the merely statistic of 100.000, the number of people increased this summer, cannot necessarily indicates that the population of Balmer is soaring. Lacking comparison of pervious years’ statistics, it entirely possible that this year the increscent of population actually lower than every before. Also, if population was already very high, say more than 99.000; then, this evidence is father meaningless. Secondly, we didn’t know whether the population the speakers cited involves the number of tourist. If it was the case, maybe after this summer, Balmer Island’s population will decrease, so that this recommendation does not have significant value. Even though the number of citizen has enhanced, the author does not provider us any specific evidence showing that this increscent is just the main reason due to the mopeds accidents.

In addition, according to this letter, it seems affirmatory that the policy of reducing available rentals will benefit to the moped accidents, however, the author overlooks the differences between Torseau and Balmer, which may bring very different results to Balmer Island. On the one hand, there is no evidence to ensure that Torseau has not made any other polities to maintain the traffic. Maybe the achievement Torseaus made is owed to another effective measure rather than simply limiting the number of rentals. Also, only considering the last year Torseau’s situation is far from adequate. If the last year’s situation is an exception, and in many other years Torseau’s accidents of mopeds were increasing, then the author cannot confirm that it is the limitation that makes the rate of accidents reduced. On the other hand, even though the policy is effective in Torseau, it does necessarily means that the Balmer is able to receive the same positive result as Torsean, since the author overlooks the different between the two areas, even though they are neighboring.

Beyond the two points I mentioned above, there are many other factors should be taken into account. First, the number of privacy owned mopeds still need to be considered, which may account for a bulk of the mopeds. After all, limiting the number of rentals has nothing to do with those provide mopeds. Furthermore, besides of the policy the author suggests in the letter, are there any other measures also need to be taken? For example, improving the traffic rules, or strengthening people’s safety consciousness may has much more considerable merits than the limitation of rentals.

In sum, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the recommendation the writer must provide clear evidences--perhaps by way of a local survey or study--that the population is ever growing, the majority of mopeds is privacy or not, and in the accidents concerned with mopeds, whether the pedestrians obey the traffic law. To better assess the recommendation, I also need to know the exactly main reason that contributes to the accident reduction in island of Torseau.