Argument65 永不言弃第八次作业 by stgzhao 7#

stgzhaoUID: 2583165

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 430          TIME: 00:27:47          DATE: 2009-2-12 10:49:27

1. 威斯康星的切得奶酪在最新开的店面内销售很好不一定全国范围其他店面内卖的都好。因此不能断定该种奶酪是否畅销，而因此增加所有国产奶酪存货量更是无从说起。
2. 该杂志仅是在他的订阅者范围内做的调查，不具有普遍性。
3. 国产奶酪热销未必进口奶酪遇冷。

In this memo, the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States indicates that the best way to improve their profits in all of their stores is to discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses since their company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory. The conclusion is mainly based on the phenomenon that the five best-selling cheeses at their newest store last year were all domestic cheddar cheeses form Wisconsin and a survey by Cheeses of the World magazine which indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. I find this argument logically flaws in several aspects.

To begin with, the fact that domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin were the five best-selling cheeses at their newest stores last year does not indicates a nationwide increase in the sales volume of this kind of domestic cheeses. It is entirely possible that people living in the place where the newest store locates have a preference for this kind of domestic cheeses, but people in other places do not. It is also possible that last year they all ate this kind of cheese which makes them tired of this taste and want to make some change. Therefore the argument fails to prove that domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin do sell well nationwide.

Secondly, due to the survey by Cheeses of the World magazine is only among its subscribers, the survey cannot represent the whole nations' preference. Perhaps Cheeses of the World's subscribers have this increasing preference for domestic cheeses as a result of the proposal published in the magazine. In this case, others may still be fond of imported cheeses. The argument unwarrantedly asserts that the entire nation has an increasing preference for domestic cheeses.

Finally, even if the sales volume of domestic cheeses does increase, there is no strong evidence shows that imported cheeses will be abandoned. Perhaps imported cheeses still sell better than domestic cheeses or maybe people will buy cheeses both domestic and imported. Lack of such evidence I will remain unpersuaded to the conclusion that they should discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.

In sum, the argument unwarrantedly draws the conclusion that they should focus on selling domestic cheeses based on a out-of-date local sales volume and a small number survey by a magazine. To better evaluate the argument I need to know the original sales volume of domestic cheeses and imported cheeses. I will also need to know the trends of how cheeses' sales volume changes of the whole nation.