Argument10 永不言弃第二十二次作业 by stgzhao 7#

stgzhaoUID: 2583165

TOPIC: ARGUMENT10 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.
"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."
WORDS: 507          TIME: 00:27:12          DATE: 2009-3-1 10:23:14

The argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. The author advocates that the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk price to lower and ensure an adequate supply of milk for consumers. To justify his claim, the author cites a series of data showing that dairy farms in Batavia has greatly increased in ten years while the price of milk at he local Excello Food Market (EFM) has also increased. However, there some intermediate steps that one could take before jumping to the conclusion due to the incomplete data and unwarranted assumptions.
To begin with, whether the price of milk in local EFM can represent the average price in Batavia is open to doubt. The argument provides no evidence that can justify this, which undermines the credibility of the price data. Lacking of such evidence it is entirely possible that EFM makes a greater price of milk because of its location in a more prosperous area.
Even if the data of price increasing is credible, the argument commits a fallacy of hasty generalization due to some reasons. First, the argument fails to provides the number of the original dairy farms in Batavia, lack of such data one can hardly tell if there is enough dairy farms  in Batavia even though the number is now 25 percent greater that is was 10 years ago. Second, the argument fails to consider other possible alternative explanations to the fact that the price of milk has increased form $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. Such alternatives may include a general increase of commodity prices. After all, today's economy is developing so fast that 10 years is long enough for the commodity price to increase greatly. In addition, the situation talked above that there may be an inadequate number of dairy farms in Batavia is also possible to explain the increase of milk price. Either scenario, if true, would serve to undermine the conclusion that farmers have received EXCESSIVE profits, let alone that conclusion that there is an apparently increased supply of milk.
Finally, the conclusion that regulating retail milk prices is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers relies on the unsubstantiated assumption that after lower the milk price by government force the supply of milk will remain adequate. Merchants are all venal, which means if the profit of dairy farms has decreased greatly due to the regulation by Batavia government, they are much likely to tend to other fields for a living. This, if happens, will lead to an inadequate supply of milk and every thoughtful man can predict the aftermath that the price of milk will increase then.
In sum, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the argument does not lend strong support to what the author maintains. To strengthen the argument, the author would have to provide more evidence concerning the supply-demand relationships in Batavia's milk market. To better evaluate this argument I also need to know whether the farmers are actually receiving excessive profits of milk.