Argument提纲 =So What=小组第1次作业 by 灿烂千阳灿烂

灿烂千阳灿烂UID: 2538650

1.
提纲：
1.
Plainsville 的运动鞋和服装卖得好以及运动俱乐部生意好不代表当地的residents 就concerned with healthy lives. 也许只是最近比较流行运动风，当地的居民为了追求时尚而追求这些，并不是真那么care。
2.
the local health club五年前差点倒闭，最近has more members，多到什么程度呢？并且比较的基础本来就很低，都快倒闭了嘛。五年前就要倒闭的，为什么还撑到现在？是不是有一些什么战术上的调整？或者换了领导层，带来了新思想？weight training and aerobics classes爆满可能是因为俱乐部为了促销做活动？
3.
当地的schoolchildren要求参加健康生活的program，不一定就会来买Nature's Way公司的食物和相关产品啊。。。可能这个program是在教育部门的要求下完成的，那我们应该去与他们谈合作而不是再建一个新的store啊。
4.
previous experience is nothing， 不足以说明现在以及今后的问题。不能对即将到来的商业计划起决定性的作用。

NO.2
The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.

"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting."

1.
七年前的事情没有说服性。
2.
即使现在的情况还和七年前一样，average property values tripled并不一定是由于采用了那个restriction的原因，或许是由于换了new community leader，能够很好的团结带动大家勤劳致富。说不定有什么投资商很满意他们，投了很多钱。也许本来要投更多的钱，但就是他们adopt that set of restrictions 不愿意投那么多钱，导致本来也许不止triple的，后来只能triple了呢。
3.
即使上述两条都成立，但别的社区的经验也不能完全follow，基础啊，环境啊，居民的态度啊，经济情况啊，也许都不适合这样的restriction。
4.
想要raise property values是好的，但应该理性、全面地分析具体情况，得出最终应该如何努力奋斗的结论。

NO.3
The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis.

"In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work."


1.
去年3年去大公司的人数下降的具体原因没有分析，是刚好碰到经济危机，政策向小公司倾斜还是别的什么原因呢？
2.
高的salaries也是job satisfaction的一部分啊，这些选择去小公司工作的也许是因为不够qualified去大公司，也许进入大公司的标准很严格；又或许小公司给了他们更多的学习机会，他们觉得便于提升自己。
3.
对于一年级学生的调查根本不能说明问题，他们刚进入学校，对于就业的问题还没有现实和清醒的认识，只能靠imagination和听说。到了毕业要就业的时候说不定就变了。
4.
不去大公司的原因不一定是没有更多的福利、激励以及工作时间过多，没有调查和资料说明具体原因是什么。也没有资料说明大公司想要争取更多的law student去他们公司就业，也许早就想裁员简编。如果真的是想争取的话，也应该拿出更全面的调查数据才能做出相应调整。

NO.4
The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.

"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town-Adams Realty and Fitch
Realty-Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In
contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams'
revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home
sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed
with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch
and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another
home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you
want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."

1.
the quantity and whether they are part-time or full time prove nothing. 真正决定作用的是效率和效果。
2.
收入与卖房子的快慢没有必然联系，也许收入低，压力更大，会更卖命地卖，卖的更快。
3.
平均房价也没有什么参考价值，也许Fitch卖的房子本身价值就要比Adam低很多，能卖出这个价已经难得。
4.
十年前要F卖的a home，和一年前要A卖的another home当然不能比较，时间不一，卖的又不是同一房子。并且只说了A卖的快，没说卖的价钱高啊。

5.The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.

"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of
arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next
twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the
treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe
that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the
best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable
pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years,
and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the
drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable
pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new
drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by
seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of
arthritis."

1.
关节炎不一定非要用药治疗啊，可能会有别的医疗方法出现。
2.
Xe三年到期了，其他公司不一定那么快能生产出a cheaper version of the drug，而且B公司自己也可以进一步研发出超过Xe和Xy的药啊。
3.
这个新药只对10个人进行实验，数量太少，不说明问题，并且10个中还只有7个Prefer。并且这10个是患的the most extreme cases of arthritis. 那一般性的关节炎呢？ 有无副作用呢？后期观察时间也不够啊。

6.The following was written as a part of an application for a small
business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable
enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our
proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself.
Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended
Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live
in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz
Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study
indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on
jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make
money."

1.
对于真正喜欢音乐的人来说，65公里也不算远哪，可能有了固定的顾客群，新的俱乐部即使再近也无法吸引顾客。
2.
愿意参加爵士节不代表愿意去俱乐部，爵士音乐家住在这与俱乐部没有关系，他们也许在自己家就很享受了，他们的喜欢爵士的朋友可能受邀去他们家里而不会去俱乐部。或者已经有了自己的团体，就不需要俱乐部交友的形式了。音乐电台也更加丰富完善了接触爵士的mechanism，更加说明俱乐部很多余。
3.
国家层面的研究不能说明当地的问题。1，000也许人家更愿意花在唱片或演唱会上。


7.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview
newspaper.

"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann
Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank
Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members
are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the
number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have
increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients
with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental
problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."

1.
镇议会的成员不支持不代表FB不支持，说不定大家觉得FB能影响那些member，使得环境保护措施更有利实施。
2.
过去那些工厂的翻倍可能由于C镇发展的需要，经济建设为主；医院接待了更多呼吸道的病人是否因为工厂造成空气质量下降的原因？还是有大家都未发现的传染疾病？需要深入调查，不能妄下结论。
3.
AG是那个组织的成员也不一定上任后真能解决问题。

8.The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning
department at Omni Inc.

"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its
products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong
growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year,
and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales
over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in
reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack
food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing
Diabolique Salsa throughout the country."

1.
MF只在全国小范围内有市场，不一定能推广，说不定他家的点心有地域限制性呢？
2.
20%的增长要看底数是多少，也许本来就不多，那20%增长也没有多少。DS这种产品在过去三年畅销，接下来是否还能畅销，要继续调查。
3.
OI公司的客户群是针对14-25岁，但没有资料说明MF的产品也符合。且推广至全国仍需进一步调查。

9.The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.

"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that
encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their
professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher
grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have
risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades
at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not
been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha
University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega
University should now terminate student evaluation of professors."

1.
15年前的事情，太久远了，不具有参考价值
2.
不一定是Inflated，老师评估后，可能老师有压力了，教学质量改进，所以学生成绩确实提高了。
3.
O大学的毕业生找工作比不上A大学，是采用评教制度前就是这样还是之后才这样呢？是硬件软件等本来就比不上A还是别的原因呢？也许与这个无关。
4.
要想找到好工作，应该多在如何引导学生找工作的问题上多下功夫。不排除这个制度的原因，但是没有任何可靠的证据可以说明两者之间的联系。

灿烂千阳灿烂UID: 2538650

10.  1.
比起10年前数量的增加也许是市场的需要，人口增加，奶制品需求增加，而农场数量的增加并不导致收益的直接增加。
2.
牛奶价格的增长也许是确实各个程序的成本变高了，今天同等价值的货币没有15年前值钱，所以这个增长也许并不多，农民并没有receive excessive profits.
3.
政府只规范零售价也只是一部分呀。并且如果真的农民没有过分的收入，这样一规范，说不定很多农民的收入不足以支持整个家庭，不能继续从事这个行业。并不能保障充足的供应。



11.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West
Egg.

"Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which
is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five
years. During the past two years, however, town residents have been
recycling twice as much aluminum and paper as they did in previous years.
Next month the amount of material recycled should further increase, since
charges for garbage pickup will double. Furthermore, over ninety percent
of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more
recycling in the future. Because of our residents' strong commitment to
recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for
considerably longer than predicted."



1.
consultants 预测的是五年，现在还只过去两年啊，并且town residents recycle铝和纸不代表垃圾啊。循环利用的增加就代表投放在填埋池的垃圾会减少吗？
2.
收费double，循环利用就会增加吗？也许本来收费就很低，加倍了以后也没多少，或者，居民根本就不在乎这个钱。又有可能，能循环利用的垃圾只占原来投放到填埋地的小部分，其他垃圾必须直接扔到填埋地，这样看来，即使所有能循环的都循环了，垃圾也没减少多少。
3.
调查是否可信？科学吗？哪里发起的？被调查者的基数是多大？如果本来就没多少，90%也没意义。他们调查的时候说的到时候会真正做到吗？
4.
居民垃圾也许只是一部分，该地的其他方面的垃圾呢？没有交代如何处理的。是否他们仍垃圾的数量会减少呢？


12.The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta
Manufacturing.

"During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more
on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts
are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant
contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep
deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job
accidents at Alta and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten
each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get
adequate amounts of sleep."

1.
作者没有给我们提供原来两个工厂工伤的数据，也许原来AM比PI的工伤数量多40%，去年才多30%，数据反而是下降了的。如果不是下降，那也应该告诉我们具体的数量，比如如果人数都是10，其中工伤A是3个，P是1个，那也没有多多少。
2.
导致工伤的原因不一定就是疲劳，而且即使是疲劳，也不一定是工作带来的。P工厂工伤少也不一定就恰好是因为每班工作时间短一个小时。
3.
减少每班时间后，没有证据和保证说工人一定会把这多出来的时间用来休息以便提高工作效率，可能聚会娱乐运动等，这样根本不可能提高产出。
4.
工伤数量增加，没有数据表示产出就少了，虽然看似有这样的关系存在，但还是应该提供可靠的证据


13.The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video
game company.

"We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to
produce a video game based on the soon-to-be-published children's book
"Squirrel Power," by Peter Wood. While the cost of the rights is
substantial and will place economic constraints on our company in the
short-term, there are two reasons that the purchase of these rights will
undoubtedly be a wise investment. First, Wood's last three books have been
best sellers and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable.
Second, the popular characters and story line in "Squirrel Power" will
save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs."

1.
前三本畅销，电影受欢迎不一定做成的video game就畅销，作者没有告诉我们目标读者和观众，买这些书和看电影的人都是什么年龄层次和职业背景，会来买video game吗？文中只是说profitable,也许是基于这两个行业的特点，到了video game这个行业就不行了呢？何况电影还只是基于第一本书的。
2.
现成的人物和剧情是流行，但也许对于玩游戏的人来说就是追求新鲜刺激。
3.
短期的经济压力对公司不一定是好事，很容易就变成长期的负债。技术人员想要涨工资，或公司紧急需要资金运转，这种经济压力很可能带来无可估量的后果。



14.The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb
Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in
growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month
indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh
vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine
Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a
row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by
greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners
this coming spring."

1.
evidence是否可靠，是哪些消费者，背景如何，回答是否诚实，组织者是谁。
2.
national survey不一定符合当地的情况，也许地理、气候、人文习惯等等原因造成相差很远。消费者不满意超市提供的蔬菜不代表他们对自己种菜感兴趣，要看多么不满，并且他们可以采取其他的方式解决。杂志的具体售量？也许本来就很少。
3.
园艺杂志售罄持续的时间只有3个月，接下来大家还会继续这么大力度的关注吗？是不是因为近期相关活动举办的原因？并且杂志售罄不代这些人就会去自己种蔬菜。




15.The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire
to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today
low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food
products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and
cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their
profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders
to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this
company."


1.
survey的可信性，不重复了。
2.
意欲减少含脂肪和胆固醇的食物，不代表真的就不会买了。
3.
很多OD公司的产品含很多脂肪和胆固醇，有可能是刚好必须的那一部分产品，大家还是会继续购买。


16.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper
from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.

"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to
supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria
spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program
treats far more people than our state's program does. If we were to
establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be
used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new
lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our
capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average
of $50 per person per year on gambling."

1.
两个不同州不能比
2.
开始lottery与增加了对每个小学生的开支寄公共医疗项目能治愈更多人之间无cogent 联系。
3.
只在capital city 进行的调查不能说明问题，他们花￥50在赌博上，那以前是多少呢？说不定比这个数字还要大。


17.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove
town newspaper.

"Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal
(which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove
for the past ten years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its
monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still
$2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ
collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover,
EZ-which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks-has ordered
additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of
respondents to last year's town survey agreed that they were 'satisfied'
with EZ's performance."

1.
EZ一周收两次垃圾的效果不一定表示比ABC每周只收一次垃圾的效果好。
2.
新增卡车的数量，是否用于该镇收垃圾之用呢？
3.
调查的可信性，不重复。


18.The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.

"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered
its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads.
But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has
failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident
rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to
improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind
of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago:
increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler
County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent
fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were
five years ago."

1.
新规则实施后司机超速，说明司机的问题而非规则本身。交通事故只减少了一点点，但说不定不实施新规则，会很严重。
2.
两个不同地方、不同时间不可比。


19.The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band
named Double Rice.

"One year ago, tickets for Double Rice's concerts in stadiums around the
country took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out
at all. But the band has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity
among 14 to 25 year olds, and the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in
Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes. Clearly the ticket sales in
Megalopolis are a result both of the band's increased popularity and of
the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib advertising
agency. Thus, in order to ensure that the band's success in Megalopolis is
repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to duplicate the
Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale."

1.
一年前不能跟现在比。
2.
售得快，也只是针对14-25岁，且只是售出30，000张，是在大城市，这些都不能与全国性的类比。
3.
流行等不一定归功于广告。
4.
地方性公司不一定能在全国做成功。


20.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island
Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer
months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and
pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of
mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental
companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By
limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50
percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the
neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced
similar limits on moped rentals."

1.
事故发生与限制的必要性之间无必然联系。
2.
租赁公司不一定是这些车的主要来源。
3.
两地不可比，时间也不宜。
4.
50，30的数量依据何在？